The Philadelphia Phillies enter this weekend’s three-game set with the Arizona Diamondbacks fresh off a sweep of the Milwaukee Brewers and riding a seven-game winning streak.
Since firing Joe Girardi, the Phillies are 6-0 straight up, averaging 7.8 runs per game, and with a win, could get their record back to .500. It won’t be easy, as the Diamondbacks will send out right-hander Zac Gallen who owns a 2.40 ERA — Arizona is 7-2 SU over his 10 starts. The home side will counter with Kyle Gibson.
Can the Phillies push the win streak to eight games despite digging in heavily to the bullpen yesterday, or can Arizona ride the momentum from yesterday’s ninth-inning comeback win? Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for Phillies vs. Diamondbacks on Friday, June 10.
Diamondbacks vs Phillies odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The home side Phillies opened as -130 moneyline favorites and have since moved to -140 as of Friday morning (-1.5 +145). The total opened at 8 and moved to 8.5 quickly. This is the first meeting of the two clubs this season.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Diamondbacks vs Phillies predictions
- Prediction: Phillies ML (-135)
- Prediction: Under 8.5 (-102)
- Best bet: Highest-scoring inning - Phillies (+110)
Picks made on 6/10/2022 at 10:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Diamondbacks vs Phillies game info
• Location: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA
• Date: Friday, June 10, 2022
• First pitch: 7:05 p.m. ET
• TV: Bally Sports Arizona, NBC 10
Diamondbacks vs Phillies betting preview
Starting pitchers
Zac Gallen (4-1, 2.40 ERA): Gallen has impressed many this season with a sparkling 2.40 ERA and a sub-1.00 WHIP. He's currently the No. 9 choice in NL Cy Young odds (+2,000). The Diamondbacks are 7-3 SU when he starts as he's allowed two or fewer runs in nine of his 10 starts this season.
Gallen pumps a 94 mph fastball on nearly 50% of his pitches, but his elite spin rate helps induce weak contact as opponents are hitting just .167 off it.
Kyle Gibson (3-2, 4.40 ERA): Gibson has been a reliable starter for the Phillies this season but is coming off a start where the Angels tagged him for five runs over three-plus innings. The Phillies are 1-3 SU in his last four starts with that one win an improbable come-from-behind victory.
Gibson is a sinker/slider/cutter pitcher who sits in the 80s more than he sits in the 90s.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Diamondbacks: Christian Walker 1B (Questionable), Nick Ahmed SS (Out).
Phillies: Johan Camargo 3B (Out), Jean Segura 2B (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Phillies are 7-0 SU in their last seven games. Find more MLB betting trends for Diamondbacks vs. Phillies
Diamondbacks vs Phillies picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
The Phillies have a chance to climb back to .500 with a win tonight at home, which would be the team’s seventh in a row since relieving Joe Girardi from his bench boss duties. The offense looks healthy and is locked in, as it's scoring 7.8 runs per game under interim coach Rob Thomson. Only Jean Segura is missing and the big sticks are all locked and loaded.
Bryce Harper hit his 15th homer last night and currently sits as the No. 4 betting favorite in NL MVP odds. He’s being supported by lead-off hitter Kyle Schwarber, who is slashing .357/.455/.893 over the last seven games, Didi Gregarious is back and is 5-for-13 since returning to the lineup with three extra-base hits, while JT Realmuto and Nick Castellanos are due to get hot real soon.
The offense isn’t the issue here, as only four teams are scoring more runs per game than the Phillies — but can Philadelphia keep the Diamondbacks off the scoreboard tonight with Kyle Gibson starting and a tired bullpen to lean on?
The Diamondbacks’ offense looked awful for eight innings yesterday before erupting for four runs in the ninth in a 5-4 win over the Reds. Arizona sits 25th in runs per game on the season and 27th in wRC+, which is one of the best metrics for run production. They could also be without their clean-up hitter, Christian Walker, who left the last game with a head injury.
Scary play. Christian Walker gets hit in the helmet by a 97MPH fastball. pic.twitter.com/gVhvjR4onx
— Bally Sports Arizona (@BALLYSPORTSAZ) June 9, 2022
Scary indeed, and Walker's absence would be a big blow to this Arizona offense that’s hitting just .215 over the last two weeks.
Arizona has the advantage on the mound with Gallen and his solid numbers out of the gate, but this Philly lineup could certainly chip away and unload on the Arizona bullpen like they did yesterday in Milwaukee. Arizona has the league’s worst bullpen, per Fangraphs, and sports the fourth-worst ERA in baseball. Set-up man Ian Kennedy has pitched back-to-back days and he could be unavailable today.
If this game is settled in the later innings, the Philadelphia bats have a big advantage. The Philly bullpen is a wild ride and was used heavily yesterday, but Brad Hand and Corey Knebel are fresh and ready for today.
We’re liking interim manager Rob Thomson to collect his seventh straight win today and the Phillies to get back to .500.
Prediction: Phillies ML (-135 at BetMGM)
Over/Under analysis
Tonight’s matchup will pit the best Over team in baseball with the Phillies (33-22-2 O/U) against the fourth-best Under team in Arizona (24-34-1 O/U). Arizona comes into tonight 3-7 O/U while the home side has hit the Over in eight of its last 10 games. The total opened at 8 and has already hit 8.5.
The Phillies’ offense has been booming but Gallen has been lights out all season. He’s had just one bad start out of 10 and opponents just aren’t hitting him hard. Batters are hitting under .200 vs. Gallen and if he can control his walks (15 in 52-plus innings) the bases might not be too crowded Friday night.
Gibson has had an up-and-down season and is coming off a brutal start, but he’s been serviceable for the Phillies this year and today’s matchup is against one of the league’s worst offenses. He should get his 18 outs and hopefully a quality start.
Gibson has an edge pitching at home. At Citizens Bank Park this season, the veteran right-hander owns a .230 batting average against with a 31/5 K/BB ratio compared to a .289 AVG with a 21/12 K/BB ratio on the road. Those splits should help suppress runs versus an Arizona lineup that could be without its best hitter in Christian Walker.
Both bullpens can implode on any given day but each team’s closers are ready to roll, and the Arizona pen looked good yesterday afternoon in a tough ballpark in Cincinnati. We might prefer a F5 Under 4.5 here, and with it paying -120 to the Under, the books are also agreeing with us that early runs will be more difficult.
If we can get some consistency in tonight’s relief pitching, we’d be thrilled with an Under 8.5 ticket. But this is more of a lean than a play for us.
This total is still ticking upwards towards the Over so if you’re thinking of getting on the Under, later might be better.
Prediction: Under 8.5 (-102 at FanDuel)
Best bet
Hitting is contagious and the Phillies are riding high of late. Changing bench bosses has ignited a fire and this underperforming lineup is doing some serious damage of late, and that's with Castellanos still struggling.
This team's averaging almost eight runs per game since outing Girardi and now it’ll have a few innings to tee off on the league’s worst bullpen. Gallen has been elite to date but he has recorded 18 outs just once in his last four starts and could be due for some regression. He’s also gone more than six innings just twice in 10 starts. That means these Philly bats will get to see plenty of the Arizona bullpen. Even Arizona closer Mark Melancon is on the hot seat and has pitched in back-to-back innings.
The Phillies have had the highest-scoring inning in five of their last six games, and with a lineup as deep as any in baseball, this order doesn’t have to turn over to put up a crooked number.
The Arizona offense is also one to fade and is the main reason why the Diamondbacks are one of the league’s best Under teams.
It might not be a widely available market, but bet365 has the Phillies to have the highest-scoring inning at +110. It’s a three-way market which means a tie is a loss, but we think the home side can do enough damage in the later innings to cash this derivative market.
DraftKings has the same bet (2-way market) but PHI at -135 and FanDuel has the 3-way market at +110 as well.
Pick: Team with the highest-scoring inning — Phillies (+110 at bet365)
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