The New York Mets will be playing their 12th game in as many days tonight as they host lefty Wade Miley and the Milwaukee Brewers as -145 home favorites after taking the second game of the four-match set on Tuesday by a final of 7-2.
The Mets will be sending Kodai Senga to the mound on four days of rest, which is something he’s done just once this year as he tries to adjust to a North American schedule. With possible rain and some concerns about the four-day gap between starts, should bettors be fading the New York starter even vs. a strikeout-heavy Milwaukee lineup?
Find out where my best bets lie in our MLB picks and predictions for Brewers vs. Mets on Wednesday, June 28.
Looking for today's game? Check out our Brewers vs. Mets picks for Thursday, June 29.
Brewers vs Mets odds
Brewers vs Mets predictions
Kodai Senga does not have a walk market as of this morning and that’s likely a good thing for the books as the right-hander has the worst BB/9 of all pitchers with at least 70 innings this season. His 60% strike rate is also a low mark and with some possible rain on the way, hitting the Under on his outs-recorded prop might be the best move.
First, the Japanese hurler is pitching on four days of rest for just the second time this season as the Mets have tried to give the righty more time between outings to mimic his NPB workload. He is also following an underwhelming performance vs. the Phillies where he recorded just 16 outs and threw a five-start-high 102 pitches. The last time he pitched on four days' rest, it didn't go well (2 2/3 IP, four hits, four runs, five walks, and three strikeouts).
The walks will continue to drive up the pitch count and even his strikeouts could elevate it. He’s walked at least three batters in 10 of his 14 starts and at least four batters in half of them. Milwaukee strikes out at a high rate but the Brewers also draw plenty of walks with a 9.3% walk rate, which is the sixth-best in baseball. This lineup can drive up pitch counts as it is a true three-outcome offense.
The rain could also give bettors another out here as the forecast is calling for some wet conditions. Any mid-inning delays would likely chase Senga — especially on short rest.
It’s a little juicy but I don’t expect Senga to get his 18 outs tonight. I'd also play the Under 16.5 outs at -105 or better.
My best bet: Kodai Senga Under 17.5 outs recorded (-150 at bet365)
Brewers vs Mets same-game parlay
Kodai Senga Under 17.5 outs (-150)
Brewers moneyline (+125)
Rowdy Tellez Over 0.5 RBI (+180)
Senga's control issues combined with his short rest could turn tonight's start into an inefficient one vs. a Milwaukee offense that sees a lot of pitches and draws a lot of walks. I like today's +125 ML price in this pitching matchup more than I did last night's +120 ML as Julio Teheran was pitching well above his peripherals and the Mets got to him. The home side is also dealing with some bullpen availability issues as New York is playing in its 12th-straight game in as many days.
THE BAT has the Rowdy Tellez RBI prop showing a lot of value as the middle-of-the-order hitter should have plating opportunities with all the walks Senga gives up. I wouldn't take this at anything below +500 as the multiplier is low due to the correlation between plays. The Under outs and Brewers ML is +200 alone.
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Brewers vs Mets moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Mets evened up the series last night with a 7-2 win but will also be playing for the 12th straight day, having gone 4-7 SU in this stretch while failing to win consecutive games. The bullpen has been working hard over the last 12 days and with Senga pitching on four days of rest for just the second time this year, I’m not loving the Mets today.
New York opened at -145, dipped to -135, but then went bet back to -145 by 10:30 am ET this morning. The Mets closed as a -140 home favorite last night in a neutral pitching matchup and that is where I expect it to close again today in a similar situation. Wade Miley can stifle this bad New York offense better than a lucky Teheran yesterday, which has me liking today's number better.
Miley might be lucky with a near-82% strand rate and a .233 BABIP but the walks are down, the home runs are under control, and batters are hitting just .139 vs. him over the last 28 days. I like the Brewers more today because of the pitching matchup at +125 than yesterday when they were +120.
Senga is also a concern. He’s pitched just one game on four days of rest (four runs over 2 2/3 innings) and is dealing with some control issues with a 40% ball rate and 44 free passes over 76 2/3 innings. Milwaukee is not a great offense but the walks might be a deciding factor in what could be a low-scoring game.
Rain is forecast, which muddies the handicap as we have seen two games get delayed mid-match over the last two days. The total opened at 8.5 and has seen a little action to the Under but these are both profitable Under teams on the season with offenses that rank in the bottom half of the league in OPS and average.
Considering Senga’s schedule, a taxed New York bullpen, and a better price than yesterday, I’m riding the Brewers today — or fading the Mets, who are currently 8.5 games out of a wild card spot and fourth in the NL East.
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Trend to know
The Mets are 1-5 in their last six games following a win. Find more MLB betting trends for Brewers vs. Mets
Brewers vs Mets game info
| Location: | Citi Field, Queens, NY |
| Date: | Wednesday, June 28, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | MLB Network |
Starting pitchers
Wade Miley (5-2, 2.91 ERA): Miley will be making his 11th start of the season and although he exited his last outing with cramping, that is not expected to be a factor today. He has a 31:11 K/BB ratio across 52.2 innings with six home runs allowed. He went six scoreless innings vs. this lineup in his first start of the season and the Brewers are 7-3 SU when the lefty gets the ball. THE BAT is projecting 92 pitches, 16.2 outs, 3.28 strikeouts, and 3.03 earned runs.
Kodai Senga (6-5, 3.52 ERA): Senga will be making his 15th start, but just his second on four days of rest. He’s averaging 95 pitches per start and 5 1/3 innings per turn with a 93:44 K/BB ratio and nine homers allowed over 76 2/3 innings. The Mets are 8-6 SU when he starts and THE BAT projects 100 pitches, 17 outs, 6.33 strikeouts, and 2.83 earned runs.
