The Chicago Cubs have ripped off four straight wins including last night’s 7-3 victory in the series opener of the Crosstown Classic vs. the Chicago White Sox. Now the visitors, who sit two games back of .500 and five games back of the Wild Card, send Marcus Stroman to the bump to oppose Lance Lynn with the visitors sitting as a slight favorites on the MLB odds for the second straight day.
With Lynn’s long leash and league-leading long balls, should bettors be fading the veteran starter’s earned run market for the best value in a game where bettors are backing the Over?
Find out where my best bets lie in our MLB picks and predictions for Cubs vs. White Sox for Wednesday, July 26.
Cubs vs White Sox odds
Cubs vs White Sox predictions
Lance Lynn is not a pitcher who gets pulled when things are going south. This is a veteran who has a 6.18 ERA but still averages over 101 pitches per start and nearly six innings per turn.
It’s no surprise with that leash and that ERA that he leads all pitchers in earned runs allowed at 0.69 per inning and a lot of that has to do with the home runs he allows which could be on display tonight.
Lynn has allowed a league-best 28 home runs and has a sightly 21.5% HR/FB rate. He’s a flyball pitcher who faces a surging Chicago Cubs offense and will be battling the elements at Guaranteed Rate Field tonight.
Like many other parks today, GRF is favoring hitters with 9-mph winds blowing out and near-90-degree temperatures. It’s a perfect breeding ground for dingers tonight and Lynn is the perfect pitcher to serve them up.
The White Sox right-hander’s earned run total is sitting at 2.5 and just -135 to the Over. It isn’t a lot of juice to pay for a pitcher who has allowed at least three earned runs in 75% of his starts this year.
The conditions are great, the opponent is on fire, and the price is just right for this Over 2.5 earned runs vs. a Chicago team that has hit the team total Over in 22 of its last 35 games for a 20% ROI.
My best bet: Lance Lynn Over 2.5 earned (-130 at bet365)
Cubs vs White Sox same-game parlay
Lynn Over 2.5 earned runs (-130)
Bellinger Over 1.5 total bases (+130)
Swanson Over 1.5 total bases (+160)
There are a lot of bodies in this Chicago lineup that can touch 'em all but Cody Bellinger is the hottest hitter on the planet and coming off a hitless night. He is still hitting .424 with a 1.152 OPS over the last 30 days and has tagged Lynn for a home run over five career at-bats.
The other part of this SGP is with Dansby Swanson who is hitting in the six spot but is doing damage since his return. The infielder is 7-for-13 with two walks since rejoining the club and launched two homers last night. He has 14 total bases over that three-game sample.
Lynn has also given up at least three earned runs in 15 of his 20 starts and has one of the longest leashes in all of baseball.
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Cubs vs White Sox moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Cubs have won four straight and six of their last seven entering tonight as this is a team making it difficult for the front office who wanted to sell at the All-Star break. Chicago is two games below .500 but just five games back of the final Wild Card spot in the NL. This is a Top-10 offense in July that is at full health with Dansby Swanson back and has a substantial pitching advantage today but is not being priced that way.
Last night, the Cubs closed as a -120 road favorite in a starting pitching matchup that was much more even in Kyle Hendricks vs. Michael Kopech. Today, the Cubbies throw out Marcus Stroman who is currently the No.6 betting favorite in NL Cy Young odds and faces one of the worst offenses in the Chicago White Sox who rank 28th in wOBA and 27th in wRC+ this month.
This surging Cubs offense gets to face the long-leashed Lance Lynn who has allowed the most earned runs (79) and home runs (28) in all of baseball. Lynn gave up four homes in his last outing and two before that. Lynn has surrendered at least four runs in 12 of his 20 starts this season and at least three runs in 15 of those.
The Cubs have a serious starting pitching advantage — more than yesterday — but bettors aren’t seeing much of an adjustment on the ML which has me playing the Cubs for a second straight day.
The Over is certainly in play today, as well. Yesterday’s Over 9 was a very popular pick and bettors are back on the Over again today as this total opened at 8.5 and currently sits at 9.
The wind is blowing out to left (9mph) and it’s going to be in the high-80s at game time. That’s also favoring the Cubs vs. the HR-friendly Lynn compared to the Sox’s offense that faces a groundball pitcher in Stroman.
With the off day on Monday, both bullpens are rested and have all arms available. Neither bullpen is good but Stroman could stifle this struggling White Sox offense that is 4-for-31 with RISP over its last three games. It’s just the Cubs ML at -106 for me.
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Trend to know
The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 23 of their last 38 games (+6.95 Units / 15% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. White Sox
Cubs vs White Sox game info
| Location: | Guaranteed Rate Field, Chicago, IL |
| Date: | Wednesday, July 26, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 8:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | MARQ, NBCSCH |
Starting pitchers
Marcus Stroma (10-7, 3.09 ERA): Stroman is still the No.6 betting favorite for NL Cy Young and is making his 21st start. He comes in with a 105/46 K:BB ratio over 122 1/3 innings and just seven home runs allowed. The right-hander does own a 6.76 ERA over his last five starts but his groundball rate should help him out with decent hitting conditions today. The Cubs are 11-10 SU when he starts and THE BAT is projecting 91 pitches, 16.7 outs, 4.60 strikeouts, and 2.70 earned runs.
Lance Lynn (6-9, 6.18 ERA): Lynn has been earning his paycheck this year as he has logged big minutes over his 20 starts and leads the league in earned runs and home runs allowed. He carries a 139/43 K:BB rate over 115 innings and averages 101 pitches per start. He’s a flyball pitcher who should be pitching better than his numbers but has a tough spot tonight in this matchup with solid hitting conditions. The White Sox are 8-12 SU when he starts and THE BAT is projecting 102 pitches, 18.2 outs, 6.72 strikeouts, and 3.12 earned runs.
