FC Cincinnati vs New England Revolution Picks and Predictions: Revolution Will Not Be Stopped

The top two teams in the Eastern Conference square off on Saturday night when FC Cincinnati hosts the New England Revolution in a key MLS match.

FC Cincinnati is one victory shy of setting a new league record for consecutive home wins in a single season, but to reach that milestone will require beating the Revs at home for the first time ever. Standing in their way is a New England side that has won three straight and not lost in their last six, and who could cut Cincinnati’s lead to just four points with a victory.

Can FC Cincinnati overcome key personnel absences to build a double-digit lead atop the East, or will New England push their unbeaten streak to eight matches against their Queen City foes? We discuss that and more in our FC Cincinnati vs New England Revolution betting picks and predictions for Saturday, July 1. 

FC Cincinnati vs New England Revolution best odds

FC Cincinnati vs New England Revolution picks and predictions

Since FC Cincinnati won the first meeting between these two sides in 2019, they’ve gone seven straight without repeating that achievement. New England proceeded to win the next five meetings, before a pair of draws in the last two matchups.

Earlier this season, the two teams battled to a 1-1 stalemate in Foxboro, but the metrics show it should’ve been a much different result. New England dominated for large stretches of the match, and despite an xG of 4.83, they managed just one goal. Cincinnati, for their part, also underperformed their expected output with a 2.19 xG and just one goal, in large part due to having a penalty saved that would’ve put them up 2-0.

Now they return to Cincinnati, where the hosts have conceded just five goals in their 10 MLS outings at TQL Stadium this season while scoring 19 of their own. However, FC Cincinnati will be without four key players who have been pivotal components in both those areas. 

Defender Matt Miazga and forward Brandon Vazquez are both in the USMNT squad for the Gold Cup, and their absences were felt in a 3-0 shock defeat at DC United this past weekend. Making matters worse, defender Ian Murphy was shown a second yellow card in the 79th minute, and his sending off results in a one-match ban that he serves against New England. This is in addition to striker Brenner still being out injured.

That will be a big boost for New England. Their 33 goals scored are fourth-most in the Eastern Conference, with Carles Gil and Bobby Wood both leading the way with seven each. They’re a side that loves to run at their opponents, with their 386 progressive carries ranking third in the league. They’re going to put pressure on a Cincinnati back line that will be lacking cohesion and familiarity, and it should lead to a few goals.

At the other end, New England keeper Djordje Petrovic has been outstanding, and he was named an MLS All-Star starter this week. He’s coming off a performance against Toronto last weekend that saw him make nine saves, and he had four against Cincinnati earlier this season, including the aforementioned penalty save. Cincinnati’s attack will still pose a threat, but the absence of Vasquez is a big one. 

While I’m not willing to stake myself to a New England victory, I do believe they will get a result on Saturday. They’re in fine form, and the missing pieces for Cincinnati are a lot to overcome. More importantly, New England knows how to get a result in the hostile environment presented at TQL Stadium, and Bruce Arena is a good manager who will set his side up to once again stifle Cincinnati. Take the visitors getting half a goal on the Asian spread, or the double chance at a bit higher price if that’s unavailable. 

My best bet: New England +0.5 goals (-133 at bet365)

FC Cincinnati vs New England Revolution side analysis

The 3-way line has Cincinnati favored at even money or higher, which makes sense considering their unprecedented start to the season at home. A draw pays out slightly more than a New England victory, both of which provide solid value at +280 and +260, respectively.

Cincinnati’s 3-0 defeat at DC United ended a 14-match unbeaten run in all competitions, and was their first defeat since mid-April. They’ve won all 13 home matches across all competitions, keeping eight clean sheets. The loss was also just their second of the season overall. They will be missing Vazquez, Murphy, and Miazga, while Brenner da Silva continues to be out with an injury.

New England have three wins in a row and six unbeaten, but they’ve had struggles away from home this season. While they’ve drawn their last two away from home, they’ve lost three and won three and have conceded multiple goals in three of the last four, none of which were victories. They will be without winger Nacho Gil and striker Dylan Borrero, who was hurt in the first meeting.

Cincinnati have not won any of the last seven meetings between these two sides, although they’ve drawn the last two. New England simply has their number, and we’re on that trend to continue Saturday. 

FC Cincinnati vs New England Revolution Over/Under analysis

The Under 2.5 is favored in this one, with a price of -135 or higher in what many expect to be a low-scoring affair. Their 1-1 draw earlier this season ended a four-match run of Overs in this series, however, with 20 goals being scored in those previous four outings.

Cincinnati has conceded just five goals in 10 home MLS outings, while scoring 19 of their own. Six of those matches have gone Over 2.5 goals, including five of the last six. As for New England, five of their nine away matches have gone Over 2.5 goals, including three of their last four. There have also been three or more goals in seven of their last eight matches overall.

I’ll be staying away from the total in this one. Both teams have the firepower to light up the scoreboard, but New England’s keeper is playing terrific of late and Cincinnati’s back line could set up a bit differently given the missing pieces. 

FC Cincinnati vs New England Revolution game info

FC Cincinnati vs New England Revolution key injuries

FC Cincinnati: Brenner F (Out), Matt Miazga D (Out), Brandon Vazquez F (Out), Ian Murphy D (Out).
New England Revolution: Dylan Borrero F (Out), Nacho Gil F (Out), Henry Kessler D (Out).

FC Cincinnati vs New England Revolution weather

Players and fans will be in for a hot one on Saturday night, with the heat index at kickoff being over 90 degrees. The temp won’t drop a whole lot after sundown as winds will be minimal, but there’s a possibility of rain cooling things down with a 33% chance throughout the match.

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