Friday night features a team in a pennant race and another club that isn’t when the Milwaukee Brewers meet the New Yankees for Game 1 of their three-game interleague series. The MLB odds are exceptional, and we’ve found the very best ones for this matchup.
The Brewers have a two-game lead over the Chicago Cubs, and righty Colin Rea (5-5, 5.07) is their probable starting pitcher. The Yankees are last in the AL East and scheduled veteran righty Luis Severino (4-8, 6.75) to take the hill for the Bronx Bombers.
Can the Brewers hold off the surging Cubs with a victory tonight? Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for Brewers vs. Yankees on Friday, September 8.
Brewers vs Yankees odds
Brewers vs Yankees predictions
This is the season's most crucial series thus far for the Brewers, who have a two-game lead over the Chicago Cubs in the NL Central Division standings, and they need to win games to hold them off, which will begin tonight.
Like most MLB pitchers, Rea has had moments where he’s been brilliant and other times mediocre, but his best results, and the best chance Milwaukee has to win behind him, have been when Rea pitches on the road.
There, Rea is 3-2 with a 4.53 ERA over 49 1/3 innings on the bump. He walks fewer hitters with a lower home run rate but does strike out fewer hitters per nine. Rea has surrendered 14 earned runs over his past 28 frames during his past five away starts from Miller Park–five of those earned runs were against the Atlanta Braves, but the Braves aren’t in the home clubhouse tonight, and Rea should be fine.
Instead is a team with a 27.7% strikeout rate over the past 30 days against right-handed pitching. Rea may see an uptick in the strikeouts as no one, and I mean no one, has a higher strikeout vs. righties over the past 30 days than the New York Yankees do.
That’s not to say the Yankees don’t have the sticks because they do. Aaron Judge has missed chunks of the season but still has 31 jacks in 300 at-bats. Gleyber Torres, Anthony Volpe, and DJ LeMahieu have been hot the last month, but the Yankees don’t score runs consistently and boast a 97 wRC+ over their past 30 days against righties.
Once upon a time, Severino was nearly a lock at Yankee Stadium, just not this season. The veteran righty has struggled with his command and has allowed 15 earned runs over his last 25 innings on the hill in the friendly confines. The strikeouts at home are down, and he’s allowing nearly two home runs per nine frames.
Mark Canha and William Contreras have been raking for Milwaukee over the last month, and rookie shortstop Andruw Monasterio has also provided timely hits for the Brew Crew.
The Brewers aren’t the best-hitting team in baseball, but they have scored 122 runs over their last 24 games with a 16th-best 482 runs this season against right-handed pitching. The Brew Crew were stymied in Pittsburgh, but I expect Milwaukee to touch up Severino and sneak away with a much-needed victory tonight.
Finally, this is an important series for Milwaukee. The Cubbies are surging, and the Brewers need to come through. Milwaukee has won the seventh-most money for bettors as the away team this season with a winning away record facing a Yankees team that hasn’t lived up to expectations and has struggled to score runs against righties. The Brewers bullpen is the more rested of the two, and I like the Brewers to win this game.
My best bet: Brewers moneyline (+112 at BetRivers)
Brewers vs Yankees same-game parlay
Milwaukee Brewers (+100)
LeMahieu hit (-290)
Yankees Under 9.5 runs (-140)
We already discussed why I chose the Brewers moneyline play as my best bet.
LeMahieu to get a hit is based on how hot he’s been this past month, plus he’s 3-6 lifetime against Rea. He’ll approach the plate with extra confidence and stroke a single tonight.
Finally, I like the Under 9.5, but it is juicy. Neither of these teams has consistently scored runs this season, and I expect this trend to continue tonight. The Yankees have the best bullpen in baseball, while the Brewers are 10th but the more rested of the two.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Brewers vs Yankees moneyline and Over/Under analysis
I hoped for 9.5 runs to play Under as my best bet but could only find that number with our SGP selection. -145 for the Under sitting on the key number nine is too much juice to pay.
We don’t have the best starting pitching matchup tonight. Neither starting pitcher has been consistent this season, but neither have the respective offenses. Milwaukee is 28-40-3 to the Under this season as the away team, while the Bombers are 33-37-2 to the Under as the home team.
Neither offense has offered much run support for tonight’s starting pitchers. The Brew Crew score an average of 4.75 runs per Rea start, while the Yankees plate just 3.82 support runs when Severino takes the hill.
The Brewers' bullpen allows the eighth-most earned runs, while the Yankees have surrendered the second-fewest runs in baseball this season.
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Trend to know
Brewers are 8-0 in their last eight interleague games vs. a right-handed starter and 7-0 in their previous seven interleague road games. Find more MLB betting trends for Brewers vs. Yankees
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Brewers vs Yankees game info
| Location: | Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY |
| Date: | Friday, September 8, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports Wisconsin, YES |
Starting pitchers
Colin Rea (5-5, 5.07 ERA): Rea’s pitched better on the road than at home. The Milwaukee righty strikes out nearly seven and 2.54 walks per nine frames with an away xFIP slightly above his 4.53 ERA. He’s serving up 1.27 home runs per nine frames and is 3-2 this season away from Miller Park.
Luis Severino (4-8, 6.75 ERA): Severino hasn’t pitched particularly well anywhere, but he’s posted a 3-2 record this season at Yankee Stadium. The veteran right-hander is striking out 7.12 with three walks and 2.12 home runs allowed per nine innings. Severino’s 5.08 xFIP is slightly higher than his home ERA, which could mean regression is in store on Friday.
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