The MLB odds board has a quartet of early afternoon games on Wednesday, including a clash between the Los Angeles Dodgers and Milwaukee Brewers. This is the final contest in a three-game set at American Family Field and each team has won a game.
The Dodgers are -165 road favorites for the grudge match and with a pair of strong starters on the mound, the Over/Under is installed at 8. Here are my best free Dodgers vs. Brewers MLB picks and predictions for May 10.
Dodgers vs Brewers odds
Dodgers vs Brewers predictions
Los Angeles Dodgers outfielder Mookie Betts hit a double during the first game of this series before jacking a solo home run last night.
Perhaps the six-time All-Star is benefitting from the peace of mind of not staying in a haunted hotel but he also has a history of excelling at American Family Field, slashing 302/.434/.744 through 11 career games.
Betts has been hitting the ball well lately going 11-35 at the dish with three dingers and three doubles over the last 10 days. He has a .588 slugging percentage against southpaws this year and while that's in a relatively small sample size, he also slugged .609 in 156 at-bats against them last season.
That bodes well for Betts' odds of hitting well today with the Brewers sending out lefty Wade Miley. Betts has a history of torching Miley as well, going 9-16 with a home run and four doubles against Milwaukee's starter.
My best bet: Mookie Betts Over 1.5 total bases (+100)
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Dodgers vs Brewers moneyline analysis
Games starting at 1:40 ET can be tough on West Coast-based teams but at least the Dodgers have had a few days to adjust by now.
In the first game of this series, they lost 9-3 but bounced back to win 6-2 yesterday thanks to a bullpen that gave them eight strong innings. They've now gone 9-2 in their last 11 games while the Brewers are 2-7 in their previous nine.
Although the first two contests in this series had relatively close lines (the Dodgers were +108 on Monday and -118 on Tuesday) the Dodgers are -165 faves for the finale.
That's due in large part to future Hall of Famer Clayton Kershaw taking the hill for L.A. but the Brewers have been getting similar play from Miley. Miley's 2.31 ERA is actually slightly lower than Kershaw's 2.57, although the Dodgers starter has the better expected ERA (3.28 to 3.98).
The Dodgers clearly have the superior lineup and rank fifth in the majors in OPS (.774) while the Brewers are 18th (.706).
Dodgers vs Brewers Over/Under analysis
The Dodgers are fourth in the majors at 5.54 runs per game but there's reason to think we'll see a lower-scoring contest today.
While the Dodgers are one of the best power-hitting teams in the majors, Miley is an expert at limiting hard contact. Although the veteran doesn't make many batters miss, he ranks in the Top 20th percentile in average exit velocity and hard-hit rate.
Kershaw is in the Top 30th percentile in both those categories and does a much better job of striking out batters, racking up 10.1 punchouts per nine innings. That should mean plenty of Ks against a Milwaukee lineup that is 24th in the majors in strikeout rate while ranking just 26th in OPS (.672) over the last 30 days.
The Brewers have struggled against left-handed pitchers like Kershaw, with an MLB-worst OPS of .594 and the Dodgers haven't been any better. While Betts has been mashing against lefties, the Dodgers as a team have an ugly .197 batting average vs. southpaws.
Dodgers vs Brewers game info
| Location: | American Family Field, Milwaukee, WI |
| Date: | Wednesday, May 10, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 1:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | MLB Network |
Starting pitchers
Clayton Kershaw (5-2, 2.53 ERA): The nine-time All-Star isn't the Cy Young favorite he was in his prime but he's still an excellent starter. Kershaw is coming off a rough outing vs. the Padres (eight hits and four earned runs allowed through 4 2/3 innings) but still has a 3.67 FIP and a 0.98 WHIP through seven starts this season.
Wade Miley (3-1, 2.31 ERA): The 36-year-old posted a career-best 2.57 ERA with the Brewers in 2018 and looks to do even better this season. He's coming off a solid performance at Coors Field where he allowed three runs through six innings but didn't give up any homers. Through six starts, he has a 3.46 WHIP and his 1.06 WHIP is the lowest of his career.
Latest injuries
Trend to know
The Under is 15-5-3 in the Dodgers' last 23 road games vs. left-handed starters. Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs. Brewers
