The Chicago Cubs are looking to make it five in a row with a win over the Cleveland Guardians at Progressive Field tonight with the two clubs playing the first of their three-game set.
Chicago is a road favorite with lefty Shota Imanaga toeing the rubber, and Cleveland will counter with righty Ben Lively. My Cubs vs. Guardians predictions aren't counting on home cooking.
Here are our top MLB picks for tonight’s series opener.
Cubs vs Guardians prediction
My best bet
Cubs moneyline (-117 at Pinnacle)
My analysis
Cleveland Guardians starter Ben Lively has overachieved this season and hasn't been sharp across his past 10 starts. The journeyman righty sports a 4.61 ERA and 4.83 xFIP during the stretch, and opposing hitters have squared him up for a 42.0% hard-hit rate. Lively has been quite lucky, too, as his .240 BABIP is even lower than the .267 mark he posted through his first 10 starts of the year. For comparison, he had a .297 BABIP across 88 2/3 innings last year.
As a result, I give the Chicago Cubs a notable edge in the starting pitching matchup, with Shota Imanaga continuing to pitch well for the North Siders. While he’s certainly been the beneficiary of some good fortune with his 3.06 ERA well below his 3.70 xFIP, those two marks still impressively rank 16th and 30th among the 95 starting pitchers with at least 100 innings.
I also value Imanaga facing the Guardians for the first time in his career, while the Cubs scored 13 runs over just four innings against Lively last season.
Chicago also enters in far better offensive form with a seventh-ranked .343 wOBA and 5.11 runs per over nine August games, while Cleveland sports a 25th-ranked .301 wOBA while scoring 4.63 per.
Finally, I respect the market moving in Chicago's direction and still feel comfortable playing this -117 Pinnacle number with multiple shops as steep as -125.
Cubs vs Guardians same-game parlay (SGP)
Cubs moneyline
Cubs TT Over 3.5
Ben Lively Under 16.5 outs
The two additional legs of this same-game parlay align with my best bet and, as discussed, I expect a splash of statistical correction to come Lively’s way. He’s also recorded 16 or fewer outs in four of his past six starts.
Additionally, Chicago has scored four or more runs in eight of its past 10 games, and has been one of the best offenses in baseball since the calendar flipped to August.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Cubs vs Guardians odds
Cubs vs Guardians live odds
Cubs vs Guardians opening odds
- Run line: Chicago -1.5 (+150)| Cleveland +1.5 (-180)
- Moneyline: Chicago -115 | Cleveland -105
- Over/Under: Over 8 (-110) | Under 8 (-110)
Cubs vs Guardians spread and Over/Under analysis
- The movement to the Chicago side aligns with Lively’s underwhelming underlying statistics.
- While it hasn’t been a huge shift, the Cubs opening at -105 at Pinnacle and moving to -117 by Monday afternoon is enough of an adjustment to respect.
- This total has been all over the map through Pinnacle, opening at 8.5 and dropping to 7.5 early Monday afternoon before settling at 8.0.
- For comparison, bet365 hasn’t moved off its opening 8.0 number, and there haven’t been any actionable adjustments to the odds.
Cubs vs Guardians trend
The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 32 games (+9.35 Units / 24% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Guardians.
Cubs vs Guardians game info
| Location: | Progressive Field, Cleveland, OH |
| Date: | Monday, 8-12-2024 |
| First pitch: | 6:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports Great Lakes, Marquee Sports Network |
| Cubs starting pitcher: | Shota Imanaga (9-2, 3.06 ERA) |
| Guardians starting pitcher: | Ben Lively (10-7, 3.59 ERA) |
Cubs vs Guardians latest injuries
Cubs vs Guardians weather
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