Cardinals vs Cubs Picks and Predictions: Call the Carpenter

Both starters in Saturday's game between the St. Louis Cardinals and Chicago Cubs can end being the difference, but righty Zach Davies could get exploited by St. Louis. Check out our picks and predictions for who we like in this NL Central clash.

Zachary Cohen - Contributor at Covers.com
Jul 10, 2021 • 10:25 ET • 4 min read
Matt Carpenter St. Louis Cardinals MLB
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

On Saturday, the Chicago Cubs host the St. Louis Cardinals at Wrigley Field. The Cubs have been extremely lousy as of late, but they aren’t going to lay down in a series against the Cardinals, as evidenced by last night’s 10-5 blowout. 

Will Chicago earn a victory and secure the series win tonight? Find out in our free MLB betting picks and predictions for Cardinals vs. Cubs on July 10.

Cardinals vs Cubs game info

Location: Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL
Date: Saturday, July 10, 2021
Time: 7:15 p.m. ET
TV: MLBN 

Cardinals vs Cubs odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

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MLB sharp money and line movement report

By Patrick Everson

Chicago landed on BetMGM Nevada's odds board as modest -120 chalk Friday night, went to -115 within an hour and hasn't budged since, remaining -115 as of 4:45 p.m. ET today. "Ticket count is about even and so is the money," BetMGM Nevada's Randy Madayag said. The total moved from 7.5 (Under -120) to 8 (Over -115), with ticket count and money largely in favor of the Over, but Madayag said that's from a limited pot, with the total drawing very light action so far.

Check out the full line movement for this game

Cardinals vs Cubs betting preview

Starting pitchers

Kwang-Hyun Kim (3-5, 3.39 ERA): Kim was unbelievable in his last trip to the hill, as he gave up just three hits in seven shutout innings against the San Francisco Giants. The lefty doesn’t strike out many hitters, but he’s very effective at pitching to contact and now faces a Cubs team that has been miserable this season. This is a good opportunity for him to improve on his 1-4 road record. 

Zach Davies (5-5, 4.28 ERA): Davies has been great against the Cardinals this season, as he is 1-0 with no earned runs over 11 2-3 innings in his two starts against them. The righty doesn’t work very deep into games, but he has shown that he is more than capable of going out and giving Chicago five or six innings of good work. Also, his ERA in April was 9.47 so his stats aren’t as bad as his numbers suggest. 

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Cardinals: No injuries to report. 
Cubs: 3B Kris Bryant (Questionable), SS Javier Baez (Questionable), 2B David Bote (Out), 3B Matt Duffy (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Cardinals are 5-2 in their last seven games against right-handed starters. Find more MLB betting trends for Cardinals vs. Cubs.

Moneyline pick

Davies has had St. Louis’ number through two starts this year, but that seems bound to change here. Davies has struggled when starting at night this season, as he is 3-4 with a 5.18 ERA in the evening. Also, while Davies has had two good starts against the Cardinals this season, this St. Louis lineup is 39 for 122 with 12 doubles, five homers and 10 RBIs against him. 

Matt Carpenter has been especially productive against the righty, as he is 12 for 26 with four doubles, three homers and four RBIs against him. Carpenter has also drawn six walks against Davies. With that, don’t be surprised if the Cardinals breakthrough offensively here, and Carpenter should be a huge catalyst. 

Kim doesn’t have a whole lot of experience pitching against this Cubs team, as his only appearance against them was a 3 2-3 inning outing in which he gave up just one earned run in August of last season. However, that lack of experience facing him isn’t going to make things any easier on Chicago. Kim is a lefty that doesn’t exactly have overpowering stuff, so he’s already a bit of a different look. And, outside of last night’s offensive explosion, the Cubs haven’t been hitting well lately. 

PREDICTION: Cardinals ML (+100) 

Over/Under pick

Chicago comes into this game after five straight Overs, and three of those totals came with the Cubs’ opponents doing most of the work. Look for something like that to happen again in this one, as the Cardinals should be able to do some damage against Davies in this game. 

That’s not to say that the Cubs won’t plate any runs against Kim, but this is an extremely low total tonight. The Cardinals would only need to score five or so runs to really give Over bettors a good chance, and this team should be able to do something like that in this one. 

PREDICTION: Over 7.0 (-102)

Cardinals vs Cubs betting card

  • Cardinals ML (+100) 
  • Over 7.0 (-102)

Picks made on 7/10/2021 at 9:40 a.m. ET

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