You could say the Los Angeles Dodgers are in a bit of an early-season slump, having lost seven of their last 10 games. And what has that gotten the defending World Series champs?
Oh, just tied for the best record in baseball with the league’s best run differential. Life is good when you’re the Dodgers. After avoiding a sweep with a win yesterday, they’ll look to make it two in a row when they open their series against the Milwaukee Brewers with Trevor Bauer on the mound.
Check out our MLB free picks and predictions for Dodgers vs. Brewers on Thursday, April 29, with first pitch scheduled for 7:40 p.m. ET.
Dodgers vs Brewers odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
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MLB sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonLos Angeles went up as -194 chalk Wednesday night at FanDuel, peaked at -220 midafternoon today and is -198 at 5 p.m. ET. It's practically all Dodgers action on the moneyline, at 92 percent of tickets and 96 percent of cash. The runline numbers are in that range, too, with 87 percent of tickets/91 percent of money on L.A. -1.5. The total rose from 7.5 to 8 this afternoon, but action is much more balanced, with the Over taking 54 percent of tickets and money.
Check out the full line movement for this gameDodgers vs Brewers betting preview
Starting pitchers
Trevor Bauer (3-0, 2.53 ERA): Bauer has carried his Cy Young form over into his first season with the Dodgers. Bauer took a no-hitter into the seventh inning in his Dodgers debut (before allowing four runs) and has continued to look close to unhittable since then. He has pitched to a 2.53 ERA, 0.67 WHIP, and has racked up 45 strikeouts in 32 innings pitched this season.
Eric Lauer (0-0, 0:00 ERA): Lauer makes his 2021 debut after a disappointing first season with the Brewers. The left-hander was limited to just two starts and two relief appearances due to injury and ended up allowing 16 earned runs in just 11 innings pitched. But Lauer has had success against the Dodgers in his time with the Padres.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Dodgers: Joe Kelly RP (Out), Cody Bellinger CF (Out), David Price RP (Out), Corey Knebel RP (Out).
Brewers: Christian Yelich LF (Out), Lorenzo Cain CF (Out), Bobby Wahl RP (Out), Justin Topa RP (Out), Josh Lindblom RP (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 6-0 in the Dodgers’ last six games overall and 4-0-1 in the Brewers’ last five home games. Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs. Brewers.
Runline pick
Yeah, the Dodgers are in a bit of a slump, but it’s a little understandable after their intense series with the Padres — a letdown was inevitable. That said, they shutout the Cincinnati Reds 8-0 last night and now hand the ball to the defending National League Cy Young award winner for the opener tonight.
Bauer has been dealing over his last four starts. The right-hander has pitched to a 1.75 ERA, a 0.62 WHIP, and is limiting opponents to a .136 batting average. Not to mention his ridiculous strikeout to walk ratio.
He goes up against a Brewers lineup that is still missing Christian Yelich and strikes out a ton, 10.5 times per game to be precise. That’s the second-highest rate in baseball. Bauer also made three starts against the Brewers last season as a member of the Reds, pitching to a 2.66 ERA, a 0.89 WHIP, and had 14.9 strikeouts per nine innings.
On the other side, Lauer actually has stifled the Dodgers during his career, pitching to a 2.11 ERA in seven starts against them. That said, he’s never faced the Mookie Betts version of L.A. and, unlike the Brewers, the Dodgers can still thrive without one star out of the lineup.
This is a tough spot to make your season debut. And after Lauer, the Brewers will feature a bullpen that has struggled outside of Josh Hader. If you like the Dodgers to win, take them on the runline.
PREDICTION: Dodgers -1.5 (-115)
Over/Under pick
The Dodgers have gone Over the total in six straight games, but the interesting part about that is that they haven’t seen a total higher than 7.5. And what is today’s total? You guessed it: 7.5.
The Dodgers obviously are getting these low totals thanks to their fantastic starting rotation. But as good as they are, they are still capable of giving up a run or two no matter the opponent. Plus, the bullpen has underperformed to this point, ranking 28th in WHIP and 27th in opponent batting average.
Then the Dodgers’ offense is capable of doing most of the work. They currently rank eighth in scoring, plating 4.93 runs per game and that number has bounced up to 5.6 over the last five games. They're also third in team OPS. This Over run that they're on should continue while the Dodgers keep getting these low numbers.
PREDICTION: Over 7.5 (-110)
Dodgers vs Brewers betting card
- Dodgers -1.5 (-115)
- Over 7.5 (-110)
Picks made on 4/29/2021 at 1:35p.m. ET
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