Both pitchers have their flaws, but there’s one clear choice on Friday.
The Cardinals have been tearing the cover off the ball this season, but their pitching has let them down of late.
One of those starters will take the hill on Friday in the form of Steven Matz, but might he have some more success against a Mariners side that has lost three straight?
Let’s break down Cardinals vs. Mariners in our MLB picks and predictions below.
Cardinals vs Mariners odds
Cardinals vs Mariners predictions
Folks in Seattle are very excited about George Kirby’s future, but I’ve yet to see anything to convince me he’s destined to be more than a back-end arm.
The righty has never walked many batters, which is one of his strong suits, but his strikeout rate is down to 17.1% this season and he’s not exactly getting outs via contact.
Kirby’s ground ball rate is all the way down at 33.9% and his xwOBA on contact stands at .389, which is well higher than the league average. That has put his xERA all the way at 4.55 with a .310 expected batting average.
Simply put, there are plenty of reasons to love a very strong St. Louis Cardinals offense on Friday against Kirby. They’re third in wRC+ to this point and sporting a low 20.6% strikeout rate with a strong .167 Isolated Power.
St. Louis is doing it all while Seattle has graded out as a below-average offense and has been one of the worst in baseball vs. lefties.
We will get to Steven Matz in just a moment, but for now, let’s just settle on the fact that the Cardinals have the better offense and are in a great spot against the alleged better pitcher.
My best bet: Cardinals moneyline (+110 at Pinnacle)
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Cardinals vs Mariners moneyline analysis
Matz has been a bit lost this season, but he should be able to figure things out against a weak Seattle Mariners offense.
Seattle is 18th in hard-hit balls per swing and barrel rate and against lefties has a disastrous 76 wRC+ with a 7.6% walk rate and 25.3% strikeout rate. If you’re familiar with those metrics, you would know that all three are very poor numbers.
What has been Matz’s biggest issue to this point? Well, that’s a loaded question. He has a 49% hard-hit rate to this point with a 10.5% walk rate, which is a very lethal combination. On top of this, his strikeouts are down year-over-year.
The good news is that the Mariners don’t walk a lot vs. lefties (or righties, for that matter) and have been very poor when it comes to strikeouts and power. With that, I love Matz a lot more than Kirby — who has to face an excellent offense.
Cardinals vs Mariners Over/Under analysis
Ultimately, you’re out of your mind if you’re not siding with the Over here. This line respects Kirby a bit too much, and on the other side of things, while I'm a bigger fan of Matz’s here, it seems out of the question he makes it through this start unscathed.
After all, Matz has allowed 12 runs in 16 2/3 innings and really only looked good against the Pirates, who might have the worst offense in baseball. I don’t trust Seattle to keep up in a slugfest, but I do think this game turns into one.
Seattle’s power numbers aren’t great but they’re good enough to expect a homer or two.
Cardinals vs Mariners game info
| Location: | T-Mobile Park, Seattle, WA |
| Date: | Friday, April 21, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 10:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | MLB Network |
Cardinals vs Mariners betting preview
Starting pitchers
Steven Matz (0-2, 6.48 ERA): The left-hander has made three starts, and his latest was the best of the lot. He worked 5 2/3 innings of two-run ball and allowed just three hits, though that did come with five walks. Matz did strike out six and has 17 Ks in 16 2/3 frames.
George Kirby (1-1, 3.78 ERA): The second-year prospect has calmed himself after yielding four runs on nine hits and walk over 4 1/3 in his first outing of the year against the Angels, giving up just three across his last two starts. He’s still lacking in the strikeout department with 12 in 16 2/3 innings.
Latest injuries
Trend to know
The Over is 4-0-1 in the Cardinals’ last five games. Find more MLB betting trends for Cardinals vs. Mariners
