The Los Angeles Dodgers and Baltimore Orioles continue a three-game series this evening.
If last night's game was any indication, we're in for an excellent finish to the series. We only saw two lead changes, but the one that would ultimately give the Dodgers the win was done in dramatic fashion.
That's when Chris Taylor hit a grand slam to bring the scoreline to 6-4. In the process, the Dodgers halted an 8-game winning streak for the O's while giving themselves a two-game lead in the NL West.
Keep reading for my best bet and full MLB betting picks for Orioles vs. Dodgers below.
Dodgers vs Orioles odds
Dodgers vs Orioles predictions
Today, I want to pick on Michael Grove. He'll take the mound for the Los Angeles Dodgers, and to put it bluntly, he's not been good for them this season. The best way to pick on him in this matchup is through the prop market and I'll be targeting one of the hottest hitters on the field as a result.
That hitter is Gunnar Henderson, and the prop is RBI at the attractive price of +180 over at bet365. Gunnar has recorded an RBI in six of his last 10 games, four of his last five, and last night in his first matchup against the Dodgers.
Taking a leadoff hitter to record an RBI may be unorthodox, but we like how this sets up for Henderson.
Lineups aren't official yet, but if the O's continue their same pattern, they'll have Ramon Urias and Adam Frazier in the fold at the No. 8 and 9 spots to turn the lineup back to Henderson. Naturally, we're looking for them to get on base and Henderson to bring them in. Given the matchup, we like their chances to do just that.
Last night, the Orioles had so much early success sitting on fastballs. Although they ultimately lost, they destroyed those pitches early, so they led early. Urias was a part of this, getting a hit early after sitting on a fastball. Tonight, he'll have the luxury of seeing a fastball-heavy pitcher again, and we're aiming for history to repeat itself.
As for Frazier, I won't try to sell you on him being a tremendous hitter. The numbers certainly don't lie, and he's batting in the spot he is for a reason. With that said, he's a tough player to strike out. He has a K-rate in the Bottom 10% of the league and an even better whiff rate.
Given how much Grove has struggled when balls are put into play against him, you don't have to think too long before you can envision a scenario where we see Frazier on base, perhaps multiple times.
I love the value tonight on Henderson in this spot. Overall, I view him as the best hitter in the O's lineup when it comes to contact and metrics such as a hard-hit rate in the 93rd percentile agree with me.
He should have multiple opportunities to bring in a run tonight, and given the contact problems the pitcher he's facing has, creating an RBI all by his lonesome isn't entirely out of the realm of possibilities either.
My best bet: Gunnar Henderson Over 0.5 RBI (+180)
Dodgers vs Orioles same-game parlay
Gunnar Henderson Over 0.5 RBI (+180)
Over 9.5 (-110)
Tyler Wells Over 1.5 walks (-150)
We're tying Henderson to record an RBI in our same-game parlay tonight with two other legs. The first is the Over at 9.5. We'll talk about this more in a bit but last night's game finished with 10 runs, and it's difficult to see this one going under that amount.
The Orioles hold a massive advantage on one end, but the Dodgers should be able to do their part in frustrating a strikeout-reliant pitcher. I also like the conditions tonight for run scoring. It'll be hot with temperatures approaching the 90s, and while the winds shift around throughout the game, they'll start blowing out.
The last leg of our same-game parlay is Tyler Wells to go Over 1.5 walks. Once again, I'll talk about this more below, but these pitchers follow a similar pattern against the Dodgers. L.A. has one of the lowest K-rates in the league and the highest walk rate.
Inevitably, when they face a pitcher who is an excellent strikeout pitcher but not elite like Wells, they force him to locate, and he gets frustrated and then gives up a few walks. I expect that to occur here.
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Dodgers vs Orioles moneyline and Over/Under analysis
If I have to lean to any side here, it's grabbing Baltimore on the first-five moneyline. I projected it at -130, and you can find it in the -125 range.
There's a distinct pitching advantage here in the form of Tyler Wells against Grove. Once again, the one thing that gives me pause is that Wells is a somewhat reliant strikeout pitcher.
Naturally, the Dodgers won't struggle against those pitchers like others with the lowest strikeout rate in the league. Still, this Baltimore lineup is filled with terrific fastball hitters. Not only will they get a pitcher that throws many, but they'll also get one with an issue with hard contact. That's two places the O's have thrived much of the season.
The public hasn't hidden from backing the O's tonight, either. As of publication, Baltimore was getting around 66% of the bets, per Covers Consensus.
I'll take a shot on the Over for a unit. It's at 9.5 and priced at -110 at various books, a little short of what I projected at 10.5 (-105).
I feel strongly about Groves' struggles continuing, and as I mentioned above, it shouldn't be all smooth sailing for Wells. It never is when you're facing the Dodgers lineup, but that's even more the case when you're reliant on chasing pitches against such a patient order.
The trends like the runs to keep flowing in this matchup tonight as well. The O's have gone Over in 13 of the last 22 games and around 60% of the last 77 games the Dodgers have played.
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Trend to know
Gunnar Henderson has recorded an RBI in four of his last five games. Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs. Orioles
Dodgers vs Orioles game info
| Location: | Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore, MD |
| Date: | Tuesday, July 18, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TBS |
Starting pitchers
Michael Grove (1-2, 6.89 ERA): Some of the problems for the Dodgers this season have started with their pitching and you can throw Grove into that conversation. He hasn't been good and a WHIP of 1.55 tells the story. He's been a bit unlucky too, but it's hard to say it's been too unfair, given the totality of his underlying metrics. He has an expected batting average in the Bottom 20% of baseball and a slugging percentage in the Bottom 20%. Simply put, he'll struggle mightily against good-hitting teams, and it's hard to see that changing anytime soon.
Tyler Wells (7-4, 3.18 ERA): The towering 6-foot-8 inch Tyler Wells has been solid this season and likely unlucky. His WHIP of .92 isn't precisely a profile of someone with an ERA over 3.00, but the results have been strong either way you slice it. He does have a home run problem but he's been quite good outside of that. He'll come into today off a 6-inning, 2-earned-run performance against the Twins.
