After enduring a tough start out of Landon Knack, the Los Angeles Dodgers will look to turn things around and level this big series with the Atlanta Braves on Saturday.
The Braves will run Chris Sale out to the mound again here amidst what’s been a Cy Young-caliber season at the age of 35. The Dodgers counter with the talented Jack Flaherty, who’s continued to turn his career around in Los Angeles.
Find out why I believe the Dodgers can solve Sale in my Dodgers vs. Braves predictions and MLB picks for Saturday, September 14.
Dodgers vs Braves prediction
My best bet
Dodgers moneyline (+115 at BetMGM)
My analysis
Both Chris Sale and Jack Flaherty have been exquisite this year, and while Sale’s clearly been the better of the two arms, Flaherty has re-written the story of his career after figuring something out in Detroit earlier this season.
They’ve each pitched effectively to contact, with Sale relying a bit more on ground balls, but the big story for both has been strikeouts. With both hurlers sitting north of 30%, they’re firmly in elite territory.
There may be a little bit of a window in here for the Los Angeles Dodgers, however, considering Sale had begun to hiccup just a bit in August with an influx of hits and a couple of low strikeout totals before he recovered this month against the lowly Colorado Rockies and Toronto Blue Jays.
His xBA was up to .253 last month as hitters registered a hit in 28.1% of at-bats, and while that’s trended back down in September, his xSLG is up to a concerning .393.
The Dodgers have been smoking the ball of late, posting a .199 ISO in the last two weeks with a stellar .271 average. While they haven’t walked at the rate we’re used to seeing, they’ve continued to limit strikeouts and have seemed to grow stronger as they’ve swung the bat more.
The Atlanta Braves, meanwhile, have struggled to recover offensively after several huge injuries and rank 26th in wRC+ for the last 14 days with Friday’s offensive outburst only bringing them up one spot in the rankings.
The Braves’ biggest issue has been a power outage, carrying a .101 ISO in that time, and they’re hitting just .222 as several big bats in the heart of the order search for answers.
Flaherty’s only real issues in a Dodger uniform have come in the form of walks, and this isn’t a team which is exhibiting much patience at the plate. He should get the better of this pitcher’s duel, and while the Under is certainly in play here, the bigger edge is on the Dodgers.
Shohei Ohtani pick: Ohtani kept off base
My best bet
Shohei Ohtani Under 1.5 H+R+RBI (-125 at DraftKings)
My analysis
Shohei Ohtani has only faced Sale three times in his career, recording a seemingly-fortunate double considering his .101 xBA along with a strikeout. He’s managed to hit .271 off lefties, but that pales in comparison to his .301 average versus righties. There’s also a massive 235-point dropoff in SLG in the platoon split.
That makes this a tough call, considering the line on Ohtani’s strikeouts is up to 1.5 and he’s only punched out multiple times once in the last eight games around a tough stretch which has seen him hit .250.
We also can’t take the Under on Ohtani’s total bases here, juiced close to -200, so I’m going to opt for the Hits+ Runs + RBI market as this one shouldn’t feature many runs and Ohtani shouldn’t be on base much with his struggles against Sale and lefties as a whole.
Dodgers vs Braves same-game parlay (SGP)
Dodgers moneyline
Shohei Ohtani Under 1.5 total bases
Jack Flaherty 6+ strikeouts
This is another exhibit in same-game parlay weirdness, as we’ll get a nice boost for taking the Under on Ohtani but will be afforded better odds on this Flaherty strikeout prop as opposed to the Under on his earned runs, which is much more reasonably priced.
I like Flaherty to rack up six punchouts for a third straight game and the eighth time in 10 games. Atlanta’s had a massive strikeout issue in the second half, and while it’s brought its punchout rate down just under 22% in the last two weeks, it’s still a tough number to look at when you’re hoping for contact.
On top of that, the Braves’ inability to take walks should mean more swings and a better chance for Flaherty as he nibbles around the zone searching for strikeouts.
The right-hander still sits in the Top 10% of all pitchers in whiff rate, and Atlanta is eighth-worst in swinging strike rate over the last 14 days.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Dodgers vs Braves odds
Dodgers vs Braves live odds
Dodgers vs Braves opening odds
- Moneyline: Los Angeles +113 | Atlanta -122
- Run line: Los Angeles +1.5 (-205) | Atlanta -1.5 (+170)
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-110) | Under 7.5 (-110)
Dodgers vs Braves moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- The Braves opened as -116 favorites here on the moneyline, and have settled back in around -125 after being pushed out as far as -130.
- While 53% of the moneyline bets at DraftKings are on L.A., 68% of the tickets are on the underdogs.
- The total remains at the opening line of 7.5 runs after a brief trip to 8, and there’s been some continued action towards the Under.
- The Over has commanded 48% of the tickets but just 26% of the handle.
Dodgers vs Braves trend
Flaherty has hit at least six strikeouts in five of seven starts with the Dodgers. Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs. Braves.
Dodgers vs Braves game info
| Location: | Truist Park, Cumberland, GA |
| Date: | Saturday, 9-14-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:20 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SNLA, BSSE |
| Dodgers starting pitcher: | Jack Flaherty (12-6, 2.86 ERA) |
| Braves starting pitcher: | Chris Sale (16-3, 2.38 ERA) |
Dodgers vs Braves latest injuries
Dodgers vs Braves weather
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