The Arizona Diamondbacks survived a strong offensive onslaught from the Milwaukee Brewers to complete a clean sweep in the wild-card round, and now the test will get much tougher against the NL West champion Dodgers.
Among the World Series odds favorites, Los Angeles has had Merrill Kelly’s number all season long. Will that continue here in our latest MLB picks?
Let’s break down the MLB odds as we dissect Game 1 of Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers in our MLB playoff predictions.
Diamondbacks vs Dodgers odds
Diamondbacks vs Dodgers Game 1 odds
Diamondbacks vs Dodgers series odds
Diamondbacks
DodgersDiamondbacks vs Dodgers predictions
Clayton Kershaw began his 16th career season as a member of the Los Angeles Dodgers with two consecutive starts versus the Arizona Diamondbacks. He struggled a bit in Arizona, but at home, he spun six innings of one-run ball with nine strikeouts. In L.A. this season, the left-hander owns a tidy 1.58 ERA in 57 innings, and there’s no reason to expect anything is going to change on Saturday.
Kershaw’s expected batting average in his three starts against the Diamondbacks has been favorable, and he still managed a beefy 26.2% strikeout rate across all of his starts this season. In stark contrast, the Dodgers are hitting .340 off of Merrill Kelly in four meetings, with an expected batting average that would indicate none of the hits he surrendered were cheap.
While Kelly finished with a 3.98 ERA against the Dodgers this year, he was lucky not to post an ERA over eight runs against his NL West foe for a second straight season. L.A. failed to hit a home run off of the veteran despite its second-place finish in Isolated Power, and the chances of Kelly making it out of this one unscathed are slim to none.
Arizona just allowed the Brewers to hit .302 in the two games that those two sides played, which is abysmal considering Milwaukee owns one of the worst lineups in the league. I have no faith in the Snakes pitchers here, whether it be Kelly or a third-inning fireman.
Kershaw should continue to shove at home and will have plenty of run support.
My best bet: Dodgers first five innings -0.5 (-130 at DraftKings)
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Diamondbacks vs Dodgers same-game parlay
Dodgers moneyline (-185)
Max Muncy to record a hit (-150)
Merrill Kelly 2+ walks allowed (-185)
For my SGP, I'm opting for the safer route and starting off with taking the Dodgers on moneyline. In this game, they possess a considerable offensive advantage and a significant bullpen edge.
Following up on our previous notes, I expect Kelly to walk multiple guys tonight. The Dodgers are one of, if not the most patient team in all of baseball. Kelly’s walk rate is just a hair under 10% and he walked 13 Dodgers in 20 1/3 innings this season. This is a solid leg.
Finally, Max Muncy is the hitter I want to target most. Not only is the left-handed slugger hitting .421 in his career against Kelly but he’s also run contrary to his career-long numbers by hitting better against righties than lefties this season.
Muncy also fares better against ground ball pitchers than fly ball pitchers, and Kelly classifies as the former.
We need to take advantage of this value.
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Diamondbacks vs Dodgers moneyline and Over/Under analysis
I don’t know, man. Do you really want to get cute and bet on the total here?
While Kershaw has been nails for the last couple of seasons, he’s historically had a tough time in the playoffs. In theory, he should make it through six scoreless, but with the added pressure here, the veteran southpaw might fold just a bit.
That could put the Under in question when you consider the inherent possibility of Kelly surrendering four or more runs. On the other hand, if Kershaw does pitch as expected and hands it off to the second-best bullpen in baseball, Arizona may not score enough to get us to the Over.
At DraftKings, 63% of the bets wagered on the total have come in on the Over while it’s commanded 80% of the handle. In terms of moneyline bets, 80% are on the Dodgers, who have accounted for 73% of the handle.
Trend to know
The Diamondbacks have only hit the F5 moneyline in 36 of their last 100 games (-11.43 Units / -9% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers
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Diamondbacks vs Dodgers game info
| Location: | Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date: | Saturday, October 7, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 9:20 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TBS |
Starting pitchers
Merrill Kelly (12-8, 3.29 ERA): The Diamondbacks’ front-end starter finished the season with an impressive 3.22 ERA in six September starts, striking out 40 in 36 1/3 innings. However, the right-hander allowed 17 walks in those frames and has walked at least two in four straight.
Clayton Kershaw (13-5, 2.46 ERA): The graying lefty was used sparingly during the regular season as the Dodgers practiced some load management with their ace. He’s had an ERA of 2.33 or better in four of the five months he’s worked, finishing the season with just two runs against him in his final three starts, spanning 14 1/3 innings.
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