The Los Angeles Dodgers (94-42) take their best record in MLB and head down to San Diego for a three-game weekend series with the Padres (76-62).
Heavy rains are expected in the area due to Hurricane Kay arriving in Baja, California, but this game is still scheduled to go on as planned for now.
Will the Dodgers increase their 19-game lead over the Padres?
Check out our MLB picks and predictions for the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres on Friday, September 9 to find out.
Dodgers vs Padres best odds
Dodgers vs Padres picks and predictions
I’ve been riding with the Dodgers on the run line for the majority of this season, and there’s no reason to hop off the train now. They’ve been the best team in the MLB by a substantial margin, posting a +298 run differential — over 100 runs better than the next-closest team, the Yankees (+195).
The Dodgers are a well-oiled machine bracing for the playoffs. The Padres, meanwhile, are locked in a tight battle for an NL Wild Card spot. They’re like a playoff team but will need to finish strong.
San Diego could use better play from its star trade deadline acquisition, Juan Soto. The Childish Bambino is batting just .232 with three home runs and a .771 OPS across 127 at-bats for his new club, a far cry from the .313 average and .999 OPS he posted a year ago in Washington.
Soto was hit by a pitch on Wednesday and is considered questionable for this contest, although he is ultimately expected to give it a go on Friday.
Mike Clevinger is on the mound for the Padres, and I’m just not a believer in his profile. His strikeout rate has seen a precipitous drop from 33.9% in 2019 to 20.5% this season. It’s been a steep drop-off, and he hasn’t counteracted the drop in whiffs with effectiveness in other areas.
He still issues walks (7.7% walk rate) and is allowing a decent amount of hard contact (6.1% barrel rate), which won’t hold up against arguably MLB’s best lineup.
Dustin May returned to the rotation on August 20 after a long recovery from Tommy John surgery. The Dodgers took it slow in his rehab process, as he began the assignment back on July 16 and proceeded to make five starts for Triple-A Oklahoma City. He looked great in those starts, posting a 1.69 ERA and striking out 26 batters.
He’s been hit or miss in his three starts since returning to the MLB, most recently allowing six earned runs to the Padres in his last outing. Still, May appears to be nearly fully stretched out after tossing over 86 pitches in each of his last two outings and should resume being an effective pitcher.
The Dodgers have won seven straight series against the Padres and are 10-3 in the 13 meetings this season. I’ll take that dominance to continue.
My best bet: Dodgers run line -1.5 (+110 at WynnBet)
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Dodgers vs Padres betting preview
Jump to:
•Side analysis •Over/Under analysis •Starting pitchers •Injuries •Weather •Trend to know
Moneyline analysis
The Dodgers have posted a 45-24 record on the road this season — not quite the 49-18 record they’ve posted at Dodger Stadium, but impressive, nonetheless.
In their last 52 games against a right-handed pitcher, the Dodgers have a 40-12 record. Clevinger brings his 4.47 FIP and 6.1%-barrel rate against a team that ranks first in both runs per game (5.44) and OPS (.790).
There isn’t a ton of data available on May, since he’s made only 22 starts in his career, but what we’ve seen has been encouraging. He posted a 2.74 ERA and 3.03 xERA across five starts a year ago and has a 3.05 ERA in his career. He faces a Padres lineup that ranks 19th in both wOBA and wRC+ in September.
It’s quite possible that the Padres benefit from the off day, as they’re 12-2 in their last 14 games following a day of rest. Neither team played a game on Thursday.
The Dodgers are 38-15 in the last 53 meetings overall and have found success in San Diego recently, posting a 5-1 record in their last six trips to Petco Park.
Over/Under analysis
The Dodger bats haven’t slowed down a bit, ranking second in wOBA and first in wRC+ since the calendar flipped to September. They’ve been an Over machine, going 6-0-1 to the Over in their last seven games.
Mike Clevinger has been a pitcher that favors the Over, as he’s gone 11-6 to the Over across his 17 starts this season.
On the other hand, the Dodgers have typically played in low-scoring games following a day of rest, going 26-9-1 to the Under in their last 36 games after a day of rest.
The Padres rank 19th in both wOBA and wRC+ in the month of September, but plated six runs against May on September 2. May walked five batters in that contest and allowed four hits and two home runs.
The Padres have been trending to the Over as well, cashing in six of their last seven games. They’ve typically been in high-scoring games on Friday, going 12-3-2 to the Over in their last 17 Friday games.
Personally, I do not trust Clevinger’s profile against this lethal Dodger lineup. Both teams have been trending heavily toward the Over.
Dodgers vs Padres game info
• Location: PETCO Park, San Diego, CA
• Date: Friday, September 9, 2022
• First pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
• TV: Bally Sports San Diego
Starting pitchers
Dustin May (1-2, 3.94 ERA): May has been a talented prospect for a few years now, and fans are anxious to see that potential untapped. Friday will mark just his fourth start of the year and his ninth since the start of the 2021 season.
He’s been effective in a limited sample size, posting a 27.3% strikeout rate and 3.86 xERA. He’ll need to cut down his 12.1% walk rate, which hasn’t been a concern of his in the past.
Mike Clevinger (5-6, 3.96 ERA): Clevinger’s 4.29 xERA and 4.47 FIP are both higher than his actual ERA, which is never an encouraging sign. His strikeout rate (20.5%) is the lowest of his career and he’s survived this year by posting a career-low in BABIP (.251).
Considering his 6.1% barrel rate isn’t the best, he’s been a bit fortunate that more of those balls in play haven’t gone for hits.
Key injuries
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Betting trend to know
The Dodgers are 10-3 in the last three meetings between these two teams. Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs. Padres
