The San Francisco Giants have lost five straight games heading into the week, but such is life when you face the two best teams in the league in back-to-back series. Next up is a road trip to the desert for a three-game series with the Arizona Diamondbacks starting on June 3.
My Giants vs. Diamondbacks predictions take a look at a total I think is too high, with the Under highlighting my MLB picks for this affair.
Giants vs Diamondbacks prediction
My best bet
Under 9 (-115 at DraftKings)
My analysis
Arizona Diamondbacks starting pitcher Ryne Nelson’s reputation is about as low as it can get for a starting pitcher at the current moment. He’s amassed a 6.02 ERA and 1.76 WHIP heading into Monday’s start with the San Francisco Giants, leading the world at large to believe he’s one of the worst starting pitchers to ever do it.
I don’t think Nelson is the second coming of Greg Maddux, but I also don’t think he’s as bad as his recent performances. The Oregon product has a 4.84 xERA, 4.26 FIP, and 4.31 xFIP — all of which are more indicative of “slightly below average” than “world’s worst starting pitcher”.
So what’s gone wrong? His .383 BABIP is absurdly high and unbearably unlucky considering that number was at .299 a year ago, which is still high but much more down to earth. His barrel rate has actually decreased from 11.6% in 2023 to 7.7% this year and he doesn’t walk many batters (6.9%), so it’s difficult to envision him doing anything other than allowing fewer baserunners going forward.
It’s not as if Nelson is facing a murderers row of boppers tonight. The Giants have posted a 90 wRC+ (24th) and a .288 wOBA (25th) against right-handed pitching in the last 15 days and are still without injured starters LaMonte Wade, Jung Hoo Lee, Michael Conforto, Austin Slater, and Nick Ahmed.
On the other side, San Francisco is going with a bullpen game. The last time the Giants took this approach, they allowed just a single earned run in a loss in a 1-0 loss to the Phillies. Spencer Howard ate up four innings of no-run ball and is primed to be an option again.
I envision this as a low-scoring game and am buying low on Nelson’s stock.
Giants vs Diamondbacks same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 9
Thairo Estrada Under 1.5 total bases
Corbin Carroll Over 1.5 total bases
Thairo Estrada hasn’t found much success against Ryne Nelson in the past, going 1-for-7 (.286 OPS) with three strikeouts. Estrada has been out the last two days with a thumb injury and is considered questionable.
It sounds like he won’t be quite 100% if he suits up and he’s hardly a power hitter, so he’d likely need two base hits to hit this Over and that’s something he’s proven uncapable of doing against Nelson.
The last leg features Diamondbacks star Corbin Carroll to exceed his total bases prop of 1.5 for plus money. I love these odds considering Carroll has obliterated right-handed pitching with a .845 OPS since 2022 and forecasts very well against Howard, who could see bulk innings for the Giants.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Giants vs Diamondbacks odds
Giants vs Diamondbacks live odds
Giants vs Diamondbacks opening odds
- Run line: San Francisco +1.5 (-200) | Arizona -1.5 (+165)
- Moneyline: San Francisco +115 | Arizona -135
- Over/Under: Over Over 9 (-105) | Under 9 (-115)
Giants vs Diamondbacks spread and Over/Under analysis
- San Francisco is just 12-17 on the road this year.
- This is just the third time all year in a non-Coors Field location that San Francisco has seen a total of nine or higher.
- These teams have combined to go 2-5-2 O/U against one another in the last nine matchup.
- Nelson has started four games against the Giants, posting a 3.10 ERA and 1.13 WHIP while holding them to a .681 OPS.
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Giants vs Diamondbacks trend
Arizona is 5-0 in its last five home games against San Francisco. Find more MLB betting trends for Giants vs. Diamondbacks
Giants vs Diamondbacks game info
| Location: | Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ |
| Date: | Monday, 6-3-2024 |
| First pitch: | 9:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FS1 |
| Giants starting pitcher: | TBD |
| Diamondbacks starting pitcher: | Ryne Nelson (3-4, 6.02 ERA) |
Giants vs Diamondbacks latest injuries
Giants vs Diamondbacks weather
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