Dodgers vs Marlins Prediction, Picks & Odds for Tonight’s MLB Game

The Los Angeles Dodgers suffered a setback in the series opener, falling to the last place Miami Marlins by a 11-9 score. They’ll aim to get back in the win column as they try to chase down the NL-leading Phillies before time runs out.

 My Dodgers vs. Marlins predictions and MLB picks see plenty of value in backing a few L.A. players to excel.

Dodgers vs Marlins prediction

My best bet
Landon Knack Under 1.5 walks (+100 at bet35)

Best odds available in your region

My analysis
Landon Knack has done a good job of limiting free passes this season. He’s averaged just 1.3 walks per start and has gone Under his line in eight of 12 starts. Of the four games he walked multiple batters, the Nationals hold the lowest rank in walk rate vs. right-handed pitchers this season (13th). 

Put another way, each opponent Knack walked two batters against slots in the top half of BB% against righties. The Miami Marlins are not in the same stratosphere as any of the teams that enjoyed that level of success.

They've walked in just 6.2% of their at-bats against righties this season, the lowest mark in the league. Yes, even worse than the White Sox. And while the Marlins have made more noise at the plate this month, that has mostly stemmed from hitting the ball well. They sit second in batting average against righties in September.

I think that will give them confidence and have them swinging the sticks more freely, making for plenty of balls put in play and fewer opportunities to draw walks.

It’s also worth noting Knack’s ball rate over the past month is 4% lower than his season average. He is throwing a lot of strikes and I expect that to continue in this matchup.

Shohei Ohtani pick: HRR king

My best bet
Shohei Ohtani Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (-150 at DraftKings)

My analysis
Shohei Ohtani is as reliable as they come in the hits + runs + RBI market. He’s averaged 2.7 per game on the season and cleared his line at an impressive 63% clip. He enters this game in fine form, riding a three-game streak while piling up 12 HRR in aggregate.

He finds himself in a good matchup to continue his hot streak. Ryan Weathers will rejoin the Marlins rotation for his first MLB start since suffering a hand injury in early June. He made three minor league starts before getting the nod of approval from the Marlins front office, most recently completing five full innings on September 13.

He's fairly stretched out and should get a decent run in this start — especially considering the Marlins had to use five relievers just a day ago. Why is Weathers getting length so relevant? Let me tell you! He’s a left-handed pitcher and, well, Ohtani has teed off on lefties of late.

Ohtani is sporting a 22.9% barrel rate and 68.6% hard-hit rate vs. left-handed pitching over the past month. Those metrics are drastically better than the 15.9% barrel rate and 51.6% hard-hit rate he managed prior to August 18.

With Ohtani red-hot, in a favorable matchup, and hitting at the top of a loaded lineup, all the stars are aligning for another big night at the dish.

Dodgers vs Marlins same-game parlay (SGP)

Landon Knack Under 1.5 walks

Shohei Ohtani Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI

Teoscar Hernandez Over 0.5 hits

+375 at bet365

We’ve talked a lot about the favorable spots for Knack and Ohtani. The splits have also led me to backing Teoscar Hernandez.

He's one of the league’s best hitters against lefties, owning a .305 batting average and .290 ISO to date. His numbers are much, much, higher vs. lefties while Weathers has struggled with right-handed batters like Hernandez.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Dodgers vs Marlins odds

Dodgers vs Marlins live odds

Dodgers vs Marlins opening odds

• Moneyline: Los Angeles -185 | Miami +155
• Run line: Los Angeles -1.5 (-110) | Miami +1.5 (-110)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5

Dodgers vs Marlins moneyline and Over/Under analysis

• Next to no adjustments have been made on the moneyline since shops launched their openers. bet365 continues to hold at -185 while Pinnacle has moved the Dodgers from -177 to -176.
  
  
• bet365 opened with the total set at 8.5 and a -120 price on the Over. That line has moved to 9 but the -120 tag is now attached to the Under.
  
  
• The Dodgers have cashed the Over in 43 of their last 69 games for +17.90 units and a 24% ROI, an encouraging trend given we’re backing two of their top bats.
  
  
• The Dodgers have covered the run line in 15 of their last 26 games for +5.50 units and a 19% ROI.

Dodgers vs Marlins trend

Landon Knack has walked fewer than two batters in seven of his past 10 games. Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs. Marlins.

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