Brewers vs Blue Jays Predictions, Picks, Odds: Gausman Lights Up Milwaukee Lineup

The Toronto Blue Jays will send out Kevin Gausman this afternoon at Rogers Center to win the three-game set vs. the Milwaukee Brewers after splitting the first two of the series. 

With an afternoon getaway game and an elite strikeout matchup for Gausman, can the Toronto ace top a strikeout total that's still being priced at plus money?

I break it all down in my MLB betting picks for Brewers vs. Jays below.

Brewers vs Blue Jays odds

Brewers vs Blue Jays predictions

The Milwaukee Brewers are one of the heaviest K% teams in baseball at 25.3% on the season and now face Kevin Gausman, who's punching out an impressive 32% of the batters he's seeing.

With an out market sitting at 18.5 and paying -120 to the Over, Gausman is going to see plenty of strikeout-prone batters this afternoon.

Gausman is projected to see 25 batters, per THE BAT, and if he can increase his K% numbers in a plus matchup, a 9-strikeout day is very possible. A 35% K-rate works out to 8.75 strikeouts over 25 batters. 

The Toronto Blue Jays starter could see a weaker lineup thanks to a night-to-afternoon game and a getaway game is also a decent spot to target Unders and poor at-bats. 

The Brewers at +170 is my preferred side but that has a lot to do with price. Milwaukee is just a strikeout-heavy lineup where the majority of the lineup owns a 22.5% K-rate or higher. There are six regular hitters with a K% higher than Rowdy Tellez at 24%.

This is one of the better strikeout matchups Gausman has had all season and with the conditions, I’m bumping up his strikeout potential, which is giving plenty of value on his Over 7.5 strikeouts at plus money. He's topped this number in seven of his last 10 starts.  

My best bet: Kevin Gausman Over 7.5 strikeouts (+105)

Brewers vs Blue Jays moneyline analysis

Toronto has been decently favored in this series closing at -150 or shorter in both games — taking the opener and losing last night. This afternoon’s moneyline has seen some Toronto love as it opened as long as -180 and is currently as short as -200.

I think the buy-back point on the Brewers is at +170 as the Jays’ offense has been too inconsistent and I think Freddy Peralta is being undervalued in this spot.

Obviously, the big reason for the 50-point move toward Toronto is Kevin Gausman but I don’t see a 50-point matchup difference compared to yesterday's Julio Tehran vs. Alek Manoah and Tuesday's Adrian Houser vs. Yusei Kikuchi. The value is with the Brewers and the arm of Peralta.

The Milwaukee right-hander has been a sub-4.00 ERA pitcher for three straight seasons and is pitching better than his numbers suggest. He’s a true outcome pitcher who strikes out more than a batter per inning, can get in trouble with walks, and is dealing with a HR/FB rate that is well above his career rate.

With the roof open and some hot temperatures projected, the long ball should be suppressed today in Toronto which will help Peralta more than the groundball Gausman.

Both offenses have been disappointing this season and the Jays have been heavily relying on guys like Kevin Kiermaier (second on the team in OPS) and Whitt Merrifield to move the line. 

Matt Chapman might be waking from a slumber but he still hit .202 with a .585 OPS in May. Vlad Guerrero posted a .760 OPS in May and is in danger of seeing that number fall below .800 on the season. He’s also slashing .241/.306/.310 with zero home runs at home this year. Of his 21 hits at home this year, just six have gone for extra bases. 

The middle of this Toronto lineup is not a giant threat and Toronto has struggled to give run support to Gausman with the Jays going 5-6 SU over his 11 starts and scoring just 3.09 runs per game.

The Jays could also be missing some important middle-inning relievers in Adam Cimber, Trevor Richards, and Tim Mayza, who have pitched heavily over the last two days and will likely be unavailable.

This is more a fade on the Jays at this price but Peralta is not a bad pitcher to bet on at +170. I can’t see the Jays getting any shorter than -200 here. 

Brewers vs Blue Jays Over/Under analysis

This total opened at 8.5 and many books have moved to 8 as of 9 a.m. ET. There are some books still posting the 8.5 and if bettors can find them, the Under is the play.

Both offenses have their issues scoring runs and the starting pitching matchup pits two sub-4.00 ERA career pitchers.

The Jays are missing some middle-inning pitchers but Gausman is projected to pitch into the seventh inning, which could alleviate those issues while the Brewers will have all arms available except for Joe Payamps.

The weather and hitting conditions should favor the pitching today, as well. Bettors could see some 80-degree temps this afternoon and Rogers Center suppresses runs when the roof is open.

Add in an afternoon getaway game for both teams and bettors could see a quick match. I’m betting this Under 8.5 which was available at -120 at Betway at the time of writing. 

Brewers vs Blue Jays game info

Starting pitchers

Freddy Peralta (5-4, 4.64 ERA): Peralta is coming off a rough start that also included one of his teammates getting taken to the hospital after getting a foul ball to the head, so I'm not reading too much into that start. Heading into that game, he had recorded a quality start in four of his previous five starts including a game in Coors, vs. the Dodgers, and vs. the Rays. He has a 58:23 K/BB ratio over 54 1/3 innings and is giving up less than a hit per inning. He's getting tagged with the long ball and a 13.2% HR/FB ratio which isn’t great for the flyball pitcher. The Brewers are 5-5 SU in his starts this year and THE BAT projects 88 pitches, 15.4 outs, 5.07 strikeouts, and 2.74 earned runs.  

Kevin Gausman (3-3, 3.03 ERA): Gausman will take the ball for the 12th time this year. He’s allowed more than two runs just once in his last seven starts, has a solid 89:16 K/BB ratio over 68 1/3 innings, and owns a 2.10 ERA and a 0.90 WHIP at home across four starts. Toronto is 5-6 SU when he starts thanks to some poor run support (3.09 runs per game). THE BAT is projecting 101 pitches, 18.7 outs, 7.38 strikeouts, and 2.45 earned runs. 

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The Under is 3-0-1 in the last four meetings in Toronto. Find more MLB betting trends for Brewers vs. Blue Jays

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