The Los Angeles Angels currently sit one game above .500 and open a three-game set vs. the Chicago Cubs, with prospect Hayden Wesneski taking the mound for the Cubbies. The young RHP is a short road dog but will be making his second start since an early-May demotion to Triple A.
Bettors have been hitting the Over all day as Wesneski should continue to pitch to contact and give up long balls — something he’s done 10 times over 43 innings this season.
Find out how I'll be fading the young hurler tonight in my MLB picks for the Cubs vs. Angels on Tuesday, June 6.
Cubs vs Angels odds
Cubs vs Angels predictions
Hayden Wesneski will be making his second start since an early-May demotion to Iowa, and although he allowed just a single run on one hit in his last turn, he went just 59 pitches and 11 total outs. THE BAT is projecting just 71 pitches and Under 13 outs for the Chicago starter, making his Under 4.5 strikeout prop at -152 +EV.
Other books are as low as 3.5 and considering the righty has never been a K/IP pitcher in Triple A over the last three years or over his 76 big-league innings, he is not a high-K rate pitcher. He does have elite command and a 65% strike rate, but he gets barrelled often and has a .400 AVG and a .705 SLG vs. his fastball this year.
The setting isn’t great for the Chicago Cubs starter either as 10 mph winds will be blowing out to center field at Angel Stadium, which is a deceptively good hitter’s park. The 63% humidity is also a Top 3 mark on the slate today.
There are multiple outs for Wesneski to be held to Under 4.5 strikeouts. The Los Angeles Angels could pile on Wesneski and chase him early, or he could also pass expectations and projections but finish with three or four punchouts Over 15 outs.
The more likely outcome is an abbreviated outing regardless of how well he pitches. Wesneski was solid in his last start vs. the Rays and still failed to hit the Over 4.5 Ks on 59 pitches.
My best bet: Wesneski Under 4.5 strikeouts (-152)
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Cubs vs Angels moneyline analysis
L.A. opened as short as -141 but has seen as much as a 25-point movement the other way, now sitting as a slight -115 home favorite. I always value the move of the market but considering there are no major injuries heading into this game, I feel this line has swung too far and is showing value on the Angels.
Tyler Anderson has struggled with walks and home runs which is why he has an FIP of 5.35, but Wesneski is not a pitcher that can move the line 25 points and almost make this game a pick ‘em.
Looking at the offenses, Los Angeles is getting healthier as rookie SS Zach Neto returned to the lineup on Sunday and Anthony Rendon is possible to return after missing a month. This is already an offense that ranks in the Top 10 in runs/9IP and faces a Cubs team that ranks 20th in the same category.
With Angel Stadium sitting as a decent home-run park today, that still favors the Angels who average 1.4 HRs per game (sixth) and Wesneski has allowed 10 home runs over 43 innings.
Unless I’m missing something, this movement is based on the love for Wesneski who was great last year as a rookie but has struggled this season. Anderson’s walk issues are a concern and the Cubs walk at a high rate, but that isn’t worth 25 points of movement and the Halos are the better team with home-field advantage.
I’m not jumping to bet on this but do think L.A. at -115 is the right side.
Cubs vs Angels Over/Under analysis
This total opened at 9.0 at Pinnacle but hit 10 as of 1:00 p.m. ET today.
The move to the Over was expected as this is a game that will feature a pair of HR-friendly pitchers who both struggle to get outs on the ground. Wesneski alone has a 20% HR/FB rate this year over 43 innings, meaning one of every five flyballs the Chicago starter allows leaves the yard.
Angel Stadium is also one of the better home-run parks on the slate today with high humidity and double-digit winds blowing out to center field. Both offense’s strengths are with the long ball as each club sits in the Top 10 in HR/game.
All of this is why bettors are seeing a full run move to the Over, but shopping around should help bettors find that 9.5 which is something I’m playing at -120 or better.
Cubs vs Angels game info
| Location: | Angel Stadium, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date: | Tuesday, June 6, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 9:38 p.m. ET |
| TV: | MLB Network |
Starting pitchers
Hayden Wesneski (2-2, 4.81 ERA): Wesneski comes into tonight with a 32:11 K/BB ratio over 43 innings and has made just one start since a demotion to Triple A earlier this month. Chicago is 4-5 SU when he starts and 0-4 SU in his last four starts. THE BAT is projecting 71 pitches, 12.5 outs, 3.49 strikeouts, and 2.49 earned runs.
Tyler Anderson (2-1, 5.47 ERA): Anderson has made 10 starts and has been roughed up in four of them where he has allowed five or more runs which is the reason for his high stats. He does have four quality starts under his belt, but a 33:25 K/BB ratio with seven home runs and 59 hits over 52+ total inning isn't helping the lefty. THE BAT projects 92 pitches, 16.6 outs, 4.55 strikeouts, and 3.05 earned runs.
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The Over is 3-0-1 in Anderson's last four starts on grass. Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Angels
