The Cleveland Guardians (54-32) have lost just one series at home this season but now are playing from behind after falling 4-2 in Game 1 against the red-hot San Francisco Giants (44-45), who have won eight of their last 11 games.
Saturday’s game features two young left-handed starting pitchers in Kyle Harrison and Logan Allen. Both teams have hit lefties well, which has me eyeing the total with my Giants vs. Guardians predictions and MLB picks for July 6.
Giants vs Guardians prediction
My best bet
F5 innings Over 4.5 (-120 at DraftKings)
My analysis
Bob Melvin and the San Francisco Giants get some much-needed rotation support as Kyle Harrison returns from an ankle sprain to feature in today’s game against the Cleveland Guardians. While it’s definitely a boost to have the promising 22-year-old back healthy, he has a tough matchup in his return.
Cleveland destroys LHP with a 119 wRC+ (fifth) and a .333 wOBA (sixth) on the year. If we isolate for recent performance, those numbers jump up to a 140 wRC+ and a .364 wOBA.
Harrison’s surface-level 3.96 ERA looks good enough at first sight, but a closer inspection of his profile is off-putting. He’s not a big swing-and-miss guy (25th percentile chase rate, 35th percentile whiff rate) and allows a lot of worrisome contact quality (14th percentile barrel rate, 15th percentile average exit velocity).
Cleveland trots out Logan Allen, a 25-year-old hurler with a 5.75 ERA, 5.72 xERA, and 5.63 FIP. He’s been downright ineffective across the board and allows very poor contact quality (fifth percentile hard-hit rate, sixth percentile barrel rate). He throws his four-seamer nearly 50% of the time but it’s a poor offering — it’s slow (91.2 average mph) and hitters feast upon it with a .335 BA and .604 SLG.
San Francisco inflicts damage upon LHP with a 117 wRC+ (seventh) and a .329 wOBA (eighth) on the year. Melvin can send forth a lineup with nine right-handed bats if he so chooses, which can cause Allen trouble.
I’m isolating for the First Five Innings (F5) total and playing the Over at 4.5. Cleveland has the best bullpen in the league with a 2.57 ERA and 1.04 WHIP, so I’d prefer to attack the starting pitching by avoiding the full game total. Both lineups have been great against LHP and we have two young, hittable lefties on the mound.
Giants vs Guardians same-game parlay (SGP)
Both teams to score 3+ runs
Heliot Ramos Over 1.5 total bases
Jorge Soler Over 1.5 total bases
Since DraftKings won't allow me to parlay the F5 total, I'll replace it with both teams to score 3+ runs. The Giants and Guardians each set up well offensively and it’s hard to pick one team over the other.
Some bats that stand out from an MLB player props perspective are Heliot Ramos and Jorge Soler of the Giants, who both mash LHP. Ramos has taken the world by storm with a 156 wRC+ and a .387 wOBA through 52 games. He’s obliterated LHP with a 267 wRC+ and .549 wOBA, drawing as many walks as strikeouts.
Soler has found a home at the top of the lineup and it’s perhaps not a coincidence that SF’s hot stretch has lined up with the lineup change. The slugger has a 131 wRC+ and a .350 wOBA against southpaws.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Giants vs Guardians odds
Giants vs Guardians live odds
Giants vs Guardians opening odds
- Run line: San Francisco +1.5 (-190) | Cleveland -1.5 (+160)
- Moneyline: San Francisco +110 | Cleveland -130
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-110) | Under 8.5 (-110)
Giants vs Guardians spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Giants have dominated this matchup, winning eight of their last 10 against Cleveland.
- On the other hand, the Guardians have been great at home (28-11) while the Giants haven’t been great on the road (19-26). Cleveland has lost just one home series this year.
- The Giants are 5-2 O/U in Kyle Harrison’s last seven starts.
Giants vs Guardians trend
Cleveland has gone Over the total in all six games that Logan Allen has started at home. He has a 6.75 ERA and 1.60 WHIP in those contests. Find more MLB betting trends for Giants vs. Guardians
Giants vs Guardians game info
| Location: | Progressive Field, Cleveland, OH |
| Date: | Saturday, 7-6-2024 |
| First pitch: | 4:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBC Sports Bay Area, Bally Sports Ohio |
| Giants starting pitcher: | Kyle Harrison (4-3, 3.96 ERA) |
| Guardians starting pitcher: | Logan Allen (8-4, 5.75 ERA) |
Giants vs Guardians latest injuries
Giants vs Guardians weather
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