Dodgers vs Marlins Predictions, Picks, Odds: Garrett Flustered by L.A. Order

The third and final game of this series gets underway on Thursday evening with the NL East’s Miami Marlins hosting the NL West’s Los Angeles Dodgers.

Miami pulled off back-to-back upsets in the MLB odds in the first two games and now looks to complete the sweep at loanDepot Park.

Will the Marlins take care of business once again, or can the Dodgers bring them back to Earth? Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for Dodgers vs. Marlins on Thursday, September 7.

Dodgers vs Marlins odds

Dodgers vs Marlins predictions

Left-hander Braxton Garrett takes the mound for the Miami Marlins in this contest and should be a good fade candidate. Garrett owns a respectable 3.86 ERA and 1.15 WHIP through 27 appearances this season, but his underlying metrics suggest that regression is looming.

Currently, the left-hander ranks in the 30th percentile or lower in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, and Hard-Hit%. This expected regression could come to fruition against the powerhouse Los Angeles Dodgers, a team Garrett has struggled against.

Through two career appearances against the Dodgers, he is 0-1 with a 6.00 ERA. Specifically, we’re going to utilize this expected regression and poor track record against Los Angeles to fade Garrett in the strikeout department.

You can find his strikeout prop at 3.5 at plus-money on the Under, and it's a number he has failed to surpass in four of his past five starts. Yes, that one game where he did not go Under this total was against the Dodgers, but can we expect that to occur once again?

One of the best lineups in baseball, Los Angeles ranks second in the league in runs scored per game, SLG, OPS, and home runs. Furthermore, the Dodgers are good at avoiding strikeouts, as they rank 12th in K% when facing left-handed pitching.

Looking at Thursday’s projected starting lineup, six of Los Angeles’ nine hitters possess a K% south of 20.2% this season. This avoidance of the strikeout is likely to continue against Garrett, a pitcher whom this current lineup boasts a mere 10.3 K% and 18.2 Whiff% against through 29 career plate appearances.

My best bet: Braxton Garrett Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+128 at BetRivers)

Dodgers vs Marlins same-game parlay

Braxton Garrett Under 3.5 Strikeouts

Over 8.5

Dodgers moneyline

+480 at BetRivers

We already covered the first leg in the best bet section above, now let’s look at the other two.

While the Dodgers may be able to tee off against Garrett, the Marlins could also generate some solid run production against right-hander Ryan Pepiot. Even though Pepiot boasts a tremendous 1.29 ERA and 0.71 WHIP, those strong stats are only over 14 innings of work.

Now, here’s a guy (shoutout Cris Collinsworth and football being back) who produced a 3.47 ERA and 1.46 WHIP in his rookie campaign last year, which is still good but suggests that his 14-inning sample size in 2023 is going to take a step back.

With that said, Pepiot still paces Garrett in every statistic and underlying metric across the board, and there is no denying that the Dodgers also boast the strong lineup.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Dodgers vs Marlins moneyline and Over/Under analysis

The Dodgers opened as a -132 favorite and have remained at that price at the time of writing. I do expect this number to go longer with Pepiot getting called up for the start and Los Angeles’ superior lineup, but this little win streak Miami has put together may draw some bettors on the home underdog.

That brings us to the total, which opened at 8.5 and also currently remains at that number. This market will also be intriguing to watch throughout Thursday as Pepiot has looked extremely sharp on the mound, but his results are not sustainable while the Dodgers could explode offensively against Garrett.

There have been nine or more total runs scored in each of the first two games of this series.

Trend to know

Garrett has recorded three or fewer strikeouts in four of his past five starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs. Marlins

Dodgers vs Marlins game info

Starting pitchers

Ryan Pepiot (1-0, 1.29 ERA): Following the arrest of Julio Urias, Los Angeles recalled Pepiot from Triple-A to make this start. With the troubling accusations against Urias and a likely suspension looming, Pepiot could solidify his spot in the rotation moving forward with another strong outing on Thursday. Through two career appearances against Miami, the right-hander is 1-0 with a 2.45 ERA and 0.91 WHIP.

Braxton Garrett (8-5, 3.86 ERA): The question for Garrett over this final month of the campaign is whether or not regression is going to catch up with him when Miami needs him most. His 4.59 xERA and .277 xBA certainly suggests that it will, but if he is able to stave off those poor underlying metrics, then Garrett could be a key player for the Marlins in their playoff push.

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