The first installment of this three-game series gets underway on Monday with the Chicago Cubs hosting the San Francisco Giants at Wrigley Field. These two clubs last met in June, with Chicago taking two of the three games.
MLB odds have the hosts as -150 favorites with the Giants returning as +115 dogs.
The Cubbies will look to take another series win over San Fran, but Logan Webb may cause problems from the home side's bats. Find out how I'm riding the righty in free MLB picks and predictions for the Giants vs. Cubs on Monday, September 4.
Giants vs Cubs odds
Giants vs Cubs predictions
Logan Webb takes the mound for the San Francisco Giants and is primed to have himself a day. Through 28 starts this season, the right hander boasts a 3.49 ERA and 1.10 WHIP, while possessing a 23.6 K rate. To add on to those impressive numbers, he also ranks in the 81st percentile in Chase rate.
Currently, you can find his strikeout prop at 4.5 at plus money via BetMGM — a number Webb has surpassed in five of his past six starts.
This strikeout success is likely to continue against the Chicago Cubs, a team whom Webb is 2-0 in his career against with five or more Ks in each of those two outings. Through 64 career plate appearances against the righty, this current Chicago lineup possesses a fade-worthy 26.6 K rate and 30.8 Whiff rate.
There’s no denying that the Cubs have been playing some good baseball over the second half of the campaign, which is a product of their strong hitting. With that said, they aren’t as strong in avoiding strikeouts as they rank right around the middle of the league in K percentage when facing right-handed pitching.
Looking at Monday’s projected starting lineup, four of Chicago’s nine hitters possess a K rate north of 21.8% this season. Finally, opposing starting pitchers have recorded five or more strikeouts in five of the past six games against the Cubs.
My best bet: Logan Webb Over 4.5 strikeouts (+110)
Giants vs Cubs same-game parlay
Webb Under 4.5 Ks
Giants ML
Under 9
I already covered the first leg in the best bet section above, now let’s look at the other two.
It has been a great season for LHP Justin Steele, who is slated to take the mound for Chicago. Through 25 starts, Steele is 15-3 with a 2.69 ERA and 1.17 WHIP.
However, his 3.51 xERA suggests that regression is looming — and I believe that expected regression is going to kick in on Monday against a San Francisco team the southpaw has struggled against.
With that said, even if this regression comes to fruition, Steele should still be able to limit the damage against a Giants lineup that ranks in the bottom third of the league in every hitting category across the board, helping the total stay Under 9.0.
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Giants vs Cubs moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Cubs opened as a –134 favorite and have since been bet up to their current price of –138. This minuscule line movement is not shocking, given Steele’s tremendous surface-level stats and the fact that Chicago boasts the stronger lineup.
That brings us to the total, which opened at 9.0 and has remained at that number. There likely will be some give-and-take with this number all the way to the first pitch, as Steele’s expected regression and the Cubs’ strong lineup will attract Over bettors, while the Giants’ poor lineup and two strong pitchers slated to go head-to-head will attract Under bettors.
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Trend to know
Webb has recorded five or more strikeouts in five of his past six starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Giants vs. Cubs
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Giants vs Cubs game info
| Location: | Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL |
| Date: | Monday, September 4, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 2:20 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBCS-Bay Area, Marquee Sports Network |
Starting pitchers
Logan Webb (9-11, 3.49 ERA): It has been a strong campaign for Webb, and his underlying metrics suggest that a solid end to the year is likely given he ranks in the 72nd percentile in xERA. He fared well in his last start against Chicago, allowing just two runs through seven innings en route to a 5-2 win. We could see a similar performance on Monday.
Justin Steele (15-3, 2.69 ERA): Steele boasts some stellar surface-level stats, but his 3.51 xERA suggests that regression is looming as the season winds down. This expected regression could arrive in this contest considering that the lefty is 0-2 in his career against the Giants with a 4.15 ERA and 2.08 WHIP.
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