Dodgers vs Padres Predictions, Picks, Odds: Nola Struggles Against Urias' Velocity

Another Sunday, another Sunday Night Baseball matchup featuring some of the biggest stars in the game. The Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres will meet up in a primetime affair and, in the process, complete a three-game series between the two. 

The pair have split the first two games of this series. Last night, L.A. won in what was ultimately a pitcher's duel — the game finished with just three total runs — and the night before saw the Padres win by a 5-2 score. Before that loss, the Dodgers had reeled off five straight wins.

What's the best bet for this matchup? Find out in my MLB picks for the Dodgers vs. Padres in tonight's SNB action.

Dodgers vs Padres odds

Dodgers vs Padres predictions

The outcomes that both pitchers have gotten so far this season have been weird. Julio Urias has been a victim of a loss in fastball velocity, and a pitch that has typically been dominant for him has instead been one of his worst.

On the other hand, Joe Musgrove has had just two starts this season. One came to Mexico City, basically like playing a baseball game on the moon. Consequently, it's likely best practice to completely throw that one out. 

With all of that said, I'll be hitting the prop market to fade a hitter for my best bet.

I'm on Austin Nola not to grab a knock. Getting this at plus money is valuable, even from a raw number perspective. On the season, Nola has hits in 48% of his games, which makes the implied number of not getting a hit around -109. Getting +115 is an excellent value — especially given the matchup and where Nola is this season.

Nola has posted career lows so far in batting average, expected batting average, expected slugging, and wOBA. You may say he's due to break out of this slump sometime soon, but all of the predictive metrics say the opposite.

In this matchup against Urias, I expect Nola to struggle against the fastball. It's been a bugaboo for him this season so far. I mentioned previously how the fastball has been the actual issue for Urias this season, but this is one of those "bad meets worse" type things.

Generally, pitchers win those wars. Nola has hit just .129 against the fastball this season, and while Urias has struggled with that pitch, he's still going to throw a ton of it to try to fix his issues. It's also worth noting Nola has posted just a .108 expected batting average against the slider this season, and Urias's "other" pitch is the slurve.

This is the best value overall for me in this game. I expected a price of even more or even -105, so getting this at plus money is too good to overlook.

My best bet: Nola Under 0.5 hits (+115)

Dodgers vs Padres moneyline analysis

If I were to bet on this game, I'd stick to the F5 inning market and isolate the pitching matchup. And in this case, I'll have to give the San Diego Padres the slightest of leans.

Some of the problems that Urias has faced this season are something that will be more difficult to fix going forward. I don't know if this velocity loss for Urias is something that isn't going to be fixed, but I do know we've seen this same issue at every start this season.

To the surprise of none, San Diego has been an incredible fastball-hitting team for much of the season, and it's getting a pitcher who throws that pitch the most while allowing over .300 hitting against it. 

Dodgers vs Padres Over/Under analysis

This number is spot on. I had it projected at 8.0, and that's precisely what we have. As previously mentioned, both of these pitchers have been unlucky to start the season. That's especially true in Musgrove's case. The Padres can have some success against Urias' fastball given the velocity struggles, but I wonder if it's enough to push this Over. If we get a game that starts slow, I may be interested in jumping in, but otherwise, it's a complete pass for me — there's just not enough value on the current number. 

With that in mind, there are a few trends to note. Firstly, the Dodgers have been solid against right-handed starters this season, and their games have gone Over in five of the last six against them. However, when these two teams met in San Diego as of late, there's been a trend of low-scoring games. In fact, all but one of the last seven meetings between these two at Petco have gone Under. 

Dodgers vs Padres game info

Dodgers vs Padres betting preview

Starting pitchers

Julio Urias (4-3, 3.86 ERA): Urias' ERA feels a touch too high, given some of the metrics that follow it. That checks out when you see his xERA being closer to three than four (like his actual ERA). Still, Urias is finding the barrel a little too much with a barrel rate and expected slugging rate both at league average. He's also been bothered by his fastball velocity.

Joe Musgrove (1-0, 10.80 ERA): It's unlikely that you'll find a pitcher with this high of an ERA that has yet to record a loss this season. Musgrove was smacked around by the San Francisco Giants in his most previous starts when he surrendered seven earned runs in just over three innings of work. That start is an outlier, though. It was played in Mexico City, and we all know what that meant regarding run production — especially in the first game. The truth is Musgrove has more closely pitched to what he's been most of his career, and that's a guy with an ERA that hovers around three.

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Austin Nola has only had hits in back-to-back games just three times this season. Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs. Padres

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