The New York Yankees had been picking up some steam heading into the week, but they’ve now lost three straight after getting blanked 3-0 on Friday night. With their ace on the hill, might things turn around on Saturday against the Chicago Cubs?
Let’s break down Cubs vs. Yankees in our MLB picks and predictions for Saturday, July 8.
Cubs vs Yankees odds
Cubs vs Yankees predictions
Drew Smyly’s got a couple things working against him today in this matchup. For starters, he’s left-handed and will deal to a Yankees team which is just outside the Top 10 in Major League Baseball with a 108 wRC+ to lefties. The other is that he’s a fly ball pitcher.
That’s right, Smyly’s fly ball rate is up to 26.6% this season, which is over three points clear of the league average, and his ground ball rate has plummeted to 34%, which is roughly 10 points lower than average. As we know, Yankee Stadium is one of the worst places to pitch to fly balls considering it ranks third in park factor for home runs.
The Yankees are also incredibly adept at converting fly balls into home runs with a 14.6% home run-to-fly ball ratio, making this a very difficult task for Smyly. He’s been able to rely on some solid defense behind him all season, but the conditions in New York should make for a tough outing.
New York may be slumping at the moment, but it should pull this one out quite easily.
My best bet: Yankees -1.5 (+105 at DraftKings)
Cubs vs Yankees same-game parlay
Yankees ML
Bader 2+ Total Bases
Smyly Under 3.5 Strikeouts
This one should be well within reason. I know I just took the Yankees to cover the run line above, but in a parlay we have the luxury of taking some heavier odds to create a safer leg. Therefore, I’m going to opt for the outright moneyline.
Then, I will be backing the man on the Yankees who hits the most fly balls of anyone, and that’s Harrison Bader. Not only is he an extreme fly ball guy at around 50%, he also mashes lefties. In just 34 plate appearances against southpaws this year, Bader owns a 1.379 OPS with four home runs. He should get an extra base hit here, at the very least.
Finally, we’ve got the Under on Smyly strikeouts. Not only should he struggle to last long in this game, he owns a 19.7% strikeout rate, which puts him in the bottom 27% of the league. The Yankees are striking out in under 19% of plate appearances over the last week which is an extremely good number, and I love them to hit this Under.
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Cubs vs Yankees moneyline and Over/Under analysis
We’ve done a lot of talking about Drew Smyly against this Yankees offense, but what about Gerrit Cole against the Cubs? Well, I’m not sure it’s a great matchup for the visitors.
The Cubs are striking out nearly 25% of the time over the past week, which makes for a pretty brutal test against a guy with a 26% strikeout rate which just continues to rise. Though he punched out just five in his last outing, he finished June with 34 strikeouts in 30 innings.
This leads me to believe that the Cubs should have some serious issues here. Cole has also been burned by home runs and walks at times, but the Cubs have a very weak .116 ISO in the last week with a low 7.5% walk rate. I don’t think Chicago can muster up enough to cash the Over here, so I’d lean towards the Under.
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Trend to know
The Yankees are 5-0 in their last five games when their opponent allows two runs or less in their previous game. Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Yankees
Cubs vs Yankees game info
| Location: | Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY |
| Date: | Saturday, July 8, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 1:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | MLBN |
Starting pitchers
Drew Smyly (7-5, 4.10 ERA): The veteran lefty is trending in the wrong direction. After posting a solid 3.09 ERA in the month of May, Smyly posted a 5.81 in June before starting off July on the wrong foot. He gave up three runs on four hits and three walks in 3 2/3 innings against the Brewers last time out.
Gerrit Cole (8-2, 2.79 ERA): Cole’s ERA has yet to rise to three runs this season, and his strikeout numbers continue to trend upwards. He’s given up just 10 earned runs over his last six outings and is coming off a strong performance against the St. Louis Cardinals in which he gave up just six hits over six innings and struck out five. The five-time All-Star presently ranks sixth in the AL with 118 punch outs.
