The Chicago Cubs (75-70) are one game away from a surprising road sweep of the Los Angeles Dodgers (86-59). Game 3 goes down Wednesday night with a matchup between Chicago’s Jordan Wicks and L.A.’s Bobby Miller.
My Cubs vs. Dodgers predictions and MLB picks believe Miller will shine in this spot, as will Shohei Ohtani on Wednesday, September 11.
Cubs vs Dodgers prediction
My best bet
Bobby Miller Over 5.5 strikeouts (+106 at FanDuel)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
It may seem crazy to buy Bobby Miller stock right now. This season has been an abject disaster for the 25-year-old Los Angeles Dodgers hurler as he’s been rocked for a 7.79 ERA, a 6.64 xERA, and a 6.80 FIP.
This simply wasn’t the assumed follow-up to last year’s rookie season that saw him dazzle with a 3.76 ERA, 3.40 xERA, and 3.51 FIP across 124 1/3 innings. While I’m not ready to state that we should expect a return to form sooner rather than later for the young pitcher, there is one part of his profile that stands out.
After being unable to generate strikeouts for much of the year, Miller has flipped the script lately by notching eight Ks against the Angels in his last start and nine Ks against the Rays two outings before that.
Considering he’d notched no more than four strikeouts in any of his previous starts, these two performances stood out like a pair of sore thumbs.
Diving into those games, he had a 31% CSW% against the Angels and a 35% CSW% against the Rays. His season-long mark of 24.9% is well down from the 28.2% he posted a year ago, so his recent ability to generate both called and swinging strikes is a positive sign that he’s figuring some things out on the mound.
He slightly ramped up the usage of his curveball in both outings, generating 10 CS+Whiffs each time with the offering.
There are strikeouts to be had against a Chicago Cubs lineup with a 24.4% K-rate against right-handed pitching in the last 15 days. I’ll bet on Miller eclipsing 5.5 strikeouts in a matchup where Dave Roberts could give him a long leash considering the Dodgers have a banged-up bullpen that has been taxed for nine innings of work in this series.
Shohei Ohtani pick: Home cooking
My best bet
Shohei Ohtani Over 1.5 total bases (+110 at bet365)
My analysis
This is a five-star recommendation in our MLB player props page for a reason.
Shohei Ohtani has collected two hits in three of his last five games. He’s always a terror for opposing pitchers, but that’s especially true at home.
He’s been unbelievable at Dodger Stadium, posting a 182 wRC+ and .428 wOBA. Therefore, it shouldn’t be surprising that he’s eclipsed 1.5 total bases in eight of his last 13 home games.
The Cubs will likely have just one left-handed reliever available for Wednesday. Why is that relevant? Ohtani will hold a significant advantage over the RHPs coming out of the pen as he’s crushed righties with a 193 wRC+ and .448 wOBA, and we could see the pen early as Jordan Wicks usually doesn’t have the longest leash.
Cubs vs Dodgers same-game parlay (SGP)
Bobby Miller Over 5.5 strikeouts
Shohei Ohtani Over 1.5 total bases
Under 9
Although the wind will be blowing out at 6-9 mph, it’ll be a cool night in the mid-60s, and therefore the weather isn’t necessarily conducive to an offensive explosion.
The Dodger bats have been sleepy as they’ve dropped the first two games of the series while scoring seven runs, and Wicks has impressed with a 4.03 ERA and 3.23 FIP through nine appearances.
Both teams have been trending toward the Over but I view this more as a sell-high spot as the total is up to 9. That’s a tad high.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Cubs vs Dodgers odds
Cubs vs Dodgers live odds
Cubs vs Dodgers opening odds
- Moneyline: Chicago +146 | Los Angeles -160
- Run line: Chicago +1.5 | Los Angeles -1.5
- Over/Under: Over 9 | Under 9
Cubs vs Dodgers moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- Jordan Wicks has been slightly less effective on the road (4.35 ERA) than at home (3.63 ERA).
- L.A. has been tough to beat at home, covering the run line in 18 of their last 30 games at Dodger Stadium.
- L.A. has cashed its F5 team total Over in 21 of its last 34 games.
- The Cubs are 1-7 O/U in Wicks’ last eight starts.
Cubs vs Dodgers trend
Bobby Miller has gone Over his strikeout prop in two of his last three starts while averaging 6.7 Ks in that span. Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Dodgers.
Cubs vs Dodgers game info
| Location: | Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date: | Wednesday, 9-11-2024 |
| First pitch: | 10:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | MARQ, SNLA |
| Cubs starting pitcher: | Jordan Wicks (2-3, 4.03 ERA) |
| Dodgers starting pitcher: | Bobby Miller (2-4, 7.79 ERA) |
Cubs vs Dodgers latest injuries
Cubs vs Dodgers weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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