Cubs vs Brewers Predictions, Picks, Odds: Smyly Stymies Milwaukee Bats

The Chicago Cubs and Milwaukee Brewers will begin another critical inter-divisional three-game series this afternoon.

You could argue that the NL Central is the most competitive baseball division at the moment. The numbers would back you up, too. Six games separate fourth place (the Cubs) from first (the Brewers). Chicago arrives coming off back-to-back losses at the hands of the Cleveland Guardians, while Milwaukee is currently on a very modest two-game winning streak. 

Read on for my best bet and full MLB picks and predictions for Brewers vs. Cubs on Monday, July 3rd.

Cubs vs Brewers odds

Cubs vs Brewers predictions

Left-handed pitching has plagued the Milwaukee Brewers offense all season long. 

They have the lowest team batting average (.215), the lowest isolated power (.132), and the second-to-lowest WRC+ (78) against southpaws across the National League. If they ultimately don't take the divisional crown, I'd suspect that will end up being a significant reason why. Today, it leads the list of reasons why we're riding with Under 9 as our best bet.

As I said, seeing a left-handed hurler has been a struggle for Milwaukee. They'll see another one today when Drew Smyly takes the mound for the Chicago Cubs.

You can target the metric of your choice, but they all reveal the same information. The Brewers even have the highest strikeout rate in the league against lefties at 28%. Their last game against a left-handed starter saw New York Mets pitcher David Peterson deliver one of his best outings in the season when he posted six scoreless innings. For the season, Peterson has a 6.61 ERA even with that dominant showing under his belt.

It's a going concern for a Milwaukee offense struggling to produce. The Under is 18-5-3 in the Brewers' last 26 games with a total set between 9-10.5.

On the other side, I'm backing the bounce-back spot for Julio Teheran when he takes the hill for the Brew Crew. Perhaps surprisingly, Teheran has been a reliable pitcher for Milwaukee. That is until he faced the Mets in his last start and saw them score seven runs. New York was able to do two things well: Attack Teheran's most thrown pitch in the sinker, as they have four hitters in their lineup batting over .300 against it, and barrel pitches, which have been an issue for Teheran from time to time throughout his career.

Can the Cubs replicate either of these things? There are a few notable power bats in the lineup, but those bats pale compared to those of a team like the Mets. That's evidenced by a barrel rate near the bottom of the league. There's also little in the Chicago lineup that suggests success against the sinker, with only two players in today's lineup batting above league average against it.

I'm rolling Under for this afternoon's game. On one side, we have a team that has a heavily documented history of struggling against lefties. Conversely, we have solid situational trends that suggest success from today's starting pitcher Teheran. Don't expect a lot of runs at American Family Field.

My best bet: Under 9 (-105 at FanDuel)

Cubs vs Brewers same-game parlay

Under 8.5 (-105)

Julio Teheran Under 4.5 strikeouts (-145)

Dansby Swanson Over 1.5 total bases (+145)

+1,100 at bet365

We're grabbing Under 8.5 to lead off today's same gamer. Bet365 doesn't allow you to bet flat totals in their SGPs, and this number is still within the Under of our projections. We've paired it with a few non-correlated plays to maximize our multipliers.

Teheran's Under strikeouts prop is a follow of the BAT X lead. It projects this number, and this matchup is an interesting one. Teheran has one of the lowest strikeout rates in the majors and has failed to eclipse this number in three straight starts. On the other end of the spectrum, the Cubs strike out at a high clip because they chase a lot. The fortunate thing for us, and the ultimate reason why the Under is a take, is that Teheran only aims to get a little chase when he's on the mound. He throws a good amount of strikes and has a chase rate in the Bottom 30% of the league.

We're picking on Teheran one last time with Dansby Swanson to go Over 1.5 total bases. While the Cubs as a team don't hit the sinker well and don't have a high barrel clip, that is not the case for Swanson. He has one of the highest barrel rates in the league among qualified hitters, along with a batting average that exceeds .300 against the sinker. It should be an ideal matchup. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Cubs vs Brewers moneyline and Over/Under analysis

My ratings say Teheran is a slightly better pitcher, but the Brewers' struggles against left-handed pitchers cloud that. I won't have a side here, and, for what it's worth, I'm finding it hard to have much of a lean either. My projections made this game a coinflip, which is precisely what we've got. If you're looking for a team playing better baseball now, then that team is undoubtedly the Brewers. 

Regarding things for the Cubs, manager David Ross said it pretty simple after a series loss to the Philadelphia Phillies. 

"We've got to be better," Ross explained simply.

For the Brewers? Just look at the trends:

• Milwaukee is 5-1 in its last six games against a team from its own division.
• Milwaukee is 4-1 in its last five games overall.

There's also been some specific dominance of the Cubs. Milwaukee has 4-1 in the last five meetings between these two teams and 11-5 in the previous 16 meetings in Wisconsin.

You know how I feel about the total today. The Under has gone 4-0 in Chicago's last four games against a team with a winning record and has gone 4-1 in Milwakuee's previous four games against a team with a losing record. That is another example of why we should expect a low-scoring game this afternoon. 

Trend to know

The Under is 4-0 in the Cubs' last four games against a team with a winning record. Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Brewers

Cubs vs Brewers game info

Starting pitchers

Drew Smyly (7-5, 3.96 ERA): Smyly has been a reasonably cut-and-dry pitcher this season. His expected ERA is nearly identical to his actual ERA, and his expected FIP follows closely. The lefty is a true pitch-to-contact hurler with a low strikeout rate but is strong in other areas, like a hard-hit rate in the Top 15% of baseball. He arrives at this game off a bumpy June. It was a month in which he posted a 5.81 ERA — his highest of the year — in about 26 innings of baseball. That includes his most recent start against the Philadelphia Phillies, where he allowed seven earned runs in just over three innings. 

Julio Teheran (2-3, 2.85 ERA): Entering this season, Teheran hadn't pitched in the major leagues in over two years. Naturally, this caused questions about how the 32-year-old would deliver. He's been impressive with a 0.93 WHIP and had been close to downright dominant before his most recent start. It was likely a performance that was due for Teheran. He had always had some expected negative regression, and now his ERA more closely reflects his quality of pitches this season. The main issue here is Teheran's whiff rate, which sits in the Bottom 7% of baseball. 

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