The Chicago Cubs and the New York Mets will play the finale of a three-game series at Citi Field on Wednesday night.
The Mets have been a tough team to figure out since they embarked on the easiest September schedule in the majors by opponent win percentage, as they’re 6-6 to begin the month.
New York is on the verge of getting swept at home by a Cubs team that’s been out of the playoff picture since Memorial Day.
Can the Amazins salvage this game against Chicago? Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for Cubs vs Mets on Wednesday, September 14.
Cubs vs Mets best odds
Cubs vs Mets picks and predictions
The Mets have not been the easiest team to trust since the calendar flipped to September, losing six times as a betting favorite through 12 games. That includes their most recent defeat as -450 favorites with Jacob deGrom on the hill on Tuesday night.
Eduardo Escobar went 0-for-4 at the plate in that tilt but he has nonetheless been New York’s best batter this month. Whether the Mets have scored five runs or more (like they have in their six September victories) or three runs or fewer (like they have in their six losses this month), Escobar has continued to hit, and he’s not just scratching out soft singles. The Venezuela native has five multi-hit games in his last seven starts and owns a 1.296 OPS in September.
Escobar has five homers and nine RBI this month and has struck out just six times in 43 at-bats. This is a far cry from his last few months as a Met, as he recorded a .706 OPS or worse in every month since April when he played to an .804 OPS.
With the run the Mets’ everyday third baseman has been on, prop bettors should not be content to settle on the approximate -190 odds listed for him to get a hit. Instead, prop players should invest in Escobar to get to two total bases or more against the Cubs.
Escobar has exceeded 1.5 total bases in seven of his last 11 contests. He also has fantastic numbers against Chicago starter Drew Smyly, picking up seven hits over just 12 prior at-bats. Four of those hits have left the ballpark.
Escobar has eight hits against Cubs pitching spread over 25 at-bats this season, including a four-bagger. While it’s tempting to take him to record another round-tripper at about +400 (depending on where you look), the safer but still rewarding play is for him to reach two total bases.
My best bet: Eduardo Escobar Over 1.5 total bases (+135)
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Cubs vs Mets betting preview
Jump to:
•Side analysis •Over/Under analysis •Starting pitchers •Injuries •Weather •Trend to know
Moneyline analysis
Mets moneyline bettors have to be at least somewhat gun-shy in this spot after watching New York drop each of the first two games of this series as colossal favorites, but it’s difficult to justify a play on the Cubs with Smyly on the mound.
Smyly owns a 4.45 ERA and .265 opponent batting average over 56 2-3 innings of work on the road this year. That contrasts sharply with his 2.38 ERA and .210 opponent batting average at Wrigley Field this season. He labored through 4 1-3 innings and 83 pitches against the Mets in their only meeting this year, allowing two runs (one earned) on five hits and a walk before getting the hook on July 16.
In addition to Escobar, several New York batters have solid lifetime numbers against Smyly. Francisco Lindor, James McCann, and Brandon Nimmo are a combined 13-for-32 (.406) off the southpaw from Arkansas with two homers and seven RBI.
David Peterson doesn’t inspire as much confidence on the hill as deGrom, but he’s capable of giving the Mets five effective innings. He’s piled up 31 strikeouts over his last 25 innings and takes on a Cubs team that’s accumulated the sixth-most strikeouts in baseball this year.
Stringing together solid middle relief has been a challenge for manager Buck Showalter, but if this game is close late, don’t be shocked if closer Edwin Diaz is asked to get up to six outs here. Diaz’s appearance on Tuesday night was only his third of the month.
Over/Under analysis
The Cubs’ offense has shown some tenacity in this series, and the Mets’ bats are capable of breaking out at any time. Total bettors should lean toward the Over on a fairly low line.
Chicago chased two very effective starters in Chris Bassitt and deGrom to begin this three-game set, and face their easiest assignment of the three in Peterson in this spot. New York’s bullpen – which owns a 4.32 ERA this month (21st in the majors in that span) – will likely be tasked with extra work in this contest.
But the Cubs’ bullpen hasn’t been any better, authoring a 5.17 ERA in September, 23rd in the majors. Brandon Hughes has hardly been dependable in the closer’s role, pairing two saves with a 6.00 ERA. Manuel Rodriguez (7.71 ERA) and Sean Newcomb (7.50 ERA) have also given manager David Ross reason to squirm late in games this month.
It’s quite possible Smyly fails to finish five innings against New York, which is sixth in baseball in runs per game (4.68), setting up the potential for some late-inning rallies.
Cubs vs Mets game info
• Location: Citi Field, Queens, NY
• Date: Wednesday, September 14, 2022
• First pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
• TV: Marquee Sports Network, SportsNet New York
Starting pitchers
Drew Smyly (6-8, 3.57 ERA): After posting an incredible 0.90 ERA in August, Drew Smyly was greeted rudely by the Cardinals in September, as he surrendered seven earned runs over 2 1-3 innings before being sent to the showers. However, he bounced back by limiting the Giants to one unearned run over seven frames on Friday.
David Peterson (7-4, 3.47 ERA): David Peterson is essentially filling in for Max Scherzer in the Mets rotation, and based on the way he’s performed in his last few starts, there won’t be a “Mad Max” imitation in this game. Peterson has allowed nine earned runs over his last 19 2-3 innings. The numbers look even worse if you factor out his six shutout frames against the moribund Rockies' road offense.
Key injuries
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Betting trend to know
The Cubs are 1-7 in their last eight games following a win. Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Mets
