Toronto FC looks to keep their postseason hopes alive when they host Inter Miami on Saturday in their final MLS match of the season.
Toronto FC likely needs a win and some help to reach the playoffs, clinging to the last spot in the Eastern Conference while other teams have matches in hand. With the Supporters Shield sewn up, Inter Miami is likely to rest the likes of Lionel Messi and Luis Suarez.
My Toronto FC vs. Inter Miami predictions dive into the match and explain why the Herons should still be Saturday’s choice for your soccer betting picks.
Toronto FC vs Inter Miami picks and predictions
My best bet:
Inter Miami (+188 at bet365)
My analysis
While it’s not a ‘win or go home’ scenario for Toronto FC in a mathematical sense, it might as well be. The Reds are level on points with Philadelphia and DC United, each of whom have a match in hand. Were Toronto not to get a victory on Saturday, either club could pass them with a win from their final two outings.
That’s easier said than done for a Toronto side that has freefallen towards the end of the campaign. They’re winless in their last four league fixtures, taking just one point in the process, and have lost four of their last six. In fact, they’ve claimed just 13 of a possible 48 points since mid-June.
Wednesday night saw Toronto get thrashed in the second half by New York Red Bulls. The Red Bulls led at halftime after an Emil Forsberg penalty, but they doubled their lead just three minutes after the intermission and added two more on the other side of a Toronto penalty.
Scoring goals has been a problem for Toronto of late. That penalty was their only marker of the match despite posting a 1.69 xG, and was only their second goal in the last four league outings.
The absence of Lorenzo Insigne has made finding goals a bit difficult, and it won’t get any easier without their other Italian winger. Federico Bernardeschi was sent off against Red Bulls for a pair of yellow cards, and will miss Saturday’s outing.
Inter Miami’s likely going to rotate, and it’s very doubtful Lionel Messi plays at all ahead of his international duty with Argentina. Luis Suarez is probably going to see himself on the bench to begin as well. But that doesn’t mean Inter Miami won’t be able to cause problems.
In fact, Toronto faced a heavily rotated Miami side back in July. Not only did Messi not participate, but Suarez played just the final half hour while Sergio Busquets was suspended. And Inter Miami scored three goals in the opening hour, including one shortly before halftime as they won 3-1.
The public has been coming in on Toronto since Miami clinched, and I think that presents terrific value for those backing the away side. Inter Miami has won the last three meetings, and are getting hot at the right moment, as they’re unbeaten in nine straight league matches.
Toronto’s situation will require them to go for broke early in this one, and Miami has plenty of pace to hurt them on the break. The likes of Julian Gressel, Diego Gomez, and Leonardo Campana are more than capable of finding goals, and will condemn Toronto to a crushing 10th home MLS defeat.
Toronto FC vs Inter Miami same-game parlay (SGP)
Inter Miami moneyline
Toronto FC Over 4 corners
The Reds aren’t scoring goals in part because they’re not hitting the target with their shots. Inter Miami does a good job of absorbing pressure, and it’s led to them conceding the sixth-most corners in the league. Combine the two with Toronto’s push for goals, and we should see enough blocked efforts for the home side to get at least five corners.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Toronto FC vs Inter Miami odds
Toronto FC vs Inter Miami live odds
Toronto FC vs Inter Miami opening odds
- Moneyline: Toronto FC +125 | Inter Miami +180
- Draw: +275
- Over/Under: Over 2.5 | Under 2.5
Toronto FC vs Inter Miami side and Over/Under analysis
- Toronto are favorites on the 3-way money line with a price of +135 available. Miami can be had for +188, while the draw pays out at +300.
- Money has come in on Toronto, but they’re winless in their last four in league play. They’ve also lost three straight to Inter Miami.
- The Over 2.5 is juiced substantially. Over 3.25 on the Asian market is the closest to even odds you’ll find.
- Miami’s seen 4+ goals in four of their last six MLS fixtures, but the only two of Toronto’s last eight matches have seen four goals registered.
Toronto FC vs Inter Miami game info
| Location: | BMO Field, Toronto, ON |
| Date: | Saturday, 10-5-2024 |
| Time: | 4:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Apple TV |
| Weather: | 64F, 8 mph winds, 0% PoP |
Toronto FC vs Inter Miami key injuries
Toronto FC: Federico Bernardeschi F (Out), Lorenzo Insigne F (Doubtful), Nickeseon Gomis F (Out).
Inter Miami: Lionel Messi F (Doubtful), Federico Redondo M (Out), Facundo Farias M (Out).
Not intended for use in MA.
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