The Baltimore Orioles and Arizona Diamondbacks begin a three-game set at Camden Yards tonight.
My Diamondbacks vs. Orioles predictions for this interleague showdown focus on a player prop for Arizona starter Brandon Pfaadt, who continues to showcase fantastic control. Here are my best free MLB picks for Friday, May 10.
Diamondbacks vs Orioles prediction
My best bet
Brandon Pfaadt Under 1.5 walks (-150 at bet365)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
Brandon Pfaadt had a rough rookie campaign for the Arizona Diamondbacks last year, and while he has shown improvement as a sophomore, he still owns a middling 4.61 ERA with an OBA of .264 through seven starts.
That said, one thing Pfaadt does consistently well is throw with good control, ranking in the Top 5 percentile of the majors in walk rate (3.4%). Going back to last season, Pfaadt has gone below 1.5 walks in 12 of his previous 16 starts. He also hasn't issued a single free pass in three of his last four outings.
The Baltimore Orioles have a lineup filled with plenty of sluggers, but one thing they lack is plate discipline. The Orioles are 26th in the majors in chase rate while ranking just 29th in walk rate (6.7%). They've also struggled to make contact against righties like Pfaadt, batting just .232.
Diamondbacks vs Orioles same-game parlay (SGP)
Brandon Pfaadt Under 1.5 walks
Corbin Carroll Under 1.5 total bases
Gunnar Henderson Over 1.5 total bases
While Corbin Carroll put together a terrific rookie season in 2023, he faded down the stretch with his slugging percentage dipping to .440 in the final 60 games of the regular season. Those struggles have continued into this year, with Carroll slashing just .206/.300/.279.
While many of Arizona's hitters have excelled against southpaws like tonight's starter Cole Irvin, the left-handed Carroll doesn't have the platoon advantage in this matchup and has slugged just .382 against LHP in his career.
While Carroll is going through a sophomore slump, Baltimore's sophomore star Gunnar Henderson has gotten off to a terrific start. Henderson is second in the majors in home runs (11) and sixth in total bases with 81, and he'll have the platoon advantage against Pfaadt tonight.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Diamondbacks vs Orioles odds
Diamondbacks vs Orioles live odds
Diamondbacks vs Orioles opening odds
- Run line: Arizona +1.5 (-175) | Baltimore -1.5 (+145)
- Moneyline: Arizona +125 | Baltimore -150
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-105) | Under 8.5 (-115)
Diamondbacks vs Orioles spread and Over/Under analysis
- Money has come in on the visitors and the Under, with Baltimore's ML price slimming from -150 to -130 and the total ticking down from 8.5 to 8.
- The Diamondbacks have won four in a row but the Orioles are 7-2 in their last nine and are fresh off a rest day.
- Irvin sported a 6.75 ERA with a .328 OBA through his first three starts of the year but has since allowed just 10 hits across 20 innings of shutout ball.
- The D-Backs lead the majors in batting average (.313) and OPS (.866) against left-handed pitching.
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Diamondbacks vs Orioles trend
The Under is 8-3-1 in Baltimore's last 12 games. Find more MLB betting trends for Diamondbacks vs. Orioles
Diamondbacks vs Orioles game info
| Location: | Camden Yards, Baltimore, MD |
| Date: | Friday, 5-10-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Apple TV+ |
| Diamondbacks starting pitcher: | Brandon Pfaadt (1-2, 4.61 ERA) |
| Orioles starting pitcher: | Cole Irvin (3-1, 2.86 ERA) |
Diamondbacks vs Orioles latest injuries
Diamondbacks vs Orioles weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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