NYCFC look to end their recent skid when they host Lionel Messi and Inter Miami on Saturday afternoon.
Messi came off the bench mid-week in a draw with Atlanta, and he returns to the starting XI today, my NYCFC vs. Inter Miami prediction focuses on his fellow star.
I break down the action in my MLS betting picks for Saturday, September 21.
New York City FC vs Inter Miami picks and predictions
My best bet:
Luis Suarez 1+ shot on goal in first half (-125 at FanDuel)
My analysis
The first-half shot on goal market is one that’s often overlooked, but can offer terrific value when a team is getting lots of betting action on their attacking props. And this match is a perfect example, as we’re going to back Luis Suarez to get an effort on goal in the first half at -125, compared to a price of -460 for the whole match.
NYCFC are reeling at the moment. Their 5-1 loss at home midweek saw them down 3-1 at halftime, with both of the Union strikers finding the back of the net in the opening 45. Combined, they had four shots on goal before the intermission, and that’s not counting Daniel Gazdag, who sits right behind the forwards and also found a first-half goal.
Inter Miami rank fourth in MLS in shots on target, thanks in large part to their stars. Messi and Suarez often get into dangerous spots, and doing so on Saturday will be advantageous. Only five teams in the league are allowing more attempts on target than NYCFC. And the Pigeons have struggled defensively at Yankee Stadium of late, conceding seven goals in the last two matches there.
Suarez has taken 15 shots since the resumption of play after Leagues Cup. He’s started three of their four matches following the tournament, and has put an effort on-frame prior to halftime in each of them with seven in total. And off the bench against Atlanta, he managed a shot on goal just three minutes after entering the fray.
With NYCFC missing center back Birk Risa, Suarez should have more room to operate. He’ll test the keeper at least once before halftime and put money into our pockets.
Lionel Messi Prop
My best bet:
Messi to score or assist (-135 at FanDuel)
My analysis
Messi lit up the scoreboard in his return from injury, with two goals and an assist against the Union last weekend. He came off the bench against Atlanta to manage two shots, including an effort on goal.
Right now, the markets haven’t completely gone to the crazy levels they often do with him, and there’s some value on the board. Messi is getting -110 odds to manage 2+ shots on target, which is a fair price and one I’d look strongly at.
If you want to back him for goals, he’s getting +490 at FanDuel to open the scoring, which is an outlier. They’re also offering him at +125 to score anytime, a number that might be too good to pass up given how poorly NYCFC are playing at the moment.
My favorite play for Messi is for him to either score or assist. FanDuel has him priced at -135, the lowest I’ve seen for that prop in some time, and you’ll see it again in our same-game parlay.
New York City FC vs Inter Miami same-game parlay (SGP)
Luis Suarez 1+ shot on target in 1H
Luis Suarez anytime goalscorer
Lionel Messi to score or assist
Suarez has five goals in his last three starts, and it appears the rest after Leagues Cup has done him well. He’s got 10 shots on goal from 15 total attempts in that timeframe, and I like him to repeat what the Philadelphia strikers achieved this week.
Messi is key to everything that Inter Miami does, and he’s been heavily involved in their goals all season. Dating back to the start of the season, he’s either scored or assisted in 11 of his 13 starts. He’ll do so again here.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
New York City FC vs Inter Miami odds
New York City FC vs Inter Miami live odds
New York City FC vs Inter Miami opening odds
- Moneyline: New York City FC +155 | Inter Miami +150
- Draw: +250
- Over/Under: Over 2.5 (-154) | Under 2.5 (+120)
New York City FC vs Inter Miami side and Over/Under analysis
- Inter Miami are underdogs on the 3-way money line, despite NYCFC’s form. The herons are priced at +200 for a win, with NYCFC getting +115 odds. The draw pays out +290.
- Inter Miami have 10 of a possible 12 points since MLS play resumed, with a win and draw in their two away fixtures. NYCFC have gone eight without a victory in MLS play, losing three times and drawing the other five. I’d back Inter Miami to get a result against a struggling home side.
- The total for this one has gone up quickly. Over 2.5 is juiced north of -200, and you have to go to the Asian total of 3.25 to find anything close to parity between the two sides.
- Inter Miami’s last three matches have featured 4+ goals, and only one of their last 14 league fixtures have failed to see at least three tallied. NYCFC’s last seven home matches have seen 3+ goals scored on six occasions.
New York City FC vs Inter Miami game info
| Location: | Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY |
| Date: | Saturday, 9-21-2024 |
| Time: | 2:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Apple TV |
| Weather: | 74F, clear skies, 7mph wind, 1% POP |
New York City FC vs Inter Miami key injuries
New York City FC: Kirk Risa D (Out), Malachi Jones F (Out).
Inter Miami: Facundo Farias F (Out), Matias Rojas F (Out), Diego Gomez M (Out), CJ dos Santos GK (Out).
Not intended for use in MA.
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