After a rough start, where they wasted another impressive performance from Kevin Gausman, the Toronto Blue Jays responded with a 6-1 victory yesterday. They are well-positioned to come away with a win in tonight’s series finale against the visiting San Francisco Giants.
Toronto will be a moderate home favorite as they hand the ball to veteran right-hander Chris Bassitt while the Giants counter with rookie Keaton Winn. But Bassitt is in a bit of a slump. Can he right the ship against a scrappy San Francisco team, or do the Giants have value as an underdog?
I break down the MLB odds and bring you my best bet, plus a juicy same-game parlay, in our MLB picks and predictions for Giants vs. Blue Jays on June 29.
Giants vs Blue Jays odds
Giants vs Blue Jays predictions
Bo Bichette extended his latest hitting streak to 13 straight games, helping lead the Blue Jays to a 6-1 win on Wednesday. It was one of the better and more balanced offense performances we have seen from Toronto recently. The team totaled 12 hits, and everyone in the starting lineup had at least one knock in the win.
They’ll try to keep that going when they dig in against Giants rookie Keaton Winn. Winn is making just his fourth career appearance and his first career start. He has a 3.75 ERA in three bulk appearances but is coming off his toughest spot of the season, where he allowed three runs on five hits in three innings vs. the Arizona Diamondbacks.
Tonight, he gets an interesting matchup against the Jays. Overall, Toronto has above-average numbers when facing right-handers. The Blue Jays rank fourth in batting average, seventh in OPS, and fifth in wRC+ vs. righties this season. Their problem has been stringing together hits and getting that clutch hit with runners in scoring position. But that changed yesterday when they plated five runs in the first inning.
Winn is an interesting pitcher because he throws his splitter more than 60 percent of the time. The splitter has been effective, but when he has gotten in trouble when he has had to use his four-seam fastball, which is getting tagged for a .645 expected slugging percentage.
Countering Winn is Blue Jays veteran Chris Bassitt. This season has been a bit of a roller coaster for Bassitt. The right-hander got smoked for nine runs on 10 hits in his first start of the season. Then he went on a 12-start stretch where he pitched to a 2.40 ERA and limited opponents to a .173 batting average. But the last three starts have been a struggle, where his ERA has ballooned to 11.57 while surrendering a 1.181 OPS.
Overall, Bassitt owns a ho-hum 4.61 xERA and is giving up a .433 xSlugging. Tonight’s matchup against the Giants won’t be an easy one. Sure, the Giants swing from their heels a lot, and that can lead to strikeouts, but they also rank eighth in OPS and ninth in wRC+ vs. right-handed pitchers this season.
I’m betting the scoreboard lights up early and often in this one, and taking the Over in the first five innings.
My best bet: First five innings Over 5 (-114 at SIA)
Giants vs Blue Jays same-game parlay
F5 Over 4.5 alt. line
Bichette 2+ hits
Davis to record an RBI
Let’s stick to the theme of runs and lots of them in this same-game parlay. We start with the best bet, but let’s pay a little extra juice here and make it Over 4.5 in the first five innings.
Next, I’m expecting Bo Bichette to be the catalyst for some of those runs. The Blue Jays shortstop is currently on a 13-game hitting streak where he has a .352 batting average with a .882 OPS. The guy is simply one of the best hitters in baseball. He has four multi-hit games in his last seven tries. Let’s add him to extend this hitting streak in style by getting two or more knocks.
And finally, since I believe both teams are going to do some scoring in this one, let’s add J.D. Davis to record an RBI. Davis is having a solid season by The Bay, hitting for a .289 average with 10 home runs. He’s also the Giants’ top run producer with 44 RBIs this season. These plays combine for a nice +765 payout.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Giants vs Blue Jays moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Blue Jays opened this matchup as roughly -145 home favorites and they have seen the early action, moving the line to the Toronto -155 range. That makes sense considering Winn is making his first career start, on the road no less.
But Bassitt’s slump would give me pause when it comes to laying that amount of juice with the Blue Jays. Toronto has lost three consecutive Bassitt starts and five of his last seven overall. Additionally, the Giants have been a very good team away from home of late, with last night’s loss snapping a 10-game road winning streak.
And if Winn does get in trouble, thanks to long appearances from Alex Wood, Logan Webb, and Ross Stripling the last two games, the Giants’ solid bullpen should be well-rested and ready to step in if needed in, this one.
But that takes me to the total. It hit the board at 9, and that’s where it sits as of Thursday afternoon. Since I’m on the five-inning over I would lean toward the full-game Over as well, but the bullpens are what give me a little pause there.
The Giants’ bullpen ranks second in the MLB in xFIP, and their Top 4 relievers should all be ready for this matchup. The same goes for Toronto. If Bassitt continues his downward trend, Schneider could pull the plug on him early. His Top 4 guys are also coming off an off day.
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Trend to know
The Over is 9-4 in the Giants' last 13 games overall, and 4-1-1 in the Blue Jays' last six home games. Find more MLB betting trends for Giants vs. Blue Jays
Giants vs Blue Jays game info
| Location: | Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON |
| Date: | Thursday, June 29, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 7:07 p.m. ET |
| TV: | MLB Network |
Starting pitchers
Keaton Winn (0-0, 3.75 ERA): This will be Winn's first career start, but he has been used in three bulk situations recently, pitching 12 innings total in his three appearances. Winn is unique because he uses a hard splitter over 60% of the time.
Chris Bassitt (7-5, 4.32 ERA): Bassitt has hit a bit of a rough stretch. The right-hander has pitched just 11 2/3 innings over his last three starts with an ugly WHIP of 2.49 in those contests.
