The Milwaukee Brewers face off against the San Diego Padres in MLB action on Saturday afternoon. This is the third contest in a four-game set at Petco Park with the Brewers taking the first two.
Oddsmakers expect the Padres to snap their three-game losing streak today with MLB betting lines opening the home side as -130 favorites. Here are my best free Brewers vs. Padres MLB picks and predictions for March 15.
Brewers vs Padres odds
Brewers vs Padres predictions
Brewers starter Freddy Peralta is having a bounce-back season after his production dipped last year due to a shoulder injury. Even with that injury clearly hindering his throwing arm and sending him to the IL twice, Peralta struck out 86 batters in 78 innings.
The righty broke out in 2021 when he was named an All-Star and fanned 195 batters in 144.1 innings. After a drop in his velocity last season, Peralta is throwing harder than ever.
The 26-year-old is averaging 94.5 mpg on his fastball and 89.7 mph on his changeup, which is nearly 4 mph higher than last year. That's allowed him to rack up seven strikeouts in each of his first two starts this year.
The Padres have had a tough time making contact this season and are 15th in the majors in strikeout rate (23.2%), with that number ticking up to 26.5% against right-handers. Back Peralta to go Over his strikeouts total of 5.5.
My best bet: Peralta Over 5.5 strikeouts (-120)
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Brewers vs Padres moneyline analysis
The Brewers hammered the Padres 11-2 yesterday to improve to 10-4 on the year. They had six batters pick up multiple hits with Rowdy Tellez jacking a pair of homers and Luke Voit going 3-5 at the plate. They also beat the Padres on Thursday and have now won four games in a row at Petco Park.
The Brewers are fourth in the majors in batting average (.279) and OPS (.828) and have gotten production from every spot in their lineup.
The Padres are just 26th in batting average (.217) and OPS (.703), and need Fernando Tatis Jr. to give their offense a boost when he returns from suspension next week. The Padres have dropped four of their last five to drop one game below .500.
Thankfully, starter Seth Lugo should give the Padres a decent chance of winning if he's able to keep up his current form. The former reliever has allowed just a pair of runs across 13 innings in his first two starts of the year.
The Friars look worse off in their bullpen where their relievers rank 16th in the majors in ERA (4.13) and 23rd in WHIP (1.43).
Not only does Peralta look like he has returned to his 2021 form but the Brewers bullpen has been lights out. Their relievers have pitched to the lowest ERA in the majors (1.74) while ranking fifth in WHIP (1.14).
Brewers vs Padres Over/Under analysis
With how well both starters have been throwing this season, there's plenty of reason to like the Under. Peralta has a sizzling 0.75 ERA and pitched to a 2.81 ERA in 27 starts in 2021. Meanwhile, Lugo has pitched to a 1.38 ERA with an OBA of .196.
Combine that with San Diego's struggles at the plate and the pitcher-friendly confines of Petco Park and the Under 8 makes sense.
That said, there are a few caveats to consider before making that play. Lugo's ERA might be below 2.00 but his expected ERA sits at 3.63 which is more in line with his 3.56 ERA over the last two years.
The Brewers have been raking lately, while Padres superstar Juan Soto is due for a breakout performance after performing far below expectations so far this year.
Brewers vs Padres game info
| Location: | Petco Park, San Diego, CA |
| Date: | Saturday, April 15, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 4:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FS1 |
Brewers vs Padres betting preview
Starting pitchers
Freddy Peralta (2-0, 0.75 ERA): Peralta went 10-5 with a 2.81 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, and 12.2 K/9 in 2021. After being limited to just 78 innings last year he looks like he's recaptured that form and has given up just six hits and one run in 12 innings this year.
Peralta is just 6 feet tall but his extension ranks in the top 10th percentile of all pitchers as does his fastball spin rate. He's also in the top 20th percentile in opponent xBA (.191) and average exit velocity.
Seth Lugo (2-0, 1.38 ERA): The 33-year-old is proving that he can be a full-time starter after primarily working out of the bullpen for the last five years. He allowed one run in each of his first two starts this season and threw 109 pitches against the Braves last Sunday after 93 pitches against the Rockies the previous week.
Lugo owns one of the filthiest curveballs around. His curve averaged 3,253 revolutions per minute according to Statcast last year (third-highest in the majors) and resulted in a 30.8% whiff rate
Latest injuries
Trend to know
The Under is 4-1 in San Diego's previous five games while going 6-2 in Milwaukee's last eight games. Find more MLB betting trends for Brewers vs. Padres
