We're a couple of weeks into the 2024 MLB season and we've seen some hot and cold starts. Some teams have come as a bit of a surprise while others are chalk.
The projected win totals market is less consistently available throughout the season, so we'll look back at where the MLB odds stood before the season and update should the market re-emerge.
2024 National League win total odds
| Team | Total | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
 Arizona Diamondbacks |
84.5 | -110 | -110 |
 Atlanta Braves |
101.5 | +100 | -120 |
 Chicago Cubs |
84.5 | -115 | -105 |
 Cincinnati Reds |
81.5 | -115 | -105 |
 Colorado Rockies |
60.5 | +100 | -120 |
 Los Angeles Dodgers |
103.5 | +100 | -120 |
 Miami Marlins |
78.5 | +100 | -120 |
 Milwaukee Brewers |
77.5 | -105 | -115 |
 New York Mets |
81.5 | -110 | -110 |
 Philadelphia Phillies |
89.5 | -105 | -115 |
 Pittsburgh Pirates |
75.5 | -105 | -115 |
 San Diego Padres |
83.5 | -105 | -115 |
 San Francisco Giants |
83.5 | -110 | -110 |
 St. Louis Cardinals |
84.5 | -105 | -115 |
 Washington Nationals |
65.5 | -110 | -110 |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of March 27, 2024.
NL win total breakdown
The Los Angeles Dodgers are unsurprisingly projected to win the most games in MLB this season after signing Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, not to mention the acquisition of Tyler Glasnow from the Rays. Their number is sitting at 103.5. Now, getting to 100 wins is no small feat, but considering the roster the Dodgers have put together, anything below this number would feel like they underachieved.
A pair of National League East teams look like they will be the Dodgers’ biggest challengers this season. The Atlanta Braves are the only other team in MLB projected for triple-digit wins, and while GM Alex Anthopoulos hasn’t done anything flashy, there have been some good tweaks bringing in Jarred Kelenic and Chris Sale. Meanwhile, the Philadelphia Phillies, who have made consecutive trips to the NLCS are sitting at 90.5 wins.
The San Diego Padres were projected at 81.5 wins after sending star outfielder Juan Soto to the New York Yankees, but that number jumped back to 83.5 (-105 to the Over) after acquiring ace right-hander Dylan Cease from the Chicago White Sox.
At the other end of the spectrum is the Colorado Rockies, who own the dubious distinction of having the lowest win total in the National League at just 60.5. That would mean back-to-back 100-loss seasons for the Rockies. Luckily, that’s somehow not the lowest projected number in the majors.
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2024 American League win total odds
| Team | Total | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
 Baltimore Orioles |
90.5 | -110 | -110 |
 Boston Red Sox |
77.5 | -115 | -105 |
 Chicago White Sox |
61.5 | -110 | -110 |
 Cleveland Guardians |
79.5 | -120 | +100 |
 Detroit Tigers |
80.5 | -115 | -105 |
 Houston Astros |
93.5 | -105 | -115 |
 Kansas City Royals |
74.5 | -110 | -110 |
 Los Angeles Angels |
72.5 | -110 | -110 |
 Minnesota Twins |
86.5 | -115 | -105 |
 New York Yankees |
91.5 | +100 | -120 |
 Oakland A's |
57.5 | -105 | -115 |
 Seattle Mariners |
87.5 | -115 | -105 |
 Tampa Bay Rays |
84.5 | -110 | -110 |
 Texas Rangers |
88.5 | +100 | -120 |
 Toronto Blue Jays |
86.5 | -115 | -105 |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of March 27, 2024.
AL win total breakdown
The New York Yankees had their worst since 1992, winning just 82 games. But it’s the Yankees. So of course, they went out and traded for Juan Soto. They also bolstered the rotation a bit by signing Marcus Stroman. But after opening with the AL's highest win total of 93.5, it has dipped to 91.5 in the wake of Gerrit Cole's elbow injury. The reigning AL Cy Young winner is without a timetable.
As a result, the Houston Astros are now projected to win the most games on the Junior Circuit at 93.5. The Astros have advanced to the ALCS in seven consecutive seasons and after signing All-Star closer Josh Hader, they are hoping eight is great.
The Baltimore Orioles, at 90.5, represent the only other team pegged for 90+ victories. The reigning World Series champion Texas Rangers were listed at 90.5 but their number has dipped to 88.5 over the last month or so.
Look away Oakland A’s fans. For many reasons. Not the least of which is the fact the countdown to the departure to Las Vegas is on. And those A’s fans that are left don’t deserve the product that will be put on the field as the last hoorah. Oakland has an MLB-low win total of 57.5. Not that anyone will be watching.
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How to bet MLB season win totals
Season win totals are pretty straightforward: you're betting on how many wins a team will have that regular season.
Oddsmakers set a projected number of wins for each team — based on past success, returning personnel, and strength of schedule — and offer Over/Under betting options, allowing you to wager on if a team will exceed that win total (Over) or fall short of it (Under). This total does not include postseason games.
On top of the season win total itself, oddsmakers set an assigned cost to the Over and Under bets — also known as vig or juice — depending on the implied probability of the team winning more or less than that total.
For example, the Blue Jays are projected to win 91.5 games but oddsmakers felt like there was a better chance of them winning fewer than 92 games instead of winning 92+ games. Therefore, they set the Jays with a win total of 91.5 but increased the vig on the UNDER to -115 (bet $115 to win $100) and decreased the vig on the OVER to -105 (bet $105 to win $100).
- OVER 91.5 WINS (-105)
- UNDER 91.5 WINS (-115)
Season win totals are considered futures betting odds and sportsbooks will take action on season win totals from the time they post the odds until the start of the season. Futures bets are then graded at the end of the season when all results are final.
MLB Win Total FAQ
The Los Angeles Dodgers and Atlanta Braves have the highest projected win totals at 103.5 and 101.5, respectively.
The Oakland A's (56.5) and Colorado Rockies (60.5) have the lowest projected win totals.
Generally, sportsbooks open regular-season win totals after free agency has ended.
