After three consecutive losing seasons, the Arizona Diamondbacks have reached a breaking point. They sit atop the NL West after 77 games, and their World Series odds are at a point where it’s okay to foster belief in the mysterious magic occurring in the desert.
Part of the reason for the Diamondbacks' success is a highly-touted youngster named Corbin Carroll. He was the team’s first-round pick in the 2019 MLB Draft and debuted three years later for the ball club, playing in 32 games and finishing with a slash line of .260/.330/.500.
That was enough to secure him a massive eight-year, $111 million contract extension.
Carroll is the real deal, and with the NL ROY odds suggesting he’s got that award wrapped up, we take a look at his chances of joining the elusive 40-40 club.
Odds for Corbin Carroll to join 40-40 club
| Carroll Yes to 40-40 | Carroll No to 40-40 |
|---|---|
| +900 | -2500 |
Odds courtesy of FanDuel as of June 23, 2023.
40-40 is an exclusive club
The 40-40 club is one of the most exclusive clubs in baseball. The numbers represent 40 home runs and 40 steals, and in the history of Major League Baseball, only four guys have burst through the door. Some of the very best players in today’s game and over the last 10 seasons have tried and have failed.
Here is a complete rundown of players who are in the club:
| Year | Player | Home runs | Stolen bases |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2006 | Alfonso Soriano | 46 | 41 |
| 1998 | Alex Rodriguez | 42 | 46 |
| 1996 | Barry Bonds | 42 | 40 |
| 1988 | Jose Canseco | 42 | 40 |
Those are the only four players in MLB history to have accomplished this feat. Some players, such as Mike Trout, have achieved both 40 home runs and 40 stolen bases in different years.
Others have come close, with Matt Kemp's 2011 season standing out as the most memorable in recent times. Kemp stole exactly 40 bases and hit 39 homers that year. He went deep once in his final game of the season, but was unable to get that one extra dinger.
Apart from the four players in the 40-40 club, there have been only 10 instances where a player recorded at least 40 in one category and 35 or more in the other during a single campaign. Those players include Willie Mays, Bobby Bonds (twice), Eric Davis, Howard Johnson, Barry Bonds, Vladimir Guerrero, Soriano, Carlos Beltran, Kemp, and Ronald Acuna Jr.
Best MLB bonuses
Looking to bet on some baseball action? Here are two of the best bonuses* available:
A) New users at FanDuel can get a no-sweat first bet up to $1,000! Sign Up Now
B) Get a profit boost up to 100% on one MLB SGP at DraftKings! Opt-in Now
*Eligible USA locations only. Also, check out our full list of best sportsbook promotions for 2023.
21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
Carroll's 2023 season at a glance
Heading into Saturday’s action, which will be game 78 for Arizona, Carroll is sitting with 23 stolen bases and 16 home runs. While that may seem like a far cry from the elusive 40-40, Carroll has shown plenty of speed and pop in his bat to go on a massive run.
He owns an OBP of .397 and a .576 SLG. He’s done the bulk of his production through the month of June with seven home runs, but his stolen base numbers have fallen off since stealing 10 bases in March/April, with just six swiped bags so far through June 24.
If we break down the splits even more and just focus on stolen bases, 23 stolen bases is Top 4 across the majors, and is the second-best mark in the National League behind the other potential 40-40 hopeful, Acuna Jr.
Given the fact that the bases are bigger, the pitchers can only throw over to check on the runner twice per at-bat, and the fact that Carroll notched the sixth-fastest sprint speed this season (30.1 ft/sec), we believe 40 stolen bases is doable if he stays healthy.
Unlike home runs, stolen bases are uniform across all ballparks, so no additional factors come into play aside from Carroll's ability to get on base and execute his baserunning skills.
Power up
Now, we must talk about the tricky part — hitting 40 home runs.
Hitting 40 dingers in any given season is a feat in and of itself, and only 55 players since 2010 have hit the 40-home run mark. The last Diamondback to do so was Mark Reynolds in 2009, with 44 home runs. Hell, not even the Diamondbacks’ best player of the last decade, Paul Goldschmidt, hit 40 home runs in the desert.
At 16 home runs through 77 games, Carroll needs to take the production to the next level if he wants a chance late in the season. FanGraphs projections have Carroll hitting only 15 the rest of the season barring injury, so to say he has work to do would be an understatement. Luckily, he has 18 games left against teams that play in ballparks that rank in the Top 8 in home run hitting (Reds, Dodgers, Yankees, White Sox, Angels, and Rockies).
Special season
It’s been a long 17 years since Alfonso Soriano broke into the exclusive 40-40 club, but with the way the season is playing out and the way Carroll is making me a believer in his ability each game, the only way to play this betting market is to take the Yes at +900 at FanDuel.
I expect the stolen bases to come in bunches, and with 23 before July, we can expect him to be at 35 before mid-August. The home run output will have to see a slight uptick, but if he can get to 21 before the Midsummer Classic on July 11, then he has a real chance of cashing this ticket.
Keep in mind, the No is slated at -2500, so we do not recommend laying that much juice for a minimal return.
My best bet: Corbin Carroll — Yes to join 40-40 club (+900 at FanDuel)
