Dodgers vs Cubs Picks: Pitching Rules the Day

The 33-year-old southpaw is coming off a strong performance against the Reds, going seven scoreless innings, and he hasn't allowed a run in three of his last four starts.

Rohit Ponnaiya - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Rohit Ponnaiya • Betting Analyst
May 4, 2021 • 12:30 ET
Clayton Kershaw Los Angeles Dodgers MLB
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

There are a whopping 17 games on the MLB betting board May 4, including a doubleheader between the Los Angeles Dodgers and Chicago Cubs.

The Dodgers and Cubs were rained out Monday and will make up that contest with a seven-inning game this afternoon at 2:20 p.m. ET, followed by another game at night. 

We bring you our best free Dodgers vs. Cubs picks and predictions for the first game of Tuesday's doubleheader.

Dodgers vs Cubs odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

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MLB Sharp Money and Line Movement Report

By Patrick Everson

With Clayton Kershaw on the bump to open a doubleheader, Los Angeles went up as healthy -195 chalk at DraftKings, got out to -220 by noon ET and is -200 at 12:30 p.m. ET. The Dodgers are attracting 80 percent of bets and 89 percent of cash on the moneyline. The total moved from 5 (Over -124) to 5.5 (Under -129) – keep in mind doubleheaders are seven-inning games – with ticket count and money running beyond 9/1 on the Over.

Check out the full line movement for this game

Dodgers vs Cubs betting preview

Starting pitchers

Clayton Kershaw (4-2, 2.09 ERA): The future Hall of Famer is putting together another terrific season, pitching to a 2.09 ERA with a WHIP of 0.91 through 38 2-3 innings in six starts. The 33-year-old is coming off a dominating performance against the Reds, going seven scoreless innings, and he hasn't allowed a run in three of his last four starts. 

Kyle Hendricks (1-3, 7.54 ERA): Hendricks is coming off a horrendous performance against the Braves, where he allowed 11 hits and seven runs before getting the hook midway through the third inning. He was also roughed up by the Braves earlier this season but has looked good in his three other starts.

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Dodgers: Zach McKinstry 2B (Out), Cody Bellinger CF (Out), Joe Kelly RP (Out).

Cubs: Ian Happ OF (Questionable), Joc Pederson OF (Out), Rowan Wick RP (Out). 

Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Under is 18-5 in the last 23 meetings between these teams in Chicago. Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs. Cubs.

Moneyline pick

Neither of these teams has looked good recently, with the Dodgers going 4-10 in their last 14 games and the Cubs going 2-7 in their previous nine contests.

The Dodgers, however, are still the World Series betting favorites after winning the Fall Classic last year. On the other hand, the Cubs are doing pretty much exactly what everybody expected of them as they struggle in that awkward border between former contenders and full rebuild. 

Los Angeles is coming off a huge 16-4 win over the Brewers and, despite a worrying tendency to strand base runners, are fifth in the majors with 5.05 runs per game, while ranking third with a .755 OPS. The Cubbies sit just outside the Top 10 in both categories, with 4.72 runs per game and an OPS of .717. 

The Cubs' other hitting numbers paint a worse picture, as they are just 22nd in batting average (.224) and strike out more than all but three teams in the majors. That's bad news against Kershaw, who has held opponents to a batting average of .208 over his career while striking out 9.73 batters per nine innings, 12th-best all time. 

Hendricks is no slouch, either, but hasn't been quite as consistent as Kershaw, especially this year. Back the Dodgers. 

PREDICTION: Dodgers (-200)

Over/Under pick

Kershaw doesn't get quite the publicity he used to earlier in his career when he was picking up Cy Young awards on regular basis, but the 33-year-old is still one of the best in the business. The southpaw is 10-4 with a 2.13 ERA and a 0.87 WHIP in 16 regular season starts since the beginning of last season. 

While the Dodgers scored 16 runs Sunday, they did so against a pitcher making his big-league debut in Alec Bettinger. The Brewers rookie looked like a sacrificial lamb as he gave up nine runs in the first two innings. It won't be quite so easy for L.A. this afternoon as they take on a crafty veteran in Hendricks. 

Hendricks is also coming off an ugly start but has been solid against teams other than the Braves this season, allowing five runs across 15 innings in his other three starts. And he has a history of dominating at home, pitching to a 2.65 ERA with a 1.04 WHIP in 91 career games at Wrigley Field. 

The Dodgers have gone 6-2 to the Under in their last eight games on the road, while the Under is 21-8-1 in the Cubs' previous 30 contests at home. Take the Under tonight. 

PREDICTION: Under 5 (+103)

Dodgers vs. Cubs betting card

  • Dodgers (-200)
  • Under 5 (+103)

Picks made on 5/04/2021 at 9:30 a.m. ET

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Betting Analyst

With a background playing soccer, rugby, and boxing, combined with a journalism degree, it's little surprise that Rohit gravitated towards the world of sports betting. He specializes in betting on UFC and college basketball, two sports where the eyeball test can tell you a lot more about matchups than any analytics. Rohit has years of experience handicapping NFL and NBA games as well as niche betting markets such as politics and Oscar odds. He's also the resident CFL expert and formerly hosted "The Chez and Ro Show" with former CFL star Davis Sanchez.

You can catch Rohit breaking down every UFC event with Joe Osborne on "P4P Picks" on the Covers YouTube channel and he also has regular appearances on "Before You Bet" with Joe. In addition, he's a regular guest on "By The Book" on the Monumental Sports Network and makes guest appearances on VSIN's "The Handle" and CBS Sports.

Rohit primarily makes his bets at bet365, which offers a wide variety of prop markets, but also has accounts at several others so he can shop around for the best prices. For Rohit, bankroll management is key. He believes you should never bet what you can't afford to lose and maximize those few betting opportunities where books misprice a line.

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