The Arizona Diamondbacks will try to solidify their postseason position on Friday as they visit the Chicago Cubs for second game of a four-game series.
The Diamondbacks (73-68) opened the series with a 6-2 win on Thursday, but the MLB odds still say they’re an underdog to make the playoffs. The Cubs (76-65) remain in a commanding position in the National League Wild Card race, and sit just two games back of the Milwaukee Brewers in the NL Central.
Sportsbooks are expecting a low-scoring affair today, but neither starting pitcher has been great as of late. We’ll break down the matchup in our free MLB picks and predictions for Diamondbacks vs. Cubs on September 8.
Diamondbacks vs Cubs odds
Diamondbacks vs Cubs predictions
The Arizona Diamondbacks have won two straight, but hold just a half-game lead over the Miami Marlins and Cincinnati Reds for the final Wild Card position in the National League. That makes every game critical, and for Friday’s showdown, the Diamondbacks are handing the ball to 28-year-old righty Zac Gallen.
Gallen made his first All-Star Game this year, and is enjoying a second straight excellent season as he comes into the prime of his career. However, while his 3.48 ERA is solid, he hasn’t been the same pitcher as of late.
In his last two starts, Gallen has allowed 11 runs over 10 2/3 innings of work. The Diamondbacks have lost both of these games. Perhaps most concerningly, Gallen has allowed four homers in those two outings, continuing his recent propensity for giving up the long ball.
While Gallen has struggled over his last two outings, the Diamondbacks likely still have confidence in their starter. The same might not be true for the Chicago Cubs, who are sending Jameson Taillon to the hill.
Taillon is muddling through the worst season of his career, and things haven’t gotten better in the second half. After a promising July, Taillon went 2-3 with a 5.23 ERA in August. His first start in September wasn’t any better, as he allowed five runs on seven hits in 5 2/3 innings against the Reds.
Like Gallen, Taillon has been allowing too many home runs, giving up 1.7 bombs per nine innings. He’s allowing more baserunners this year as well, all without improving any of his peripherals to counteract this decline.
These two struggling starters will now face capable opposing lineups in Friday’s important showdown. The Cubs are among the league leaders in scoring, averaging 5.09 runs per game, while the Diamondbacks (4.70 runs per game) are also above average in that department.
Despite the offensive production and the shaky pitchers on the mound, oddsmakers are predicting a low-scoring game today. The total is just 7.5 runs at most books, and the Under is still the favorite in most cases.
It’s not as though these teams are incapable of playing into a pitcher’s duel, but that feels unlikely today. I’m taking the Over at 7.5 runs, with the bonus of premium odds on this side of the market.
My best bet: Over 7.5 (+105 at PointsBet)
Diamondbacks vs Cubs same-game parlay
Over 7.5
Diamondbacks moneyline
Corbin Carroll 2+ Total Bases
For my same-game parlay, I’m starting with my best bet and taking the Over at 7.5 runs. Since I think Gallen is the more likely pitcher to get back to form on Friday, I’m going to base the rest of this SGP around the Diamondbacks and their offense, which should find success against Taillon.
First, I’m backing Arizona to win the game outright. Gallen is the much better pitcher here, and otherwise, these teams are close to evenly matched. The Cubs may be the home team, but they deserve to be a significant underdog in this contest.
Finally, let’s pick NL Rookie of the Year odds frontrunner Corbin Carroll to pick up at least two bases. Carroll will get at least a couple of looks at Taillon, and he’s capable of hitting against anyone the Cubs throw out of the bullpen as well.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Diamondbacks vs Cubs moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Diamondbacks opened today’s game as a -110 favorite. That line has lengthened a bit since then, and as of Friday morning, the consensus moneyline is closer to Arizona -120. You can still find -115 on the Diamondbacks, or get +105 on the Cubs.
The Diamondbacks have been solid on the moneyline this year, making nearly seven units for backers. Bettors have found even more success with the Cubs, who have made them over 8.5 units so far in 2023.
I’m leaning towards Arizona on the moneyline here. Taillon is just too unreliable to consider taking the Cubs, and while I don’t know that Gallen will suddenly recover his first-half form, I have more confidence in him showing up with a solid performance today.
The total in today’s game opened at 7.5 runs, and has stayed firm at that number at most books. Even at that low number, the Under is the favorite, as you can’t get better than -118. The Over is available at +105.
The Diamondbacks have played below the number for most of this season, with the Under going 73-61 on the year in their games. Chicago has been one of the higher-scoring teams in the National League, and the Over has gone 71-66 when the Cubs play as a result.
Given the low total, I’m playing the Over in this game. Both teams average a total of 9.50 runs per game, and the pitching matchup isn’t nearly strong enough to buck this trend that significantly. With a plus number attached to the Over, that’s the clear play.
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Trend to know
The Cubs have played to a total of eight runs or more in four of their past five games. Find more MLB betting trends for Diamondbacks vs. Cubs
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Diamondbacks vs Cubs game info
| Location: | Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL |
| Date: | Friday, September 8, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 2:20 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports Arizona, Marquee Network |
Starting pitchers
Zac Gallen (14-7, 3.48 ERA): The 28-year-old Gallen made his first All-Star team this year, after coming off a season in which he finished fifth in the NL Cy Young Award voting. Despite struggles in his last two starts, Gallen is still the star of the Arizona rotation, and the Diamondbacks will need him to get back into form in order to reach the postseason. In his last start, Gallen allowed five runs on eight hits over 5 1/3 innings against the Baltimore Orioles.
Jameson Taillon (7-9, 5.73 ERA): While Taillon has generally been a solid enough starter throughout his career, he is having his worst year ever in his first season with the Cubs. Not only has Taillon pitched to a 5.51 ERA while allowing 24 home runs in just 127 1/3 innings, but he has a negative WAR (-1.0) according to Baseball Reference. In his last start, Taillon gave up five runs on seven hits in 5 2/3 innings against the Reds.
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