The Brewers are desperately clinging to a two-game lead in the NL Central, and after a sweep at the hands of the Dodgers will be hungry for a victory on Friday night in Texas. The only issue is that the Rangers have been hitting the ball incredibly well over the last few weeks and enter with four wins in their last six games. The MLB odds favor the Rangers but only slightly.
Let’s break down Brewers vs. Rangers in our MLB picks and predictions.
Brewers vs Rangers odds
Brewers vs Rangers predictions
The Los Angeles Dodgers may have figured out how to get the best out of Andrew Heaney, after countless teams had tried and failed, but it once again appears the left-hander has forgotten how to get runners out.
The Texas Rangers’ starter on Friday has watched his strikeout rate come back down to 24.4% this season with a .245 xBA – a far cry from his .203 xBA a season ago. He’s actually induced more ground balls in 2023 with a lower hard-hit rate, but his slider is not working like it used to. On top of that, he’s walked many more hitters this season.
Luckily for Heaney, the Milwaukee Brewers are one of the worst offensive teams in baseball. They are hitting just .232 this season and sit 26th in WRC+ to lefties. On top of that, they rank 24th in run value against sliders.
Brandon Woodruff has been really good for the Brewers in four starts since his activation from the injured list, but the 30-year-old surely can’t maintain an ERA under two runs and will eventually regress a bit. While his strikeout numbers remain strong, he’s pitched to a poor 44.4% hard-hit rate in 22 2/3 innings and has still rolled up ground balls at worse than a 40% rate.
The Rangers are the better offense here, checking in with a 122 wRC+ over the last two weeks, and despite having a disadvantage in the pitching matchup on paper I think Heaney should actually have success against a team which can’t hit sliders.
My best bet: Rangers ML (-120 at DraftKings)
Brewers vs Rangers same-game parlay
Rangers moneyline
Heaney 6+ strikeouts
Woodruff 7+ strikeouts
It’s hard for me to take any offensive props in this game given the state of Milwaukee’s lineup and the ability of Woodruff to generate punchouts. While I do think the Rangers will score some runs here, it’s never a safe wager completely fading the Brewers right-hander.
Texas may be an excellent offensive bunch, but it still is striking out at roughly a 24% clip over the last two weeks. Woodruff sat down 30% of the batters he faced in 2022 and has sat down 30% here in 2023, making him a good bet to hit his strikeout prop. Woodruff’s hit seven strikeouts in two of four starts and should be capable of doing so here once again.
The Brewers have struck out in a very poor 25.6% of plate appearances against lefties and for the last few years, strikeouts have been the only redeeming quality for Heaney. He’s had a hard time racking up K’s over the last couple of months, but he should get right in this spot.
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Brewers vs Rangers moneyline and Over/Under analysis
While 70% of the bets over at DraftKings have come in on the Over 8 runs, that bet has accounted for just 61% of the handle. That would indicate that there’s some big money that’s come in on the Under, and I can’t really blame those bettors.
The Brewers have been Under-cashing machines, playing to a 1-0 final in Los Angeles on Thursday night to mark their 24th Under in their last 42 road games. This team has an excellent defense and many great starting pitchers, but it simply can’t hit to save its life.
I’d definitely lean towards taking the Under here, but I find the Rangers to be a much safer side. There’s a high likelihood that either Heaney blows up here, or the Rangers continue to stay red-hot at the dish – both of which could have you regretting betting on a low-scoring affair.
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Trend to know
The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 68 of their last 113 games (+25.55 Units / 15% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Brewers vs. Rangers
Brewers vs Rangers game info
| Location: | Globe Life Field, Arlington, TX |
| Date: | Friday, August 18, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 8:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports Wisconsin, Bally Sports Southwest |
Starting pitchers
Brandon Woodruff (2-1, 1.99 ERA): Woodruff will be making his fifth start of the season here. He’s allowed no more than two runs in any of his four outings, striking out 26 batters in 22 2/3 innings pitched since his activation from the injured list.
Andrew Heaney (9-6, 4.17 ERA): The left-hander has looked like a new man in August, posting a 0.69 ERA in three starts. With that said, his last outing lasted just 1 1/3 innings and saw him allow five baserunners but escape with just one earned run.
