The Freeway Series between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Los Angeles Angels features an absurd amount of star power, but none of those stars shine as bright as Shohei Ohtani.
The Angels' two-way phenom takes center stage on Wednesday night when he takes the mound in hopes of evening up the series with their cross-town rival.
Ohtani has been making headlines for being a monster at the plate in the month of June, but his performance on the mound hasn’t been too far behind. Does that mean he is being undervalued against a stacked Dodgers lineup?
I break down the MLB odds and bring you my best bet plus a same-game parlay in my MLB picks and predictions for Dodgers vs. Angels below.
Dodgers vs Angels odds
Dodgers vs Angels predictions
Clayton Kershaw battled Reid Detmers put on one hell of a pitcher’s duel in yesterday’s series opener, as both threw seven innings of shutout ball before the Los Angeles Dodgers struck late to earn a 2-0 victory.
I’m not so sure tonight’s pitching matchup will be as close.
What makes Shohei Ohtani impressive isn’t that he both hits and pitches, it’s that he does both at an elite level. Obviously, the MLB home run leader will try to help his own cause tonight, but let’s focus on his pitching for now.
The right-hander has an electric fastball that averages 97.2 miles per hour and mixes that with a devastating sweeper. That combination makes him one of the hardest pitchers in baseball to square up, and that often means strikeouts and bad contact.
Ohtani is pitching to a 3.34 expected ERA, is limiting opponents to a .194 expected batting average, and has a strikeout rate of 31.7%. The xBA and the K-rate both rank in the Top 10% of MLB.
Now, the Dodgers boast one of the better lineups in baseball but it’s nothing that Shohei can’t handle. He's coming off a strong performance against arguably the best lineup in baseball in the Rangers. He held them to two runs on six hits over six innings last time out and should be able to rack up the punchouts with the Dodgers having a K-rate of 22.7%
Meanwhile, Dodgers starter Michael Grove may not have the same success. Grove is a rookie right-hander who has been thrust into the Dodgers rotation thanks to a rash of injuries and is making his eighth appearance (seventh start) of the season.
Grove relies mostly on a fastball-slider combo and the early returns have been a little rough. He's pitching to a 5.31 expected ERA and is surrendering a .270 expected batting average and .505 expected slugging percentage to opponents this season. All are in the 21st percentile or worse and he gets a tough matchup tonight.
Outside of Ohtani and his 24 bombs, the Los Angeles Angels rank 10th in batting average, seventh in OPS, and fourth in wRC+ when facing right-handed pitchers this season.
Now, the Dodgers have the better bullpen so I'm honing in on the first half of the game, where I’m betting Shohei gets his team out to an early lead.
My best bet: Angels first-five -0.5 (-122 at FanDuel)
Dodgers vs Angels same-game parlay
Angels first-five result (-122)
Brandon Drury 2+ total bases (-105)
Shohei Ohtani to record an RBI (+125)
Let’s start this same-game parlay off with our best bet and backing Ohtani and the Angles to get off to a good start and take them to win the first five.
Now, obviously, Ohtani has been the guy getting all the headlines with his bat, but he’s not the only Halos player that’s been relied on at the plate lately.
Brandon Drury is on a six-game hitting streak and has recorded a multi-hit game five times. He’s hitting .440 with a 1.202 OPS over that stretch and gets a juicy matchup against Grove, who ranks in the Bottom 8% in slugging percentage.
You knew we had to end with another Shohei prop. He's been the epitome of a run producer of late and has driven in a run in seven of his last 11 games overall for a total of 16 RBI over that stretch. I’m betting he’ll have more opportunities to drive in more runs in this matchup against Grove.
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Dodgers vs Angels moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Angels opened this interleague matchup as roughly -145 favorites and Shohei got some early support, moving the line as high as -160 before some Dodgers buyback brought it back down toward the opening number.
As I broke down above, I think the Angels are being undervalued in this spot due to a massive edge in starting pitching, and while I prefer them on the five-inning run line, there's definitely still some value on the full-game moneyline if you can them in the -145 range.
When it comes to the total, it hit the board at 8.5 and has bumped up to 9 as of Wednesday afternoon but the new number might be a touch high.
I know I’ve been talking up Ohtani a ton, but why not? He's limited opponents to three earned runs or fewer in 10 of his 14 starts and pitches nearly six innings per start.
And while Grove clearly isn’t on the same level, he's at least supported by an excellent bullpen. The Dodgers relievers rank 10th in xFIP and 11th in strikeouts per nine innings.
It may not be like yesterday’s 2-0 game but I think the number is now high enough to lean toward the Under.
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Trend to know
The Dodgers haven't won back-to-back games since the end of May. Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs. Angels
Dodgers vs Angels game info
Location: | Angel Stadium, Anaheim, CA |
Date: | Wednesday, June 21, 2023 |
First pitch: | 9:38 p.m. ET |
TV: | MLB Network |
Starting pitchers
Micahel Grove (0-2, 8.10 ERA): Grove has been roughed up this season and is particularly going through a rough patch at the moment. He's allowed at least four hits and four earned runs in each of his last four starts.
Shohei Ohtani (6-2, 3.29 ERA): What more can be said about Ohtani at this point? He's striking out 11.5 batters per nine innings and his 5.6 hits allowed per nine is the best mark in the majors.