Sunday Night baseball heads to the Windy City on the 21st anniversary of 9/11.
Both teams have struggled this season. The visiting San Francisco Giants (66-73) are 10.5 games back of the third and final Wild Card spot in the National League, so the playoffs are looking like a longshot.
The Chicago Cubs (58-81) are just 3-7 in their last 10 games overall.
Check out our MLB picks and predictions for the San Francisco Giants and Chicago Cubs on Sunday, September 11.
Giants vs Cubs best odds
Giants vs Cubs picks and predictions
This game is lined close to even, with the Cubs listed between -105 and -110 depending on the book. The prop market is a bit limited considering the starting pitching situations — the Giants are having a bullpen game, while Miley is making just his second start since spending nearly three months on the injured list. Therefore, I’m eyeing the home team for my best bet instead of attacking the prop market or total.
It’s expected the be a windy day in Chicago, to no one’s surprise. The forecast calls for winds of 18 mph blowing out the right field at the time of first pitch. Weather heavily impacts games when handicapping at Wrigley Field, and it’s possible that the wind plays a big factor on Sunday night. I’m not giving a ton of credence to the wind helping either side tonight considering that there is a 100% chance of precipitation, so there’s always a chance for a delay.
The Giants hit left-handed pitching well, ranking 12th in both wOBA and wRC+ on the season. Those numbers may not seem like much, but it’s a vast improvement over their numbers against right-handers (19th in wOBA and 20th in wRC+). They’ve hardly been an offensive force this season, but facing a left-handed starter with the wind blowing out to right field could cure some of those offensive woes.
Here’s why I’m downplaying those concerns. For as good as those numbers look for the whole season, they’re buoyed mostly by early-season performance. They haven’t been as lethal against southpaws lately, ranking 19th in wOBA and 20th in wRC+ in the month of September. They are just 4-12 in their last 16 road games vs. left-handed starters.
It’ll be a bullpen game for the Giants, and that’s a bit concerning for them considering how bad they’ve been in relief this season. As a team, they have the ninth-worst ERA in relief this season (4.24) while posting a grotesque 1.38 WHIP.
The Giants are just 7-20 in their last 27 road games and I expect them to drop another one on Sunday Night.
My best bet: Cubs moneyline (-105 at WynnBET)
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Giants vs Cubs betting preview
Jump to:
•Side analysis •Over/Under analysis •Starting pitchers •Injuries •Weather •Trend to know
Moneyline analysis
Neither team has been anything special this season. The Giants are 5-5 in their last 10 games and have all but fallen out of the Wild Card race barring a miraculous finish to the season. It’s fair to question where this team is at motivationally to end a very disappointing season after winning 107 games a year ago. This has been a steep decline.
The Cubs are just 3-7 in their last 10 games and have a -103 run differential — far worse than the Giants, who are +4 on the year. San Fran has had success in Chicago, going 4-1 in their last five meetings at Wrigley. In the last nine meetings overall, the Giants are 7-2.
As outlined above, I’m not too concerned with those trends as this is a favorable spot for the Cubs at home for Sunday Night Baseball. Miley has been effective when healthy and has a 3.40 xERA and 3.55 FIP. The Giants were once a fearsome bunch against southpaws, but they have mightily regressed as the season has gone along.
The Cubs took Game 1 by a score of 4-2, getting the best of Carlos Rodon. Yesterday saw Logan Webb toss a gem in a 5-2 Giants win. Sunday night’s game will be the decider in this series and I believe the Cubs have the edge if Miley continues to pitch well.
Over/Under analysis
The Giants’ bullpen is nothing special, compiling a 4.24 ERA and 1.38 WHIP on the season. This is not a team very well-equipped for a bullpen game, as will be the case in this one.
Miley has made four starts this season, and the Cubs have gone Over the total in three of those games. With the wind blowing out to right field, it’s possible this doesn’t help the Giants as much as one might anticipate considering it will be blowing to the opposite field for right-handed bats.
The Cubs lineup is nothing to write home about, ranking 21st in wOBA and 23rd in wRC+ in the month of September.
Both teams have trended toward the Under, going 4-0 in each of their last four respective games. The Under is 19-7-2 in the Cubs’ last 28 home games against a team with a losing record. As for the Giants, they are 18-6-3 to the Under in their last 27 games after scoring five or more runs in their previous game.
Although the wind will be blowing out to right field, it is also worth noting that there is a 100% chance of rain in this contest and a delay is possible.
Giants vs Cubs game info
• Location: Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL
• Date: Sunday, September 11, 2022
• First pitch: 8:08 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN
Starting pitchers
John Brebbia (6-1, 2.93 ERA): Brebbia acts as the opener after pitching a scoreless eight inning last night. He’s made 65 appearances this season and 61 of those have come as a reliever, accumulating a 2.93 ERA and 3.50 xERA. Expect the Giants to rotate bullpen arms in this one with no clear starter announced.
Wade Miley (1-0, 3.13 ERA): The veteran left-hander has appeared in only five games this season — all starts. He’s been effective when on the mound, allowing no more than three earned runs in each of his starts. The Cubs have dealt with injuries and absences to the rotation all season, so it was a welcome sight when Miley returned on Tuesday after missing nearly three months on the injured list.
Key injuries
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Betting trend to know
The Giants are 4-12 in their last 16 road games against a left-handed starter. Find more MLB betting trends for Giants vs. Cubs
