The Milwaukee Brewers and New York Mets will wrap up their four-game series tonight at Citi Field. The Brewers have taken two of three games as decent plus-money dogs but have gotten even longer in the MLB odds today facing Max Scherzer.
With Scherzer's out total at 18.5 while coming off a season-high in pitches, is the Under the right side considering all the things that need to go right for the veteran to see the seventh inning?
Find out where my best bets lie in our MLB picks and predictions for Brewers vs. Mets on Thursday, June 29.
Brewers vs Mets odds
Brewers vs Mets predictions
Max Scherzer is coming off a season-high 107 pitches in his last outing, and with an out total of 18.5, the Under at -130 is showing good value.
Max has pitched decently of late — much better than at the beginning of the season — but coming out for the seventh might not be in the cards tonight vs. a Milwaukee Brewers offense that is poor at run production but does see plenty of pitches per at-bat. Only the Cubs see more, with Milwaukee sitting at 4.05 pitches per PA.
The difference between the 17th and 18th out are not weighed the same. A lot needs to go right to come out for the seventh, and a long bottom of the sixth could be possible, which would also favor the Under.
Adrian Houser is making his first start since June 9, and if the Brewers were to go to the pen in the sixth inning, it could drag out the inning and possibly force Buck Showalter to keep Mad Max on the bench. New York also has most of its bullpen arms available today, which hasn’t been the case in this series as the Mets have played a game in 12 straight days.
The conditions at Citi Field favor the hitters, as well, with low 80-degree temperatures and light winds blowing straight out. Scherzer has hit this Over in just three of his 13 starts, and the high workload in his last outing might help keep the New York starter in the dugout for the seventh inning.
My best bet: Scherzer Under 18.5 outs (-125)
Brewers vs Mets same-game parlay
Scherzer Under 18.5 outs
Brewers +1.5
Under 8.5
Scherzer could easily keep the score down and run a high pitch count as the Brewers walk and strikeout at high rates and see a ton of pitches. It's also an offense that doesn't stack runs.
The Milwaukee moneyline is pretty long here and Houser might be getting a little disrespected. His groundball ways work well vs. the Mets, who rely on the home-run ball. No need to get greedy with the moneyline though, as the +1.5 parlay pays +450, compared to the +650 SGP with the Milwaukee moneyline at +167.
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Brewers vs Mets moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Mets opened as -185 favorites and have moved as short as -200 in some places. It’s a significant move as they were -170 in the opener (Rea vs. Verlander), and today’s pitching matchup is similar to that game that the Brewers won 2-1.
Outside of a pitching matchup that favors the home side, there isn’t much else that has me liking the Mets. Neither offense is good, ranking in the Bottom 10 in average and OPS while managing just 19 combined runs through three games in the series (0-2-1 O/U). Both teams have been profitable to the Under on the season, and are a combined 67-84-9 O/U.
New York will be playing in its 13th game in as many days, and although the bullpen didn’t get a ton of usage last night (Grant Hartwig got saddled with the loss), this is still not a great stable of middle relievers (especially the right-handers) and the group ranks 29th in WAR, per FanGraphs.
Houser might be getting overlooked here as he hasn’t started since earlier this month, but THE BAT is projecting him to get 90-plus pitches and record nearly 16 outs. He gets outs on the ground and keeps the ball in the park, which works well against a New York offense that is heavily reliant on the longball for scoring. If I can get the Brewers at +170, I’d happily put a half unit on it.
The Over has yet to hit in this series and has seen two closing totals of 8.5 and one at 9. Tonight’s total opened at 8 but hit 8.5 shortly after.
I haven’t been excited about any of the Overs in this series, and tonight is no different. I do favor the Under at 8.5, but with my best bet being the Scherzer Under 18.5 outs, I’d be happy to stay away from the total and just sit with the Under outs and Milwaukee moneyline at +170.
The market did like runs at 8 but I don’t see this total getting much higher than -115 or -120 to the Over 8.5.
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Trend to know
The Brewers are 6-1 in the last seven meetings. Find more MLB betting trends for Brewers vs. Mets
Brewers vs Mets game info
| Location: | Citi Field, Queens, NY |
| Date: | Thursday, June 29, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | BSWI, SNY |
Starting pitchers
Adrian Houser (2-2, 4.02 ERA): The right-handed Houser will be making his eighth start of the season but first in three appearances as he was moved to the bullpen after a three-game stretch of 13 runs over 15-plus innings. His last game was on June 17, where he pitched one inning on 19 pitches but threw 77 pitches in his game prior to that. He carries a 25:13 K/BB ratio over 40.1 innings with three home runs, and is a groundball pitcher with a decent 3.96 FIP. Milwaukee is 4-3 SU in his starts this season, and THE BAT is projecting 92 pitches, 15.9 outs, 3.23 strikeouts, and 3.05 earned runs.
Max Scherzer (7-2, 3.95 ERA): Scherzer will be making his 14th start of the campaign and has not taken a loss in eight straight starts (3.19 ERA, 3.13 FIP). The 38-year-old starter has found his rhythm a little more in June, compiling a 30% CSW% (15% called strikes and 15% swinging strikes) compared to his 26% CSW% in April and May. Max is coming off a season-high 107 pitches, and the Mets are 9-4 SU when he starts. THE BAT projects 101 pitches, 18.7 outs, 7.63 strikeouts, and 2.52 earned runs.
