The Los Angeles Dodgers and Boston Red Sox begin a three-game series at Fenway Park on Friday night. These are two of the most historic franchises in baseball history but they haven't faced each other since 2019.
The Dodgers have the third-best record in the majors while the BoSox are in the thick of the Wild Card race. MLB betting lines opened with the Red Sox as slim +105 home underdog for this contest with the Over/Under at 10. Here are my best free Dodgers vs. Red Sox MLB picks and predictions for August 25.
Dodgers vs Red Sox odds
Dodgers vs Red Sox predictions
Mookie Betts will be making his long-awaited return to Boston following his blockbuster trade to L.A. in 2020. The five-time Silver Slugger winner is enjoying his best campaign for the Dodgers, batting .310 with a .605 slugging percentage and ranking fourth in the majors with 283 total bases. Betts has been on fire this month, slashing .463/.516/.817 with eight doubles and seven dingers in 21 games.
Red Sox manager Alex Alex Cora announced after last night's victory in Houston that they'll give today's start to Kutter Crawford. The 27-year-old is enjoying a breakout season for Boston, pitching to a 3.66 ERA with a 1.09 WHIP through 96 innings. That said, Crawford has struggled at home where he has a 5.95 ERA with an OBA of .266.
With 394 career games at Fenway, Betts knows how to hit at this park boasting a career slugging percentage of .544 here. With Betts picking up at least two total bases in 17 of 21 (81%) games in August take the Over 1.5 on his total bases at -120.
My best bet: Mookie Betts Over 1.5 total bases (-120)
Dodgers vs Red Sox same-game parlay
Mookie Betts Over 1.5 TB (-120)
Over 10.5 (-115)
Justin Turner Over 1.5 TB (+125)
With Crawford's history of struggling at home, I'm fading him against a stacked Dodgers lineup that plates an MLB-best 5.89 runs per game on the road. That said, the other reason I like the Over 10.5 to cash is that I'm not sold on L.A. starter Lance Lynn either.
Sure, Lynn has pitched to a sizzling 1.44 ERA in 25 innings since the Dodgers traded for him, but when you look beyond those surface numbers things don't look as rosy. While one of those starts came against a solid Padres offense that contest took place at pitcher-friendly Petco Park. The other three starts for Lynn in Dodgers blue came against the A's, Brewers, and the Rockies away from Coors — three of the worst-hitting teams in the bigs.
Lynn looked like one of the worst pitchers in the majors when he was on the White Sox and he'll have a tough time navigating a Boston lineup that averages 5.32 runs/game with an OPS of .814 at home.
Not only do I like Betts to have a big night against his former team, but I expect the same for former Dodger Justin Turner. The designated hitter has been mashing for his new team, slashing .326/.387/.565 since the start of July. He's also gone 3-for-9 with a pair of doubles in his career against Lynn.
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Dodgers vs Red Sox moneyline and Over/Under analysis
This game opened at close to a pick'em with Boston installed at -105 but money has come in on the Dodgers who have the second-best odds to win the World Series. That has slightly shifted the line to Boston +105 with the O/U ticking up from 10 to 10.5.
The Red Sox are coming off a 17-1 rout of the Astros, giving them their 10th win in their last 15 games. They're sitting just 3.5 games behind Seattle for the final Wild Card spot in the AL but it's been a tough road for them in the highly-competitive AL East.
Thankfully for Boston fans, the Red Sox are getting healthier in their rotation and they've been productive at the plate — especially at home.
Meanwhile, the Dodgers have a 78-48 record and have gone a sizzling 19-3 this month. Lynn has helped round out a rotation that has been decimated by injuries and their lineup is anchored by two of the best hitters in the game in Betts and Freddie Freeman.
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Trend to know
The Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in their last 8 games (+8.05 Units / 91% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs. Red Sox
Dodgers vs Red Sox game info
| Location: | Fenway Park, Boston, MA |
| Date: | Friday, August 25, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Apple TV+ |
Starting pitchers
Lance Lynn (9-9, 5.60 ERA): Lynn was in the midst of a disastrous season for the White Sox, pitching to a 6.47 ERA with a 1.46 WHIP through 21 starts. It looks like a change of scenery is exactly what he needed since in four starts for the Dodgers he has a sizzling 1.44 ERA with a 0.88 WHIP.
That said, his 3.95 FIP over that span and a season-long barrel rate and expected slugging percentage that rank in the bottom 20th percentile are a bit concerning.
Kutter Crawford (6-6, 3.66 ERA): The 27-year-old is enjoying a breakout season for Boston, pitching to a 3.55 expected ERA and a 1.09 WHIP through 96 innings. Although his expected batting average, average exit velocity, and hard hit rate all rank in the top 25th percentile, his barrel rate is in the bottom 30th percentile.
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