Dodgers vs Cubs Predictions, Picks, Odds: Stroman's Quality Shines Once Again

It’s time we talk about how good Marcus Stroman has been.

The red-hot Cubs entered the weekend with four straight wins and have been momentarily stopped in their tracks by the visiting Dodgers.

Though the club did take Friday’s game 13-0, Chicago will still need a win on Sunday to salvage something of this series with a split.

Let’s break down Dodgers vs. Cubs in our MLB picks and predictions below.

Dodgers vs Cubs odds

Dodgers vs Cubs predictions

It’s been four starts, and Marcus Stroman has still given up just two runs. Though his walk rate sits at 10.8%, the veteran righty has had himself a stellar start to the season and I expect him to keep things up here at home.

Stroman’s 26.9% strikeout rate would be the best of his career to this point, and that is downright scary when mixed with some of his other numbers.

The righty has posted a 63.2% ground ball rate to this point in the season and also has his hard-hit rate down to 35.1%. So, he’s inducing soft contact and striking a ton more guys out. It’s hard to figure out a way past this guy.

As for the Los Angeles Dodgers’ offense, well, it’s pretty good. Not as good as the Chicago Cubs’, however. L.A. is fifth in wRC+ and Chicago second, and while the Dodgers have had success drawing walks, they’ve mainly relied on home runs and extra-base hits to score their runs. Stroman simply isn’t a guy who’s going to give you a lot there.

I’m backing the Cubs to win this game behind a strong pitching performance from Stroman, and I love the way the bats look at this point. Keep in mind that the Cubs are also third in wRC+ against lefties, and Clayton Kershaw has yet to look settled into this season.

My best bet: Cubs moneyline (+115 at Betway)

Dodgers vs Cubs moneyline analysis

The Dodgers have commanded 61% of all moneyline bets over at DraftKings as of this writing, but just 38% of the actual handle is on the road team. That may tell us all we need to know here, that Kershaw and the road team are in trouble.

Coming off one of the best seasons of his career, or at least his best in some time, the expectations were surely high for Kershaw. With that said, he fell short in his first three starts but rebounded with seven scoreless against the Mets.

What are we to make of this? Well, the Mets are ultimately a bad matchup against Kershaw considering they lack power and can’t hit lefties. Kershaw’s .377 xwOBA on contact and lower strikeout rate still have me the least bit worried about him, and that’s enough to take the Cubs.

Dodgers vs Cubs Over/Under analysis

I’m actually thinking about siding with the Over here. While Stroman has been stellar this season and Kershaw is coming off a dominant start, we can’t forget that both of these offenses are top five in wRC+ and therefore need to be feared with a total this low.

I do think that the Cubs have enough power to muscle one or two out against Kershaw, who has had some issues with barrels early in the season, and you already know the Dodgers are loaded with power as well, particularly against a righty.

With that, 68% of the tickets have come in on the Over while 75% of the money is on the Over. I do think this is a sneaky good spot to sell high.

Dodgers vs Cubs game info

Dodgers vs Cubs betting preview

Starting pitchers

Clayton Kershaw (3-1, 2.52 ERA): The left-hander now owns a 2.52 ERA after striking out nine Mets this week over seven scoreless frames. Still, he’s allowed three home runs to this point with diminishing strikeout numbers.

Marcus Stroman (2-1, 0.75 ERA): The right-hander is coming off a start earlier this week against the A’s in which he allowed just two hits amd two walks over six scoreless. He’s now pitched exactly six innings in each of his four starts, giving up just the two runs to Seattle last week.

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Trend to know

The Over is 7-1-1 in the last nine meetings between these teams in Chicago. Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs. Cubs

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