With the return of two players off the paternity list, the Dodgers looked strong on Friday night in a 7-3 beatdown of the Cardinals at home. Now they’ll send their ace to the hill in Clayton Kershaw to try and lock up a series victory in the second of three on Saturday.
Let’s break down Cardinals vs. Dodgers in our MLB picks and predictions for Saturday, April 29.
Cardinals vs Dodgers odds
Cardinals vs Dodgers predictions
For all the hitting the Cardinals have done over the last few weeks, their bats were nowhere to be found on Friday. They’re still seventh in wRC+ over the last week, but it’s beginning to look like their offense may be closer to where it was on Friday considering their .312 BABIP and meek .164 ISO over the same stretch.
I think Clayton Kershaw is in position to shove tonight for the Dodgers. He’s certainly not pitching at the high level he was last season, but it’s also worth noting he’s historically been a slow starter. Kershaw has now allowed just three earned runs over his last three outings, taking him across 19 innings, and he’s struck out 19 in those frames with just three walks.
St. Louis ranks second in wRC+ to left-handed pitching, which may make them an attractive underdog bet here, but I’m of the opinion that Jordan Montgomery isn’t all that good. His strikeouts have come down for a second straight season, while his hard-hit rate has risen above 50%, and his barrel rate has taken off to nearly 10%.
The Dodgers have had their issues against lefties in the past and rank 26th in wRC+ in that split this year. But they also have a .210 ISO in the last week, and should be able to exploit a guy who’s giving up way too many rockets.
My best bet: Dodgers moneyline (-145 at Caesars)
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Cardinals vs Dodgers moneyline analysis
Despite what I touched on above, the public is all over the Dodgers. Montgomery is a name bettors and baseball fans generally know and respect, and these teams are polar opposites when it comes to hitting lefties. Yet it’s the Dodgers commanding 88% of the moneyline bets at DraftKings and 81% of the handle.
That certainly makes me a little nervous here, but I feel strongly about the discrepancy in the pitching matchup. Kershaw’s expected ERA sits at 3.62, but it’s more a product of the barrels he surrendered earlier in the year than anything.
Kershaw has looked much more like himself in his last few starts, and is coming off one of his best seasons in the last five or so years. I’m willing to buy into what I’ve seen.
Cardinals vs Dodgers Over/Under analysis
I would definitely lean towards taking the Under here, despite all the good work that these offenses have done all year. The fact remains that the Dodgers are not a powerhouse against lefties, so even if they can leave the yard a couple of times and ultimately position themselves to win this game, I doubt that they’ll be able to score enough to put the Under in jeopardy.
While Montgomery is the worse of the two pitchers, both are relatively trustworthy. I’m especially infatuated with Kershaw against a team whose luck is turning. I think he could shut out St. Louis over seven frames.
It’s worth noting that while 38% of all tickets on the total have come in on the Under, 34% of the money is there. That would indicate there’s some big money on the Over, so perhaps it’s best to stay away here.
Cardinals vs Dodgers game info
| Location: | Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date: | Saturday, April 29, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 9:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FS1 |
Cardinals vs Dodgers betting preview
Starting pitchers
Jordan Montgomery (2-3, 3.81 ERA): Two turns ago, Montgomery allowed seven runs on 10 hits over four frames against the Diamondbacks. He rebounded in impressive fashion against the Giants last go-around, spinning six frames of shutout ball.
Clayton Kershaw (4-1, 2.32 ERA): The lefty has seen a slight dip in his strikeout production in his age 35 season, but sitting down 26.4% of the batters you face will still put you well into above-average territory. Kershaw’s had some issues with giving up barrels this year, but remains elite in the walk department and has calmed down over the last few starts.
Latest injuries
Trend to know
The Cardinals are 1-5 in the last 6 meetings in Los Angeles. Find more MLB betting trends for Cardinals vs. Dodgers
