The Toronto Blue Jays are looking to build some momentum as they welcome the San Francisco Giants to town for the opener of a three-game interleague set at the Rogers Centre on Tuesday. But that will be easier said than done, as the Giants come into this matchup feeling pretty good about themselves having won 12 of their last 14 games.
Luckily for Toronto, a pair of former Giants are also playing well and will do their best to stand in the way of their former team earning a win. Kevin Gausman takes the ball, and Brandon Belt looks to stay hot at the plate.
I break down the MLB odds and bring you my best bet, plus a same-game parlay in our MLB picks and predictions for Giants vs. Blue Jays on June 27.
Giants vs Blue Jays odds
Giants vs Blue Jays predictions
The Giants have been arguably the hottest team in baseball over the last few weeks. Their 12-2 stretch has seen them secure three straight series victories over divisional foes, including a sweep of the hated Los Angeles Dodgers.
But baseball is a unique sport because you are only as good as your next starting pitcher, and the Giants are in a tough spot heading into this series against the Blue Jays.
San Francisco will go with an opener on Tuesday night, handing the ball to Ryan Walker. This will be the fourth time this season the rookie right-hander has been used as an opener. He has a 4.91 ERA and an 11.99 FIP in those three games, and hasn’t lasted longer than 1 2/3 innings.
That’s the important part, because it sounds like the bulk guy is going to be one of either Alex Wood or former Blue Jay Ross Stripling. Neither of those are good options at the moment.
Wood is pitching to a 5.29 expected ERA while giving up a .452 expected slugging percentage to opponents. Stripling has been even worse, owning a 7.01 xERA and a .561 xSlugging. If I was the Giants, I would lean toward Wood considering the Jays have been more effective against right-handers this season.
There are far fewer questions with Kevin Gausman going for the Blue Jays. Outside a few blips, the right-hander has been one of the most effective starters in the American League this season. Gausman is pitching to a 3.40 xERA and leads the AL in strikeouts and FIP.
The Giants have some solid numbers vs. right-handed pitching, but they certainly swing from their heels at times, and they have the seventh-highest K-rate when facing righties as a result. Gausman’s devastating splitter could really dance tonight.
Gausman will also have the added motivation of going against his former team who didn’t really make a big effort to re-sign him once he entered free agency following the 2021 season. He will hold the Giants down early, while the top of the Jays lineup (including Brandon Belt) will stake Gausman to an early lead. Take the home team to have the lead through five innings.
My best bet: Blue Jays -0.5 first five innings (-130 at SIA)
Giants vs Blue Jays same-game parlay
Blue Jays -0.5 F5
Blue Jays to score first
Gausman 10+ Ks
For tonight’s same-game parlay, we are going to keep much of the focus on Gausman. I expect the right-hander to have another solid night on the mound and lead the Jays to an early advantage, so of course we start with the best bet of taking the Jays to have the lead through five innings.
Next up, let’s add the Jays to score first in this matchup. There is a little value there considering they are the home team and get the second at-bat. But with Gausman on the mound, I like their chances of getting to the bottom of the first with the game still scoreless.
Walker has allowed a run in two of the last three games he has opened. If the game goes farther than that without seeing a run, the Jays still have the edge for a while on the mound. So, add Toronto to score first.
And to close it out, let’s go with a big day of punchouts for Gausman. He only has 14 strikeouts in his last three starts, but I think he will get back on track against the swing-happy Giants. That splitter will look like it’s magic to the Giants hitters, and he’ll send them back to the dugouts in bunches. He’s had double-digit Ks in six of his 16 starts. I’m betting today is lucky No. 7 for a nice +750 payout.
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Giants vs Blue Jays moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Blue Jays opened this matchup as approximately -160 home favorites and have seen the early action, moving into the -170 range. While I prefer to take the Jays on the five-inning runline, I still think there is some value in them on the moneyline as well.
While Gausman has been super consistent for much of the season, he’s been even better at home, boasting a 2.61 ERA and striking out 12.3 batters per nine innings. And while the Giants are playing some good baseball at the moment, they are still striking out 24% of the time when facing right-handed pitchers this season, so they could have some trouble against Gausman and his slider.
But the bigger issue is who follows Walker. As I said above, neither option is great. While the Giants have a solid bullpen, they likely won’t want to burn through their best arms in Game 1 of this three-game set. I like the Jays up to -175 in this spot.
That said, I think this might play a little better to the total, which opened at 9 and has been bet all the way down to an even 8. But even that number may be a little high.
Gausman has held opponents to two earned runs or fewer in five of his last six starts at home while pitching nearly seven innings per start. Then he hands the ball off to a bullpen that ranks second in xFIP and fifth in strikeouts per nine innings.
Even though the Giants might not have the best situation going when it comes to the rotation heading into this matchup, they can lean on the bullpen, which ranks third in xFIP and 10th in K/9, if they want to.
The Jays bats came to play on the weekend, but do games against the A’s even count? I would lean Under here.
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Trend to know
The Under is 5-2-1 in Blue Jays' last eight home games vs. a team with a winning record. Find more MLB betting trends for Giants vs. Blue Jays
Giants vs Blue Jays game info
| Location: | Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON |
| Date: | Tuesday, June 27, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 7:07 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBC Bay Area, Sportsnet |
Starting pitchers
Ryan Walker (0-2, 1.89 ERA): Walker is a rookie right-handed reliever for the Giants. He's been pretty effective out of the pen but has struggled more in the opener role, allowing two runs on five hits and four walks over 3 2/3 innings in those spots.
Kevin Gausman (7-3, 3.10 ERA): Gausman has been one of the American League's most effective starters, recording a quality start in 12 of the 16 times he has taken the mound. He's been even better at home with a 2.61 ERA and striking out 12.3 batters per nine.
