The National League Central looks like it will be fun all season, making this series between the Chicago Cubs and the Cincinnati Reds all the more exciting.
The Great American Ballpark is known for surrendering more than its fair share of runs, but we've got an underrated pitching duel, and my Cubs vs Reds predictions expect little offense in the first five on June 6. Read all about it in the MLB picks ahead!
Cubs vs Reds prediction
My best bet
Under 5 first five innings (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
Javier Assad vs. Hunter Greene may not make casual baseball fans' ears perk up, but let me tell you — these guys can huck it.
Assad is following up a breakout campaign in 2023 by pitching to a 3.72 expected ERA while limiting opponents to a .234 expected batting average, and right handers have been a problem for the Cincinnati Reds.
Cincy ranks 26th in batting average, 23rd in OPS, and 27th in wRC+ when facing RHP this season to go along with the second-highest strikeout rate. Assad is also coming off a performance against this same lineup where he struck out seven and held them to two runs on five hits over 5 1/3 innings of work.
Meanwhile, Greene is turning into the pitcher many thought he could become when he was the Reds' top prospect. The 24-year-old fireballer is striking out 25.9% of the batters he sees while sporting a 2.88 ERA and .193 xBA.
The Chicago Cubs just tagged him for five runs last time out, but Greene was done in by five walks and a grand slam. Otherwise, he gave up just three hits. Plus, Chicago has its own issues vs. righties, ranking 25th in batting average, 20th in OPS, and 19th in wRC+.
I think we’re getting a bit of a bloated total due to that recent Greene performance and the fact this game is being played at the Great American Ballpark, but pitching will be the story early here, and I’ll happily take the Under first five with this elevated number.
Cubs vs Reds same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 5.5 first five innings
Dansby Swanson Under 0.5 hits
Jonathan India Under 0.5 hits
Good pitching means hits should be hard to come by in this matchup. Let’s start with Dansby Swanson.
The Cubbies shortstop is having an ugly season at the dish, hitting just .212 with a .627 OPS, and Greene has been a tough matchup for him. Swanson is 0-for-7 with four strikeouts in his career vs. the Reds righty, translating to a .086 xBA and a .100 xSLG.
But let’s not leave the struggles to the North Siders. Jonathan India is struggling against RHP this season with a .217 average and a .645 OPS, and he’s just 1-for-8 with two strikeouts in his career vs. Assad. That works out to a .169 xBA and a.260 xSLG.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Cubs vs Reds odds
Cubs vs Reds live odds
Cubs vs Reds opening odds
- Run line: Chicago +1.5 (-190) | Cincinnati -1.5 (+160)
- Moneyline: Chicago +105 | Cincinnati -125
- Over/Under: Over 9.0 (-110)| Under 9.0 (-110)
Cubs vs Reds spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Reds opened this NL Central matchup as -125 home favorites and that's about where the line sits as of Thursday afternoon.
- The Reds took the first series between these two last week, but both Assad and Greene lost their respective starts.
- The total hit the board at 9.0 and has been bet up to 9.5.
- As noted, I believe this number is now a little bloated due to location and recent results instead of looking at the pitcher's overall performance.
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Cubs vs Reds trend
The Reds have hit the game total Under in 13 of their last 20 games at home for +7.45 Units and a 34% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Reds
Cubs vs Reds game info
| Location: | Great American Ballpark, Cincinnati, OH |
| Date: | Thursday, 6-6-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Marquee, Bally Ohio |
| Cubs starting pitcher: | Javier Assad (4-1, 2.17 ERA) |
| Reds starting pitcher: | Hunter Greene (3-2, 3.06 ERA) |
Cubs vs Reds latest injuries
Cubs vs Reds weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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