The St. Louis Cardinals are trying to get back on track in the NL Central race and will send one of their top prospects to the hill for the first time in 2023. Meanwhile, the Milwaukee Brewers will answer with Corbin Burnes, who is still looking to replicate his strikeout success for the 2023 campaign. However, a red-hot St. Louis lineup won't make that an easy task.
Let’s break down the Brewers vs. Cardinals in our MLB picks and predictions for Wednesday's matchup.
Brewers vs Cardinals odds
Brewers vs Cardinals predictions
It seemed for all the world that the St. Louis Cardinals were back on track after going for 18 runs in the opening game of this series, but this offense fell on hard times once again when it had to face Wade Miley and a host of the Milwaukee Brewers' relievers. With a thoroughly depleted bullpen, I think the Brewers will be up against the wall on Wednesday.
Corbin Burnes hasn’t delivered the goods yet like he’s done in the past. His 3.62 xERA puts him right back to where he was before his breakout, and the biggest reason for that is his strikeout rate which has plummeted from 30.5% to 21%. His hard-hit and barrel rates are more or less in line with where they were last year, but the strikeouts have come down and the walks have come up.
The Cardinals may not be hitting as well as they’d like to right now, but they’re Top 10 in walk rate over the past two weeks and striking out in a low 20.7% of plate appearances. This team is still flashing some pretty solid power along with those numbers, so I see some value in betting on this St. Louis offense.
As mentioned earlier, Milwaukee's relief corps saw plenty of action in yesterday's game, so expect the Cards to have plenty of opportunity to put runs on the board.
My best bet: Cardinals team total Over 3.5 runs (-130 at DraftKings)
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Brewers vs Cardinals moneyline analysis
It’s hard to figure out where to go on the moneyline here. It’s a true pick ‘em with Burnes coming in with some issues and the Cardinals riding a rollercoaster. On the other side, you’ve got a pitcher we haven’t seen in a year, who has shown signs of improvement in Triple A but has yet to pitch well in the big leagues.
This is a total stay away here because I don’t know what to expect from Matthew Liberatore. His ERA managed to come in under four runs in his minor-league starts, but he did have a 5.97 ERA in 34 2/3 innings last season. The team tried him in the bullpen as well as the rotation to no avail.
Liberatore’s curveball is a good pitch, but he’s yet to really prove he can elevate from the prospect level to a big-league pitcher. Could it happen tonight? Sure, it could. But why take a chance with a guy who was rocked last season?
Brewers vs Cardinals Over/Under analysis
The Over is another play I love in this game, for the reasons I noted above. Milwaukee has been dreadful against lefties and hasn’t hit very well this season in general, but a 91 wRC+ in the last two weeks is a step in the right direction and the likes of Christian Yelich and Brice Turang are starting to hit again.
Milwaukee should be able to capitalize on a pitcher with massive quality-of-contact issues here, but with the way things are going for the Brewers, we could certainly see a weak output from this offense. That’s why I ultimately side with the St. Louis team total, but if I were to bet on either side of this total it’d surely be the Over.
Brewers vs Cardinals game info
| Location: | Busch Stadium, St. Louis, MO |
| Date: | Wednesday, May 17, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 7:45 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports Wisconsin, Bally Sports Midwest |
Starting pitchers
Corbin Burnes (4-2, 3.35 ERA): The former Cy Young Award winner has calmed himself down since a slow start to the season, but is just a couple of outings removed from surrendering five runs, even if only two were earned. He’s yet to make a real mark in the strikeout department, though his seven against Kansas City five days ago were his second most.
Adam Wainwright (0-0, 7.20 ERA): A former first-round pick and current Top 100 prospect, Liberatore has drawn attention for his solid curveball. He pitched to a 5.97 ERA in his first taste of big-league action last year after recording a 5.17 ERA in Triple A, but this season’s starts down there have gone much better. In 46 frames, Liberatore owns a 3.13 ERA, and has thus earned himself another chance.
Latest injuries
Trend to know
The Over is 6-0 in the Cardinals’ last 6 games following a loss. Find more MLB betting trends for Brewers vs. Cardinals
