Cardinals vs Red Sox Predictions, Picks, Odds: Can Cardinals Complete Sweep?

Sunday Night Baseball heads to Fenway for an interleague matchup between the St. Louis Cardinals and Boston Red Sox. 

The Cardinals have broken out of a funk to post a pretty 5-1 record across their last six games. Is that form for real, or is it just a flash in the pan? 

They’ll look to complete the sweep against the BoSox, who have struggled to the tune of a 1-4 record across their last five. 

Will St. Louis stay hot and complete the sweep, or will Boston show signs of life? Read our MLB betting picks below to find out. 

Cardinals vs Red Sox odds

Cardinals vs Red Sox predictions

Corey Kluber gets the nod for the Boston Red Sox, and there’s not much to like about his numbers.

Despite posting a career-low .265 BABIP, he’s been knocked around the yard to the tune of a 6.29 ERA that doesn’t appear to be a fluke. Look for a warning signal and it’s there with Kluber — strikeouts are down, and both walks and hard contact are up. 

He’s allowed at least three earned runs in five of his seven starts this season in what’s been a display of consistently poor performance. He just doesn’t have it like he used to — FanGraph’s Stuff+ metric, which measures a pitcher’s “stuff”, grades him out as 109 out of 118 pitchers who have thrown at least 30 innings. 

Miles Mikolas gets the call for the St. Louis Cardinals and he too has struggled in 2023. The difference is that there are encouraging signs — after a difficult stretch to start the year, he’s allowed a total of just nine earned runs across his last four starts. Most of the damage against him can be assigned to an absurdly high .379 BABIP, the highest of his career by a wide margin. 

On the season, Boston ranks fourth in wRC+ (113) and third in wOBA (.344) while St. Louis checks in at 11th in wRC+ (108) and 12th in wOBA (.327). When looking at current form, however, those numbers are a bit different. Over the last 10 days, St. Louis ranks sixth in wRC+ (117) and fifth in wOBA (.341) while Boston checks in at 11th in wRC+ (102) and 10th in wOBA (.327). 

Not only will the Cardinals have the starting pitcher in better form, but they will also feature a hotter lineup. 

St. Louis has been rolling after a rough stretch to start the year, winning five of its last six games. Boston has been cold, winning just one of its last five games. Interleague play has been especially harsh on the Sox, who have dropped seven in a row against the NL. 

I like the Cardinals to pick up another win on Sunday and will be targeting them on the moneyline with my best bet. 

My best bet: Cardinals moneyline (-114 at Pinnacle)

Cardinals vs Red Sox moneyline analysis

The line opened at -110 in favor of the Cardinals but has since moved further in that direction. The line has crept up to -120 at most spots currently while -115 is the best price available. I’d play the number to -130. 

The Red Sox have been in a bit of a funk, losing the last game of the series against the Phillies before splitting a two-game set with Atlanta and then dropping the first two games against the Cardinals. 

I’m not sure I’d give Boston much of a home-field advantage considering Cluber has posted a grotesque 7.71 ERA at Fenway this season. Meanwhile, Mikolas has actually been better on the road with a 4.29 ERA in away games compared to a 6.53 ERA in home games. 

There isn’t a large bullpen advantage for either side as both teams have an identical 3.79 ERA in relief. 

When the Red Sox lose a series, they have tended to really lose that series, going 0-5 in their last five games after losing the first two games of the series. 

Cardinals vs Red Sox Over/Under analysis

The total opened at 10.5 but has since moved down to 10. 

Boston has been dead set on the Over this season with a 26-13-1 O/U record. That includes five straight Overs. 

The Cardinals have been on an Over run themselves, going 8-2 O/U in their last 10 games. 

Both of these starting pitchers have been ones to target for Over bettors. The Cardinals are 5-3 O/U in Mikolas’ starts while the Red Sox are 6-1 O/U in Klubers’ starts. For the folks counting at home, that’s a combined 11-4 O/U record.

Neither starting pitcher will dazzle opponents with their array of pitches. As mentioned above, Kluber grades out as one of the lowest in MLB in FanGraph’s Stuff+ metric, while Mikolas isn’t much better. He checks out at 92 out of 118 pitchers who have tossed at least 30 innings. 

While the trends and starting pitching matchup do seem to call for runs, one factor to monitor is the weather. The forecast calls for 63 degrees at the time of first pitch with winds of 10.3 mph blowing in toward first base. 

Cardinals vs Red Sox game info

Starting pitchers

Miles Mikolas (1-1, 5.40 ERA): After posting a solid 3.29 ERA a year ago, Mikolas has regressed so far this season with a 5.99 xERA and 4.58 FIP. Rarely one to generate strikeouts, Mikolas has improved his strikeout rate to a career-high 21%. He’s been hit extremely hard compared to past seasons — his barrel rate of 10.1% is by far the highest of his career. He’s picked it up after a rough start, though, allowing just four earned runs over his last three starts. 

Corey Kluber (2-4, 6.29 ERA): The veteran has been struggling during his first season in Boston, posting a 5.72 xERA and 6.38 FIP. His strikeout rate (18.2%) is depressed for the second straight year and is well removed from his 26% career mark, while his 7.8% walk rate is well above his career number of 5.5%. He’s allowed three earned runs in each of his last two starts. 

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The Cardinals are 5-1 straight up in their last six games. Find more MLB betting trends for Cardinals vs. Red Sox

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