The Arizona Diamondbacks are 1-3 straight up since a six-game winning streak and are at risk of being swept by a Los Angeles Dodgers team that have outscored the D-backs 16-5 through two games. It will be LA call-up Ryan Pepiot making the start for the -175 home favorites while the visitors will counter with Brandon Pfaadt.
Thanks to some favorable hitting conditions and the Dodgers having one of their best winning months in the history of the franchise, is betting against a rookie pitcher in Pfaadt the best move for bettors tonight?
Find out where my best bets lie in our free MLB picks and predictions for Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers on August 30.
Diamondbacks vs Dodgers odds
Diamondbacks vs Dodgers predictions
It’s never easy for a visiting pitcher at Dodger Stadium to navigate the Los Angeles Dodgers lineup, even with J.D. Martinez out. However, add in some 9-mph winds blowing straight out in 80-degree weather, and it could be a tough (or short) outing for Arizona Diamondbacks starter Brandon Pfaadt.
The rookie pitcher finally picked up his first career MLB win in his last outing in what was his 13th start of the year. THE BAT is projecting just 13.9 outs from Pfaadt tonight, which makes Under 15.5 outs at even money a very +EV play in the nightcap.
Keep in mind that Arizona has all of its relievers ready to go tonight, which ultimately hurts Pfaadt’s chances of going deep. This is also the same starter that lasted just 4/2/3 innings against the Dodgers four starts ago, allowing four runs in the process.
Outside of the Braves, this is the worst offense to run into in the NL and the Arizona starter is not getting any help from the setting tonight at Dodger Stadium. Coming out for the sixth inning could be a pipe dream for Pfaadt as he goes up against a tough lineup that is backed by great hitting conditions.
My best bet: Brandon Pfaadt Under 15.5 outs (+100)
Diamondbacks vs Dodgers same-game parlay
Brandon Pfaadt Under 4.5 strikeouts
Christian Walker Over 1.5 total bases
Corbin Carroll Over 1.5 total bases
Pfaadt is not projected to do much against a Los Angeles offense that has caught fire in August. In particular, Mookie Betts is hitting .517/.561/.850 over his last 15 games.
On the other side, Arizona doesn't have a bad offensive matchup tonight and Christian Walker and Corbin Carroll project well at the plate for a game that should be high-scoring. Both Carroll and Walker are projecting for Over 2.0 total bases tonight vs. Ryan Pepiot and the Dodgers bullpen.
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Diamondbacks vs Dodgers moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Dodgers have won seven of their last 12 vs. the Diamondbacks and opened as a -155 favorite before being bet to -175. The win last night pushed their August record to an impressive 23-4 SU, which is two wins shy of the franchise’s best win total in any month.
Mookie Betts launched his career-best 36th homer last night and the Dodgers won their 14th home game in 15 tries. The only thing keeping the Dodgers’ moneyline down is Ryan Pepiot making the start.
Pepiot threw 76 pitches five days ago in a relief appearance and was solid allowing just three hits, one run, and striking out six. He has every arm available in the pen, so manager Dave Roberts will have no issues going to his middle relievers in the fifth or sixth inning. Pepiot owns a 1.17 WHIP at Triple-A this year over limited innings and has always been better than a K/inning pitcher over his career.
However, considering Pfaadt picked up his first MLB win in his 13th MLB start, there isn’t a starting pitching advantage for Arizona tonight. The Diamondbacks entered this series as winners of 10 of their last 12 games, but the fact remains that the Dodgers are on a different planet right now and are winning at a rate that is unheard of in baseball.
The total opened at 10 with plenty of books falling to 9.5 as of this morning, which is a little surprising considering the favorable hitting conditions at Chavez Ravine tonight. The Dodgers are the No. 1 Over team in baseball with a 76-49 O/U record on the year, and I'm expecting another high-scoring affair on Wednesday.
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Trend to know
Los Angeles has hit the Over in 66 of its last 111 games (+21.75 Units / 18% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers
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Diamondbacks vs Dodgers game info
| Location: | Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date: | Wednesday, August 30, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 10:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports Arizona, SportsNet LA |
Starting pitchers
Brandon Plaaft (1-6, 5.91 ERA): Pfaadt is making his 14th start of his rookie season and enters with a 60:20 K:BB rate over 67 innings with 15 homers allowed. He picked up his first win of his career in his last outing and Arizona is 6-7 SU when he starts. THE BAT is projecting 80 pitches, 4.06 strikeouts, and 3.33 earned runs from the right-hander tonight.
Ryan Pepiott (0-0, 2.00 ERA): Pepiot will be making his first start of the 2023 season, and last threw 76 pitches over four innings in a bulk-relief role six days ago. He carries a 53:28 K:BB rate over 45 MLB innings and THE BAT is projecting 84 pitches, 14.8 outs, 4.74 strikeouts, and 2.73 earned runs this evening.
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