The Diamondbacks are red-hot, entering Monday the winner of 12 games in their last 15 tries. They’ll put their form to the ultimate test against Bobby Miller and the NL West-leading Dodgers to begin the week, but they'll have staff ace Zac Gallen on the bump.
Let’s break down the MLB odds and more in our MLB picks and predictions for Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers on Monday, August 28.
Diamondbacks vs Dodgers odds
Diamondbacks vs Dodgers predictions
It’s generally a good idea to bet on Zac Gallen against the Los Angeles Dodgers. In 10 career starts versus his staunch NL West rival, he owns a 2.88 ERA with 72 punchouts in 59 1/3 innings. Though he did have a poor start against them earlier in the year, the righty had a rough start to the season overall and has made great strides since then.
Gallen’s been lights-out in August with a 2.01 ERA while recording 36 strikeouts in 31 1/3 innings. Holding a strong 26.8% K-rate, he continues to stand as one of the premier strikeout artists in the National League, suggesting that he could lead the Diamondbacks to an upset win in L.A. on Monday.
Although I have a strong admiration for Bobby Miller, it's quite evident that he's not yet reached his full potential as the dominant pitcher we anticipate him to be.
Presently, the expected batting average (xBA) against both his fastball and sinker stands at .272 or worse. This poses a significant challenge, especially considering that Arizona’s lineup has shown proficiency against those particular pitches.
The D-Backs hold a respectable position in the Top 11 for run value per 100 four-seam fastballs and sinkers. Moreover, in the past two weeks, they've achieved a solid 106 wRC+.
Given these factors, I think the Diamondbacks are the way to go here. I’ll take the first five innings moneyline to avoid a stellar Dodgers bullpen that's second in baseball by ERA this month.
My best bet: Diamondbacks F5 moneyline (+120 at FanDuel)
Diamondbacks vs Dodgers same-game parlay
Diamondbacks moneyline
Zac Gallen 6+ strikeouts
Tommy Pham 2+ total bases
I’m loving the prospects of this parlay. Since it’s hard to find a book that will let you put a first-five line in your same-gamer, I’ll take the D-Backs to win this game outright in what I think is a good spot for Gallen and his boys.
The swings and misses are beginning to pile up for Gallen, and as a result he’s now struck out six or more in five of his last six outings. Even in his first start of the season against the Dodgers — where he allowed five earned runs — he managed to punch out seven. He’s also historically had great strikeout numbers against this foe.
Tommy Pham is on fire at the moment, hitting .286 over his last 17 games with just one hitless day at the yard during that span. He remains an amazing hitter against fastballs with a .317 xBA and .540 xSLG, which makes him a great matchup against the flamethrowing Miller.
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Diamondbacks vs Dodgers moneyline and Over/Under analysis
Miller’s been so up and down, it’s really tough to say whether or not he’s going to throw five scoreless or allow five runs on any given night. While I think the Diamondbacks’ excellence against fastballs should really pay dividends here, I do ultimately think this game will go Under.
Gallen has allowed just four runs in his last four starts, and even though Miller did allow four runs last time out against the Guardians, he’s only allowed more than three runs twice since his worst start of the season on June 24th.
It’s important to note that while 58% of the bets are on the Over, just 45% of the money has come in on that bet. That means there’s some big money on the Under.
There isn’t much of a difference between the tickets and the money when it comes to the D-Backs moneyline; just 22% of the bets are on the underdogs here with 24% of the handle.
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Trend to know
The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 29 of their last 56 away games (+9.40 Units / 14% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers
Diamondbacks vs Dodgers game info
| Location: | Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date: | Monday, August 28, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 10:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ARID, SportsNet Los Angeles |
Starting pitchers
Zac Gallen (14-5, 3.11 ERA): Gallen owns a 2.01 ERA this month, and he’s done an excellent job at keeping the ball in the yard with just two home runs against him. He struck out 11 in his most recent outing against the Rangers, which may have been his most impressive start of the season.
Bobby Miller (7-3, 3.86 ERA): Probably the best pitching prospect in all of baseball right now, the rookie had an excellent start to the season followed by some inconsistent results. Miller had calmed down until he allowed four earned over 6 1/3 innings in his last start, which came against the Guardians.
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