The Toronto Blue Jays continue to find frustrating ways to lose baseball games and Tueday's series opener against the San Francisco Giants was no exception.
Kevin Gausman dominated last night, allowing just one run on three hits while striking out 12 in six innings of work. But, as has been the theme for Toronto all season, the Jays struggled to hit with runners in scoring position and failed to give Gausman any support in an eventual 3-0 loss.
Today, the Blue Jays will try to turn the tables on the Giants by winning a bullpen game of their own while going against San Francisco’s top starter Logan Webb. Does Toronto have some value as a short home favorite, or will it be another day of the team’s bats going silent when they’re needed the most?
I break down the MLB odds and bring you my best bet, plus a same-game parlay in MLB picks and predictions for Giants vs. Blue Jays.
Looking for today's game? Check out our Giants vs. Braves picks for Thursday, June 29.
Giants vs Blue Jays odds
Giants vs Blue Jays predictions
The Blue Jays continue to lose in frustrating ways. It can be hard to stomach a loss where your starting pitcher dominates through six innings, and you have nothing to show for it. And it’s not going to get any easier tonight when they dig into the batter’s box to face off against Logan Webb.
The Giants right-hander has been one of the National League’s most reliable starters over the past few seasons. In 2023, he is pitching to an expected ERA of 3.63 and owns a WHIP of 1.10 thanks in large part to the fact that he rarely walks anybody.
Now, the Jays do a better job against right-handed pitchers, but they rarely seem to come up with that big hit when it matters the most. Toronto ranks 25th in batting average and OPS with runners in scoring position this season.
Meanwhile, it’s a bullpen day for the Blue Jays, which will likely feature Trevor Richards as an opener. Richards reinvented himself this offseason and has developed one of the most devastating changeups in baseball. As a result, he has a 3.21 xERA while holding opponents to a .177 expected batting average, and has one of the highest strikeout rates in baseball at 35.8%.
The Jays also like using Richards as an opener because he can give them multiple innings to start the game. The last two times he has opened, he has pitched three innings. Outside of two home runs, he has pitched well in that role, allowing three runs on four hits while striking out nine.
Afterward, look for some combination of Bowden Francis and Trent Thornton to eat up the bulk of the remaining innings. That’s not as good. Francis has a 4.47 xERA in limited innings and Thornton has a career 5.63 xERA dating back to 2019.
While the Giants don’t have big-name stars, there aren’t many holes in this lineup and they rank 12th in OPS and 10th in wRC+. In addition to all of that, they have won 10 consecutive road games. I like the Giants to get off to a good start.
My best bet: Giants first five innings moneyline (-102 at SIA)
Giants vs Blue Jays same-game parlay
Giants first five moneyline (+110)
Logan Webb Over 18.5 outs recorded (+125)
Bo Bichette Over 1.5 hits (+130)
The Giants look like they are providing some value in this interleague matchup so we’ll open this same-game parlay with our best bet.
Next up, let’s take a closer look at Webb, who has logged more innings than any other starter in baseball. He is averaging over 6.5 innings per start and has gone Over 18.5 outs recorded in 11 of his last 13 outings. With Toronto’s issues coming up with the clutch hit, I’m adding him to go Over that number once again.
While the Blue Jays are having trouble scoring, you can’t blame Bo Bichette. The Blue Jays shortstop is one of the best hitters in baseball. He owns a .323 batting average for the season and he’s in a groove right now. Bichette's riding a 12-game hitting streak where he is hitting .360 and has recorded a multi-hit game in three straight.
Let’s close this SPG out with him to do that for a fourth and a nice +900 payday.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Giants vs Blue Jays moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Blue Jays opened this matchup as slight -115 home favorites and have actually seen some early action with the line moving to -120. I’m not sure the money is moving the right way.
As noted, San Francisco has all the momentum, winning 10 straight road games. On top of that, the lineups and bullpens are close to a wash. So, with the Giants having a decided edge in starting pitching with Webb on the bump, the road team definitely looks like a solid value at even money.
Meanwhile, the total has held steady since opening at 8.5 and this number feels pretty spot on. If you did want to look at a total I might consider the Under 4.5 of the five-inning total. Richards has proven to be one of the more effective relievers in the American League this season. His high K-rate should play vs. a Giants team that has the sixth-highest strikeout rate when facing right-handed pitchers.
Mix that with a Jays team struggling to consistently score and it could be a low-scoring game early on.
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Trend to know
The Giants are 18-5 in their last 23 road games. Find more MLB betting trends for Giants vs. Blue Jays
Giants vs Blue Jays game info
| Location: | Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON |
| Date: | Wednesday, June 28, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 7:07 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBCSBA, Sportsnet |
Starting pitchers
Logan Webb (7-6, 3.16 ERA): No one throws more innings than Webb. The right-hander leads the MLB with 105 1/3 innings pitched this season. He has completed seven innings in nine of his last 12 starts.
Trevor Richards (0-1, 3.53 ERA): This will be his third game as an opener. In the first, he struck out seven batters in three innings against the Twins. In the second, he gave up three runs in three innings thanks to a pair of long balls surrendered to the Rangers.
