The No. 4 seeded Tennessee Volunteers face the No. 1 seed Auburn Tigers in the SEC Tournament semifinals on Saturday afternoon.
This will be a battle between an elite offense and a dominant defense and my Tennessee vs. Auburn predictions are siding with a Volunteers squad that can shut down anybody.
Here are my best free college basketball picks for this conference tournament clash on March 15, with tipoff at 1 p.m. ET.
Who will win Tennessee vs Auburn?
The Auburn Tigers are the No. 2 team in the country according to both the KenPom and NET ratings. However, the Tennessee Volunteers are just a few spots behind them at No. 5.
This should be a close battle but Auburn has the better shot-makers and the best player on the floor in Wooden Award candidate Johni Broome. It's also tough to go against a squad that has an incredible 15-4 record against Quad 1 opponents.
I'm not confident in backing the Tigers on the spread but they should be able to grind out a victory.
Tennessee vs Auburn prediction
My best bet: Tennessee +4.5 (-110 at bet365)
The Tigers have the second-best offense in the country per KenPom. But Tennessee has the top-rated defense and was able to shut them down when these teams previously clashed at Neville Arena in January.
The Volunteers held them to 53 points on 31% shooting from the field and 3-20 from deep. Auburn still grinded out a 53-51 win but it proved that the Vols could slow their attack down.
Poor backcourt play has sent Auburn packing early in the NCAA Tournament in each of the last few years. It looked like they had fixed those issues this season with the Tigers fourth in the country in turnover rate and 31st in 3-point percentage (37.2%).
However, those issues cropped up again yesterday against Ole Miss with Auburn turning the ball over 14 times and shooting 6-21 from deep. The Tigers held on for a 62-57 win but it was a shaky performance and they didn't come close to covering as 13-point favorites.
The Vols looked better in their quarterfinal game pulling away in the second half to beat Texas 83-72. Auburn has a terrific inside-outside game but the Vols are 18th in the country in opponent 2-point percentage (46.1%) and second in opponent 3-point percentage (27.7%).
On the other side of the floor, the Tigers have a solid defense but have regressed lately. Since the start of February, the Tigers are sixth in the SEC in adjusted defense and have allowed too many second chances on the boards while sitting near the bottom of the conference in opponent free throw rate.
The Vols are streaky with their shooting but they have an experienced backcourt, good ball movement, and space the floor well. They'll be able to score enough to get the cover.
Tennessee vs Auburn same-game parlay (SGP)
Tennessee +4.5
Over 138.5
The previous meeting between these teams finished with just 104 points but ShotQualityBets projected 149 points based on the quality of shots taken and allowed.
Both of these teams have regressed a bit on defense lately leading to the Over cashing in 10 of Auburn's last 13 games and five of Tennessee's previous seven contests.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Tennessee vs Auburn odds
Tennessee vs Auburn live odds
Tennessee vs Auburn opening odds
- Spread: Tennessee +3.5 | Auburn -3.5
- Moneyline: Tennessee +150 | Auburn -180
- Over/Under: Over 138.5 | Under 138.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Tennessee vs Auburn betting trend to know
The Tigers are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Tennessee vs. Auburn.
How to watch Tennessee vs Auburn
| Location | Bridgestone Arena, Nashville, TN |
| Date | Saturday, 3-15-2025 |
| Tip-off | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Tennessee vs Auburn key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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